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This is a well known sporting Cliché, I was wondering if it applied to horses. So I came up with 2 ideas for a system, firstly and most simply, any horse that is the sole LTO winner in a race. That particular system has thrown out 13 selections tomorrow, which seems a few too many, so if we add in that they must have run in the last 3 months (90 Days) that brings it down to 10, still seems a few too many. So lets throw in a wining distance filter, min 5 lengths for a jump race 1 length for a flat, that brings it down to 4 horses, much more like it, so to re-cap, here are the rules.
Must be the only LTO winner in the race
Must have run within the last 90 days
Must have won last race by at least 5 length (jumps), or 1 length (flat)Here are tomorrows selections
A11:55 The Last Day
A2:35 Alpha Des Obeaux
C1:35 Ice Cool Champs
W1:55 Aristo Du Plessis
-1.5
That’s the first idea, the second was to find the 5 races with the 5 horses with the greatest victory % in their last 10 starts, here they are:-
A12:25 Play The Ace – 50% strike rate
A3:10 Rathlin Rose – 50%
C2:10 Steel Summit – 60%
S1:45 Finians Oscar 60%
S2:55 Fox Norton 60%+2
So the first method gave 1 winner, however if I had gone with the original 13 selections there would have been 2 more winners in there, wouldn’t have made it profitable though. What is interesting is the Play The Ace, who won in the second system was one of the ones cut so featured in both lists, and was cut due to winning margin being less than 5 lengths, it was 4!
Need to have a good look at the other 2 that won and why they were excluded, bit of refinement needed, but interesting results, found a couple of winners
rab123.
You really must be crowned as King of the Systems for 2017.
Good luck and as always I will watch with interest.
By way of filters Anthony Gibson suggests: –
Recent form being 1st. 2nd or 3rd (You have that covered)
CD. C. or BF (any of these withing the formline)
Given the nod via Spotlight (RP) but I guess any chosen pundit may do.
Billy's Outback Shack
Sole LTO Winners, I have reduced criteria for winning distance to 3 lengths:-
H2:30 Top Notch NR
C1:15 Lighthouse Warrier 2nd
C2:50 Billys Hope
C3:20 Broder NR
C3:50 Shar Whats The Rush NR
P2:35 Don’t Let Go
P3:40 Active Force MRMost Wins, all have 50% strike rate over last 10 outings
H2:30 Top Notch NR
C1:50 Granny Bid
C2:20 In De Sceaux
C2:50 Shattered Love
P2:05 Sizing JohnTop notch is the only one to make both lists, regardless of winning distance.
Cancelled racing, and lots of non runners, so for idea 1 there were only 3 runners, with an unplaced and a 2nd place.
With the most wins, 4 runners and 3 winners
And Actually I made a mistake when I posted this there were 2 horses that made both lists, Top Notch, and Sizing John
Being such a nosey sod I checked this idea with my own blend of filters as posted: –
Only horse having won LTO in the race
Raced within 90 days
CD/D/BF in the formline
Tipped (today in the Mirror it was Bouverie giving the nod)
One selection only CHOOSEYOURWEAPON 1.00 Chepstow which Won at 5/6. I have not got a clue if a better price could have been had.
ICE COOL CHAMPS (1.35 Chepstow) was almost interesting but was not tipped and did not win.
This is interesting rab123 and if there is racing tomorrow I will check to see how TOP NOTCH & SUN CLOUD get on.
Billy's Outback Shack
3 Selections for LTO winners tomorrow:-
F2:15 Ramses De Teillee 2nd
S2:00 Good Time Ahead
S2:30 Abraj Dubai
Can’t find anything with at least a 40% strike rate in the last 10 runs so no selections for highest win rate tommorow
Very disapointed with Abraj Dubai, I had very high hopes once I saw that Hugh Taylor had tipped it.
Doh! Oh dear bladebaster I owe you an apology thinking rab123 started this thread.
Billy's Outback Shack
Doh! Oh dear bladebaster I owe you an apology thinking rab123 started this thread.
I was wondering LOL, no problem mate
2 selections for LTO winners
L1:35 Noble Peace
L3:15 Entertaining Ben1 Selection for strike rate
L1:35 Storm King 40%
First time the 2 systems have thrown up different selections in the same race.
all failed to produce
LTO Winners with C&D wins
L3:00 Pink Ribbon
W3:50 Cookie Ring
W4:25 Grey DestinyLing 2:00 Make Music 40% Strike rate just missed out on a place at 25/1
Interesting, I think this is still worth playing around with.
Sole LTO Winners with C&D Form
T12:00 Brahms De Clermont
TR12:55 Persian WindHighest Strike Rates
T2:45 Top Notch 50%
T3:15 Dream Bolt 50%
C7:45 You’re Cool 40% PlaceI think its time to start keeping a tally on whether this is profitable or not, anything over 12/1 with 8+ runners will be 0.5 points E/W
Sole LTO with C&D Form
C3:03 Kingswell Theater
D1:35 Fixed Rate-2
Highest Strike Rate
C12:10 Spirit Girl 80%
C3:40 Jester Jet 40%
D1:00 Stowaway Magic 40%-3
No sole LTO winners with CD form
Highest strike rates
C1:20 Theo 50%
C1:55 Dueaville Dancer 50%
C3:40 Gravefull Legend 50%Graceful Legend placed at 20/1
Evens for the day / -3
LTO Winner with C&D form
S2:35 Stepover NR
Highest strike rates
S2:35 Stepover 40% NR
N1:20 Drumacoo 40%-1 / -4
LTO
M12:40 Lady London 2nd by a SH
P1:50 Frank N Fair
P3:00 Stoical Patient+5.5 / +3.5
Highest Win Rates
P1:50 Riddlestown 50%
W3:10 Asure Welcome 50%-2 / -5
LTO
F1:40 Cody Wyoming
S3:30 Pearl Acclaim+4 / +7.5
Highest Strike Rates
C2:50 Halcyon Days 60%
S2:30 Tatting 50% NR
S3:30 Gnad 40%-2 / -7
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