- This topic has 21 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’m a massive Willie Mullins fan and he’s probably the greatest NH trainer of all time in my opinion but I can’t help but notice his key horses get injured or retired prematurely way too often. Maybe it’s a case of the good ones getting hurt more easily as they’re quicker and Willie has more good ones than anyone else.
A few off the top of my head below :
Douvan – Ran only 3 times after the 2017 Festival when he was only 7yo. Ran his last race as a 9yo
Faugheen – Was out for almost 2 years after Jan 2016 and missed a large chunk of his prime on the track.
Ferny Hollow – Only 3 runs in almost 3 years and now out for the season once again
Artic Fire – Out for a year between 16 – 17 and then out for a further year 17 – 18. Missed quite a chunk of his prime and his career at the top was virtually over at 8yo.
James Du Berlais – Highly rated youngster hasn’t been seen since finishing 2nd to Klassical Dream as a 5yo April 21.
Annie Power – Never raced past 8yo
Hurricane Fly – Had a great career but did miss back to back Festivals in 2009 & 2010
Monkfish – RSA winner hasn’t been seen since April 21
Klassical Dream – Out from December 2019 to April 2021, missed two festivals.
The Nice Guy – Super exciting young horse was due to go novice chasing but has now been ruled out for the season.
Redemption Day – 2nd to Facile Vega in Punchestown Champion Bumper. Has been ruled out for the season.
Black Hercules – Out for almost 3 years after Jan 2017. Career was virtually over at 8yo.
Mikael D’Haguenet – Missed a year after his brilliant novice hurdle campaign. Was never the same horse afterwards.
Footpad – Career was virtually over at 8yo
Benie Des Dieux – Retired at 9yo
Djakadam – Retired at 9yo
Penhill – Another burdened by injuries and retired at 9yoThe likes of Chacun Pour Soi, Min and Energumene have also missed Cheltenham festivals but are having/had good careers overall.
A lot of this could be down to newer training methods asking more of horses at younger ages. If so, that’s a phenomenon not exclusive to Willie Mullins and him having a greater share of the talent pool means these examples are going to crop up a lot. There are also reasons to suggest the breed is getting weaker in Ireland with the absurd obsession with sons of Galileo in National Hunt breeding (doesn’t explain the French breds in your sample, nor the older horses). Something to bare in mind in the future. You’d also have to look at which French yards/ptp yards are these horses starting in. Is Mullins the cause, if there is indeed a link, or is it the feeder yards he & Harold Kirk recruit from?
I suppose with the strength in depth and weight of numbers, some of his good horses will get injured from time to time.
I suppose you could argue that he’s good at getting fragile horses to win races and good at nursing horses back from injury. Bit like Nicky Henderson. It’s beyond me how he keeps his owners happy when he’s running so many horses in the same race. Am I right in thinking that years ago he very rarely brought horses over here to run in anything other than the Festival or Kempton at Christmas. I know he used to bring flat horses over because I backed Sesenta for the Ebor but don’t think he brought jumping horses over here.
“Maybe it’s a case of the good ones getting hurt more easily”
I’m not sure that they do get hurt more easily, we just notice them more.
I looked up the other runners from Douvan’s first race for Willie at Gowran on 22.11.142nd- Sizing John. One glittering open chase season winning the 3 gold cups at the age of 7. Got injured part way through next season and had a layoff of 733 days before his last race at the age of 9, when he fell. Total 21 starts under rules.
3rd – Ange D’Or Javilex. Passed through various hands, had layoffs of 499 and 685 days, never won again. Final race finished a remote last in a beginners chase aged 9. Total 20 starts under rules.
4th Henry Higgins. Raced sporadically thereafter winning once. Last race at the age of 6 on his only chase start. Total 24 starts of which 14 NH.
5th Modem who fared better and had 55 career starts. Went off to race in America in the end, last start in the American Grand National at the age of 9.
6th Vote of Confidence. Passed through a few hands winning a couple for Elliott aged 6, then on the slide. One indifferent start for Dan Skelton aged 7, had 3 P2P starts after leaving Skeltons, finishing none of them, aged 8. 36 rules starts.
7th Space Ship. Won 2 races at 5 and won at 6. Raced sporadically thereafter with layoffs, pulled up on last start after more than a year off aged 9. 41 starts.
8th Snakes and Ladders. One win on the Flat on his penultimate start aged 5. 20 starts total
I think the grand old stagers popping round in veterans chases are the exception rather than the rule.
I think you can chuck the mares out of your calculations as well, it’s easier on average to put a mare in foal at 8 or 9 than when she’s in double figures especially if she has never foaled before; most hurdlers are starting to decline a little by then so one foal is worth more than a year’s worth of 3rd and 4th placed prize money.
Good thread. My summary would be: some horses have the talent but lack the constitution: some have the constitution but not the talent: the rare ones have both.
As an aside, look at Shishkin: racked up a row of wins in easy races at long odds on – none of which gave him any experience in battling. He gets in a firefight at Ascot and has to dredge up everything he has and bottom himself. Energumene was in the same fight, but bounced back to win twice since. He too, of course, will have his bottom, but it might well be much deeper than Shishkin’s. He did not get Shishkin’s level of talent, but was blessed with a stronger constitution.
Former Mullins charge Sempre Medici, who was sent to the US after his 6yo season, was still racing this year at age 12. He won a mid-level handicap this past spring.
Douvan was never the same after that first fence howler in the Champion Chase. In retrospect, I’m sure Ruby wishes he’d pulled him up stat. Looked unbeatable before that
Here’s an excellent article that might offer clues about longevity in the racehorse
On the same topic, Ruby received plaudits after winning on Kilutagh Vic, after KV did the splits at the last fence. A very talented horse, became v inconsistent afterwards. If Ruby had accepted defeat, might have had a more productive career.
A lot of the French horses (Kauto being an obvious exception) tend to burn brighter earlier because they are jumping at 3-4 years of age and Mullins does/has sourced a lot of his top horses from France.
Add in the fact that the better horses seem to be much more mollycoddled by trainers than in the past and race much less frequently (you would be counting all your Christmases if you see them more than 5 times a year) and only on a very narrow window of ground conditions, which I personally believe (without any hard evidence to back it up mind you) makes them less battle hardened and perhaps strangely more susceptible to picking up injuries.
Also whilst some of the English trainers took great umbridge to Elliot’s comment about their top horses not tending to clash against each other prior to Cheltenham (unless forced to by outside forces), there is some truth to that argument and that could explain while after having a tough race at Cheltenham it takes them longer to recover or in some cases they do not seem the same horse again (Might Bite a prime example who only had one win and a 3rd place in 10 races after his attritional Gold Cup 2nd, in fact his form by that time had almost as many letters in it as numbers).
Willie is more likely to acquire and/or train a higher calibre of animal than most. He has 200+ horses in training and because a lot of them are very good, this equals increased expectations which in turn, creates increased disappointment when one of them gets injured. Nobody talks about the 100+ horses he keeps fit every year who just aren’t good enough. It’s a bit like humans thinking we have some sort of sensory gift to tell when someone is staring at us when in reality (and this has been proven) we only remember the times when we look up and someone is staring but forget the thousands of times when we look up and someone isn’t. Same principle. You’ve taken a 10 year window to list 17 horses, which is a tiny number in comparison to the horses Willie will have trained in that time? How many has he kept sound that you cannot name? 17 is a tiny number and what’s bizarre is of those 17, they won 17 races at the festival! I say bizarre because people who follow racing should know that horses are athletes competing at the very top level and injuries are more likely to occur when horses are delivering gut busting efforts on more competitive races. If you reach the top level (like pretty much every horse you name), you’re taking in multiple Grade 1’s to achieve that reputation which takes it toll. I really don’t think this a good thread at all.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.