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Who Will Win The Cheltenham Gold Cup?

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  • #1028
    FlatSeasonLover
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    • Total Posts 2065

    I did an identical thread to this last year and it meant that all Gold Cup talk stayed in one place and it didn’t clutter up the forum.

    Simple question then, who will win the Gold Cup. Kauto Star is going to go off a short-priced favourite barring a minor miracle, and all of the horses that are running in the Gold Cup have all had their prep runs (if they had one). Is Kauto Star a good thing? Will it complete the course (8/11 to do so I believe)?

    For what its worth, I think Kauto Star will win. It’s not my idea of a bet however, and I have tried to get it beat all season (except its first run) with no success. I am quite taken with Exotic Dancer’s progress through the ranks, but for the purpose of the poll have voted Kauto Star. Having said that, my antepost bets for the Gold Cup were Trabolgan, Star De Mohaison and Monets Garden so i can’t really comment!

    #43491
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Well I’ve backed Exotic Dancer and I wouldn’t swap bets with anyone else.

    The horse has had a good season improving all the way through it and probably just as importantly his best two performances have been when stepped up in trip to three miles and slightly in excess of three miles. He wasn’t stopping at Cheltenham last time and jumped the last in the style of a horse with petrol in the tank. An extra furlong should suit rather than hinder him and he’s already run to a mark high enough to give him a winning chance. He won’t mind the ground whatever it is and he’ll be switched off early and when others are crying enough late on he’ll be getting stronger. I think he can run to a mark of mid to high 170’s and I think he has a hell of a chance.

    Kauto Star if he stays and jumps error free he’ll win but I don’t think he will if he does jump round I think he’ll be running on almost empty up the hill.

    War Of Attrition needs good ground he probably won’t get it and in any case his win last season was in a poor affair and only earned him a rating of around 172/173. He will need a better performance to win this time year.

    In Compliance has had problems and won’t stay anyway, neither will The Listener or Racing Demon.

    Our Vic won’t jump round clearly in a competitive race like this and probably won’t get home either.

    State Of Play needs to improve but he’s a bit of a dark horse, lightly raced and he can run a good race.

    One at a big price – Beef Or Salmon maybe? I know he doesn’t travel well but he ran well enough at Haydock earlier in the season and if the ground is really soft and he jumps OK he may surprise a few he’ll stay every yard and could reach a place if he can find enough early pace to stay in touch.

    Gotta be Exotic Dancer for me though.

    (Edited by Flash at 2:04 am on Feb. 25, 2007)

    #43492
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Quote: from Flash on 2:01 am on Feb. 25, 2007[br]Well I’ve backed Exotic Dancer and I wouldn’t swap bets with anyone else.

    The horse has had a good season improving all the way through it and probably just as importantly his best two performances have been when stepped up in trip to three miles and slightly in excess of three miles. He wasn’t stopping at Cheltenham last time and jumped the last in the style of a horse with petrol in the tank. An extra furlong should suit rather than hinder him and he’s already run to a mark high enough to give him a winning chance. He won’t mind the ground whatever it is and he’ll be switched off early and when others are crying enough late on he’ll be getting stronger. I think he can run to a mark of mid to high 170’s and I think he has a hell of a chance.

    Kauto Star if he stays and jumps error free he’ll win but I don’t think he will if he does jump round I think he’ll be running on almost empty up the hill.

    War Of Attrition needs good ground he probably won’t get it and in any case his win last season was in a poor affair and only earned him a rating of around 172/173. He will need a better performance to win this time year.

    In Compliance has had problems and won’t stay anyway, neither will The Listener or Racing Demon.

    Our Vic won’t jump round clearly in a competitive race like this and probably won’t get home either.

    State Of Play needs to improve but he’s a bit of a dark horse, lightly raced and he can run a good race.

    One at a big price – Beef Or Salmon maybe? I know he doesn’t travel well but he ran well enough at Haydock earlier in the season and if the ground is really soft and he jumps OK he may surprise a few he’ll stay every yard and could reach a place if he can find enough early pace to stay in touch.

    Gotta be Exotic Dancer for me though.

    #43494
    Flash
    Member
    • Total Posts 1144

    Sorry, posted twice in error. Can Admin delete one please.

    #43495
    FlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    You can delete yourself you know, just edit your post and put deleted or sorry double post.

    It is interesting what you say about Exotic Dancer. Its actually a horse I have bigged up both on here and another forum, as it has been good prices everytime it has run this season. I got it running to 173 last time, but Kauto Star sets the standard with two 177+s. (Yeah I’m tight with my ratings).

    Exotic Dancer has improved for every run this season and is lightly raced over fences. Having said that, it has had a distant view of Kauto Star’s rear-end twice already this season and IF Kauto Star does not make any serious mistakes, I don’t see how the form can be reversed. Will Kauto Star stay? Well it hasn’t looked like stopping but we cannot be sure I suppose.

    #43496
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Kauto will stay. Absolutely nothing to suggest he wont

    I think a lot of people could be looking back at the race wondering why they didnt back the bleedin obvious<br>

    #43498
    Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    If the race was over 6f as suggested elsewhere, I reckon it would be between Ashleybrook and Les Arcs (depending on what fences they use), but as the race is somewhat unimaginatively staged over 3m 2f again at Chelters, I’ll go with Kauto Star by thirty lengths. Go on Kato!!!

    #43500
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    There was a merchant in Baghdad who sent his servant to market to buy provisions and in a little while the servant came back, white and trembling, and said, Master, just now when I was in the market-place I was jostled by a woman in the crowd and when I turned I saw it was Death that jostled me. She looked at me and made a threatening gesture; now, lend me your horse, and I will ride away from the city and advoid my fate. I will go to Samarra and there Death will not find me. The merchant lent him his horse, and the servant mounted it, and dug his spurs in its flanks and as fast as the horse could gallop he went. Then the merchant went down to the market-place and he saw me standing in the crowd, and he came to me and said, why did you make a threatening gesture to my servant when you saw him this morning? That was not a threatening gesture, I said, it was only a start of surprise. I was astonished to see him in Baghdad, for I have an appointment with him tonight in Samarra.<br>                                                      W Somerset Maugham

    <br>Kauto Star will win. <br>

    #43501
    Danny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    War Of Attrition for me i can see Kauto Star hitting one of the fences hard and when you do that at cheltenham your more than likely to fall War Of Attrition won last year against a decent field and without Kauto Star i’d go for him.

    #43504
    jonny1ph
    Member
    • Total Posts 44

    I am going for The Listener if the ground is not too soft. The horse was not expected to win last time out and will come on for the run. <br>Kauto Star is lay of the meeting imo based purely on its unreliable jumping.  

    #43505
    dave 22
    Member
    • Total Posts 339

    how can you say the listener wasnt expected to win last time out? he was odds on favourite so someone must have thought he would win. i would say softer the better for the listener, just ride him to get the trip rather than go off like a 2 miler!

    #43506
    jonny1ph
    Member
    • Total Posts 44

    I believe his odds were based on the Lexus form. <br>I was told before his last outing he would come on for the race. <br>I feel if the ground is too soft and the pace is relentless he will struggle to get home at Cheltenham.

    (Edited by jonny1ph at 7:26 pm on Feb. 25, 2007)

    #43508
    PAULCS
    Member
    • Total Posts 529

    <br>I want Kauto to win as he’s really lit up the season but my head says War Of Attrition.

    Whether it was a bad race or not last year, he’s been there & done it – will jump round, acts on the course, stays, has a turn of foot so cracking value at the moment IMO. Only if the ground is heavy will I not back him and I’ll probably have a small e/w on Exotic Dancer because he loves Cheltenham.

    The ground looks like it is going to be soft at best so you are going to need to stay more like 3m4f to get home and I just don’t see Kauto Star doing that especially after his awesome win in the Tingle Creek.

    Racing Demon may surprise a few people but won’t stay when it comes down to it and State of Play looks very interesting but it’s all about guesswork with him as he’s never raced against anything as classy as the horses I’ve mentioned.

    #43510
    johnjdonoghue
    Member
    • Total Posts 994

    War of Attrition for me, if you didn’t already know. I think Kauto Star’s jumping will be his downfall.

    JohnJ.

    #43511
    Danny
    Member
    • Total Posts 790

    Surprised L’ami isn’t in the poll would have thought he’d have a better chance than most based on his run against Kauto last time out he must have been what a neck behind which is the closest anythings got to Kauto this season so if kauto falls L’ami must have a great chance and if Kauto stays up Lami must still have a great chance.

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