Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › Who Will Burst First?
- This topic has 31 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 6 months ago by stevecaution.
-
AuthorPosts
-
March 28, 2013 at 18:27 #434199
Don’t think any horse has won at 5f then won a 2000 Guineas
Not sure on that statistic but Red Rum won over 5f at two!!
It used to be quite common. Half of the winners of the 2000 Guineas in the 1970s won over five furlongs beforehand. High Top, Mon Fils, Nonoalco, Nebbiolo and Tap On Wood.
I think MarkTT may have been waiting for someone to look up for him who was the last one to do it.
March 28, 2013 at 20:14 #434207Don’t think any horse has won at 5f then won a 2000 Guineas
Not sure on that statistic but Red Rum won over 5f at two!!
It used to be quite common. Half of the winners of the 2000 Guineas in the 1970s won over five furlongs beforehand. High Top, Mon Fils, Nonoalco, Nebbiolo and Tap On Wood.
I think MarkTT may have been waiting for someone to look up for him who was the last one to do it.
What 5f race did Mon Fils win ?
March 28, 2013 at 21:40 #434212Still can’t have Dawn Approach winning the Guineas. Looked beaten a furlong and a half out in the Dewhurst and can see something skipping clear of him in the dip and he not being able to overhaul.
Granted decent ground George Vancouver is the one to be on at the prices.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
March 28, 2013 at 22:44 #434216It used to be quite common. Half of the winners of the 2000 Guineas in the 1970s won over five furlongs beforehand. High Top, Mon Fils, Nonoalco, Nebbiolo and Tap On Wood.
I think MarkTT may have been waiting for someone to look up for him who was the last one to do it.
What 5f race did Mon Fils win ?
Mon Fils won the Warminster Maiden Stakes for 2yo colts and geldings over five furlongs at Salisbury; the 4:15 on Wednesday 10th May 1972. He won by two lengths and a head from Cootamundra and Double Value and thirteen others. His Starting Price was 10/1. The winning time was 1 min 8.18 sec. It is Race Number 609 in the Raceform Up-to-date Form Book Flat Annual 1972.
March 29, 2013 at 11:13 #434251Dawn Approach definitely won’t win the Derby more likely to be Kingsbarns filling that slot if all goes well and he comes through his setback which has taken him out of the Guineas.
However, Dawn Approach has more than a good chance of winning the Guineas if Jim Bolger can iron out the problems that saw him going up and down on the spot for a bit before committing and producing a blistering turn of foot in the Dewhurst last year. The speed that he found when he did decide to go for home can only be described as the sprouting of wings it was amazing to see. I was at Newmarket that day looking down from the Higher Stands and at one point it looked like he was beaten and in the next breath he was lengthening his stride and then amazingly eased at the line.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion of how they read that race but IMO he’s going to be even better in 2013 and will keep his unbeaten record..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...March 29, 2013 at 12:35 #434263It used to be quite common. Half of the winners of the 2000 Guineas in the 1970s won over five furlongs beforehand. High Top, Mon Fils, Nonoalco, Nebbiolo and Tap On Wood.
I think MarkTT may have been waiting for someone to look up for him who was the last one to do it.
What 5f race did Mon Fils win ?
Mon Fils won the Warminster Maiden Stakes for 2yo colts and geldings over five furlongs at Salisbury; the 4:15 on Wednesday 10th May 1972. He won by two lengths and a head from Cootamundra and Double Value and thirteen others. His Starting Price was 10/1. The winning time was 1 min 8.18 sec. It is Race Number 609 in the Raceform Up-to-date Form Book Flat Annual 1972.
Ah, right. I think the stat concerns winning a 5f race at listed or group level.
It was in the RP a few years ago.
March 29, 2013 at 12:43 #434267Dawn Approach definitely won’t win the Derby more likely to be Kingsbarns filling that slot if all goes well and he comes through his setback which has taken him out of the Guineas.
However, Dawn Approach has more than a good chance of winning the Guineas if Jim Bolger can iron out the problems that saw him going up and down on the spot for a bit before committing and producing a blistering turn of foot in the Dewhurst last year. The speed that he found when he did decide to go for home can only be described as the sprouting of wings it was amazing to see. I was at Newmarket that day looking down from the Higher Stands and at one point it looked like he was beaten and in the next breath he was lengthening his stride and then amazingly eased at the line.
Everyone is entitled to their opinion of how they read that race but IMO he’s going to be even better in 2013 and will keep his unbeaten record..Jac
Richard Hannon had a 2yr old in 2004 called Valentin and it’s first run was at Ascot. It was last half way and appeared to think it was a fish. Suddenly something clicked because it shot off, passed the entire field and won by three lengths. Have never seen anything like it by a horse on it’s debut.
Came 2nd in the Princess Margaret a few weeks later but never won again.
March 29, 2013 at 14:28 #434273Ah, right. I think the stat concerns winning a 5f race at listed or group level.
It was in the RP a few years ago.
Ah! Good! It all sounds OK for Dawn Approach winning the 2000 Guineas, because his five furlong win was only in an ordinary Maiden Stakes, too.
March 29, 2013 at 16:06 #434275committing and producing a blistering turn of foot in the Dewhurst last year. The speed that he found when he did decide to go for home can only be described as the sprouting of wings.
Strange then that the race report writer chose to describe it thus:-
"ridden to challenge over 1f out, driven to lead inside final furlong, forged clear"
Are you sure you took those rose-tinted specs off before the race?
Seriously though, I can’t agree that he sprouted wings that day. I thought Leitrim Mor was a bit tired in front and only kept second because George Vancouver didn’t really get home on the ground that day.
I have nothing against Dawn Approach but he’s very short odds now and I have a worry about him on faster ground. He only ran once on good last year, in the Coventry, and he was hard pressed from a fair way out before drifting slightly and winning by his smallest margin thus far. His Father was beaten twice on GF and once on Good ground, so it is a question mark until proven otherwise. Not that we are likely to get fast ground any time soon LOL
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
March 29, 2013 at 19:50 #434308As you say Jacqui it’s all about opinions and individual perception, but if he takes as long in the Guineas to get shifting as he does here I’ll be absolutely amazed if he’s in the first two let alone win it. If we have an even average renewal of the first classic I think he’ll be too far adrift by the time he’s ready to run his race.
You seem to have a very pronounced emotional attachment to him, so I do hope he wins for you, but I just cannot convince myself. I have a small saver bet on him at 12’s just in case I’m wrong but I honestly think I’ve done my cash. If he beats his field in good style though I’ll be the first to hold my hands up. Good luck.
March 29, 2013 at 22:42 #434333As you say Jacqui it’s all about opinions and individual perception, but if he takes as long in the Guineas to get shifting as he does here I’ll be absolutely amazed if he’s in the first two let alone win it. If we have an even average renewal of the first classic I think he’ll be too far adrift by the time he’s ready to run his race.
You seem to have a very pronounced emotional attachment to him, so I do hope he wins for you, but I just cannot convince myself. I have a small saver bet on him at 12’s just in case I’m wrong but I honestly think I’ve done my cash. If he beats his field in good style though I’ll be the first to hold my hands up. Good luck.
Hammy I’ve watched that video over and over again and convinced myself that come Guineas Day we will be seeing a different Dawn Approach turn out, if he is left to idle like that in the Guineas then I agree he will get beaten, but he won’t.
You’re right about my getting an emotional attachment to the horse I have this really strong feeling that he is going to put all the bad vibes to bed on the day and win the seasons first Classic in style and virtually unchallenged. I had a similar vibe about a certain Sea the Stars so I would hang onto that 12/1 voucher Hammy..pay day is coming
Promise I will not say another word about DA until he has run the race, although there is a hint that he may run in the Greenham at Newbury before the Guineas, if he wins that he will be virtually unbackable on the day.
I’ll let Jim Bolger have the last word, I think it was something along the lines of
AWESOME
:-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9pZxN8QfAc
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...March 30, 2013 at 16:31 #434437My dog didn’t fancy Dawn Approach for the 2000 Guineas but now that he’s watched the Dewhurst again he can’t wait to get down to Ladbrokes tomorrow:-
http://i73.photobucket.com/albums/i237/scorrie57/RoseTintedGlasses_zps60316d00.jpg
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
March 31, 2013 at 00:51 #434504@stevecaution.. He’d be barking mad not too.
I wondered where my rose tinted specs went, do you think your dog would let me have them back for May 4th.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 6, 2013 at 09:49 #435449I voted for Reckless Abandon thinking he would be taking in the Guineas but if now going sprinting his bubble may stay intact longer. Changed now to Kingbarns.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
April 20, 2013 at 13:40 #436853Today is the day I reckon. Rosdhu Queen is tackling 7F and has a profile of a precocious sort who might not train on. Add in the stable having had some disappointing runners recently and it looks ripe for a pop today. Nobody has selected her so it looks like a rollover for who will burst second.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.