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It’s that time of year when big reputations and/or great expectations are put on the line. Inevitably a bubble or two will be popped. Just for a bit of fun I’ve picked four of each sex who were unbeaten last season and are prominent for Classic or sprinting honours this year. Who’s O will go first, as they say in the USA?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
My vote was cast on Certify. Starting to look weak on the 1000 Guineas front with Just The Judge joint favourite with some firms now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m hoping Toronado will burst a few of those bubbles with one hit, although I’ve come around to the thinking it’s going to be more possible in the Derby rather than the Guineas…….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Right who’s the 2 Muppets that think its going to be the 2000gns
WinnerDawn Approach
? C’mon identify yourselves and explain why.
I was the other to vote for Certify, on the basis suspect she has less scope to develop from 2 to 3 than other fillies
Danny…I think Dawn Approach will WIN the Guineas and not run in the Derby, will be aimed more at races around 1m2f in 2013.
He is built more like a sprinter than his sire and all his doubters will be amazed at his turn of foot when he wins the race that Henrythenavigator denied his dad.
Dawn Approach’s bubble will not burst it will keep getting bigger and better.
Guess that means..Kingsbarns, Reckless Abandon and Mars will all pop at the same time if they all turn out for the 2000 Guineas.
(Voted Mars as couldn’t vote all 3)Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Reasonably early on last season Jim Bolger seemed pretty insistent that a mile was as far as Dawn Approach was likely to be tried over. He doesn’t strike me as a stayer at all and I wouldn’t touch him for the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jim Bolger was also "pretty insistent" that New Approach wouldn’t be running in The Derby, and that was a whole lot nearer to the Derby than now.
New Approach’s stamina index figure is 7.5 – pretty low for Derby winning horses. In fact i think the last decade the lowest figure has been for Sir Percy / Mark Of Esteem on 8.6 and that was a bad race.
The dam’s sire does not have one winning progeny beyond 9 furlongs but has a 28% strike rate with sprinters.
I’d say a Derby was unlikely for Dawn Approach.
Jim Bolger was also "pretty insistent" that New Approach wouldn’t be running in The Derby, and that was a whole lot nearer to the Derby than now.
Even if you choose not to believe a word Jim Bolger says, they still look different types of horse. New Approach had enough stamina in him to win over 7F on heavy ground the first time he ran. His defeats came either when running at a mile and/or when he encountered top of the ground. In contrast, Dawn Approach started off at 5f before stepping up through 6f to 7f. I reckon it’s reasonably safe to say he would have taken his Dad off his feet if they had met over sprint distances. I don’t think Dawn Approach is another Camelot in waiting and I have a hat ready with a knife and fork and some salt and pepper grinders should he be first past the post at Epsom.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
New Approach’s stamina index figure is 7.5 – pretty low for Derby winning horses. In fact i think the last decade the lowest figure has been for Sir Percy / Mark Of Esteem on 8.6 and that was a bad race.
The dam’s sire does not have one winning progeny beyond 9 furlongs but has a 28% strike rate with sprinters.
I’d say a Derby was unlikely for Dawn Approach.
Since Dawn Approach is from New Approach’s first crop, hardly any (none?) of New Approach’s offspring have had much chance to run over further than 8 furlongs yet. So his Average Winning Distance of 7.5 furlongs seems to me to be a good indication of stamina. His AWD is best judged after his first crop have run as four-year-olds, rather than just one crop of two-year-olds.
From what you said about Phone Trick, it looks like you know where to get good USA bloodstock statistics. Are you able to post a link, especially if the data is free!
New Approach’s stamina index figure is 7.5 – pretty low for Derby winning horses. In fact i think the last decade the lowest figure has been for Sir Percy / Mark Of Esteem on 8.6 and that was a bad race.
The dam’s sire does not have one winning progeny beyond 9 furlongs but has a 28% strike rate with sprinters.
I’d say a Derby was unlikely for Dawn Approach.
Since Dawn Approach is from New Approach’s first crop, hardly any (none?) of New Approach’s offspring have had much chance to run over further than 8 furlongs yet. So his Average Winning Distance of 7.5 furlongs seems to me to be a good indication of stamina. His AWD is best judged after his first crop have run as four-year-olds, rather than just one crop of two-year-olds.
From what you said about Phone Trick, it looks like you know where to get good USA bloodstock statistics. Are you able to post a link, especially if the data is free!
That’s true about his progeny. The RP have only 5 attempts by them over 10-11f so maybe the sample is small. However, it’s still very rare for 5 furlong sprint winners at 2 to show Group 1 winning form over middle distances a year later. Look at Galileo – a very small number of progeny have won over sprint distances of 5f and 6f. And yet his son, New Approach, has nearly equalled that tally already.
You can look at how it runs and say that having won the Dewhurst it should stay farther at three but i think it might pay to take it on for the Derby and races of similar distance.
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