Who is putting punters away?

[KevMc]

Do you use RPRs blues? I find them a nonsense. ORs to me seem much more accurate.

[TheBluesBrother]

stevecaution – In the 3YO table an RPR of 122 is shown to convert to 109 on BHA but the BHA rating for Masar is 121

Steve you have to remember that there is a massive flaw when it comes to the BHA’s WFA scale, if you compare the RP WFA scale for a 2yo in March they receive 26lbs, on the BHA’s scale they receive 47lbs, there is a 21lb difference between the two, the RP is more accurate in my opinion.

KevMcalley – Do you use RPRs blues?

I certainly do, when I am calculating going allowances, the main variable I use is winners official rating, if they haven’t been allocated a rating I will use the RPR awarded for the winner using my conversion chart.

Mike.

[nwalton]

i think we can add Timeform to the list of putting punters away, to still have A. O’Brien as a yard in form seems stretching it to me.

[nwalton]

had some near misses but 1/30 at the moment, got some fancied one’s today lets hope the yard are in full swing and can bag a few winners.

[Gingertipster]

Timeform don’t consider the wins in their trainer form, nwalton; it’s all about “ran to form” with them. However, I think you’re right. tbh I do my own trainer form ratings from looking at their list of runners from each trainer (the list is similar to Racing Post or Sporting Life websites given by clicking on each trainer’s name). In my experience – like most trainer form statistics – Timeform take too many runners/too long a time span in to account. imo Trainers are in form sooner than they say and go out of form sooner too.

When the news first came out about a virus in AOB’s yard both strke rate and ran to form figures were still very healthy. Overall strike rate for 2018 is still only 1 % less than the record breaking 2017. They just don’t have as many good horses this year. So there was a time when Timeform were correct to keep the stable as “in form”; even when AOB came out with the news. However, imo the problem has got worse. 3% recent strike rate compared to a normal 21%; seems too big to ignore for me.

That said, may be Coolmore will have a treble today? There will undoubtedly be a time when he gets over the virus and the stats turn. But that’ll probably be when they’re well backed! Saxon Warrior at this morning’s prices would be very good value if it wasn’t for trainer form (SW and RL are virtually the same horse). If The Lads think he’s in A1 condition there’s no way they’ll allow him to go off 6/1. Opposed vast majority of his horses (backed all three market rivals against the AOB two year old, Broome). Did think one of his horses worth taking a chance on despite the virus – The Pentagon, whose form is at last on an upward curve and I suspect was one of the first to have the virus – hopefully one of the first over it. But he’s also weak in the market having been strong in the last couple of days. Hopefully money will come for him on course.

Value Is Everything

[nwalton]

gt please (not for the first time)I do know how timeform works.Sorry to disagree with them but the yard is not in hot form,whichever way you dress it up.If they have a few decent wins today,that still don’t make timeform correct before today’s events Imo of course

Good luck

[Gingertipster]

gt please (not for the first time)I do know how timeform works.Sorry to disagree with them but the yard is not in hot form,whichever way you dress it up.If they have a few decent wins today,that still don’t make timeform correct before today’s events Imo of course

You might know how Timeform works, nwalton; others might not. I was just pointing out that the 1 in 30 stat means nothing to the way they look at Trainer Form. Which is important because it is possible to rate AOB as in form if the sample is larger than I personally would use:

If looking at AOB’s last 10 runners, Freetown, Mona Lisa’s Smile, Royal Navy Warship all ran well. Ran to form.
Constantinople was running his debut, so can’t be judged on ran to form measurements. So ignore that one and it’s 3 from 9 isn’t great but it’s a small sample.

Of the next 10, Jack Yeats, Delphina and Prepare For Battle were all having their debuts, so no form to say they did not “run to form”.
Sydney Opera House may not have run to market (4/9fav) expectations, but on form ran at least to his debut (only form to date). Ran to form.
Credenza only 8 lengths 7th of 15, but actually improved from her only run (13th of 15). Ran to form.
Fire Fly was 2/1 fav, but ran at least as well as previously in 2nd. Ran to form.
Broadway below form, but was already out of form – just one good run in his last five starts.
Curly below his best.
Hence beaten a nose – ran well. Ran to form.
South Pacific also ran well, beaten only a neck. Ran to form.
So of that 10 horses 5 ran to form, 2 ran poorly and 3 had no form to go on. So ignoring the three debutants you could say 5 out of 7 “ran to form” 71% RTF. Could say 8 from 16, 50% running to form.

Of the next 10 runners:
Western Australia ran at least as well as his only previous start. Ran to form.
Spirit Of Valour beaten around 1 1/2 lengths, probably just as good as he’s done for a few starts. Ran to form.
Sergai Prokofiev disappointed, running very poorly…
But in the same race both The Irish Rover and So Perfect ran better than market/form expectations. Ran to form. Ran to form.
Pink Dogwood having his debut. No form to go on.
Deauville only 4 lengths 6th in a USA Grade 1, but that’s on form as good as he’s done in 4 starts since reappearance. Ran to form.
Athena in USA Grade 1, only 7th of 9, but beaten not much further than three lengths. Timeform rate her as running to form.
Hunting Lion and Lucius Tiberius in another USA Grade 1 both disappointed, disappointed.
So taking debutant out and it’s 6 ran to form from 9, 67%

Other than debutants your 30 losers show 14 ran to form from 25 runners. 56% rtf.

Of the next 10 horses, 3 were debutants and every one of the other 7 ran to form. 7 from 7, 100%.
So including them it’s 21 rtf from 32 runners. 66% rtf.

So if going back far enough 66% compared to an AOB normal 70.6%, isn’t bad at all in their eyes… And 66% is a good figure compared to practically any other stable.

So although you and I might disagree with them, nwalton; trainer form will always be a matter of opinion. Point with the going description in France was considering race times on the day there is absolutely no doubt someone was putting us away. ie It is impossible to do those times on soft ground over advertised distances.

Something else to possibly note is I have heard the best horses are in one yard. Is that right? It could be that yard is more affected than AOB’s other yards.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

As expected, AOB no longer with the Timeform * for trainer in form. Better late than never.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

Posts