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Given that Tom Segal has told us all that weight and draw are neither here nor there in racing, which normally accepted factors do you feel are either pretty worthless or not considered enough?
Mine are
Worthless<br>1. Stats like "jockey hasnt won this race since…blah blah blah". Certain stats are meaningful, but others rubbish<br>2. Speed figures on the jumps. Why?
Underrated<br>1. May seem strange to say, but the "going" to me is absolutely crucial and yet still treated lightly by some<br>2. Horses for course in jumps. God knows why, but its seems to add or take away pounds wither way. The Left/right thing is vital too
Agree?
I think everything is important but to varying degrees. And the varying degrees change all of the time and their importance changes from race to race and meeting to meeting.
What Tom Segal thinks is a lot of silliness, he should know much better, at his age.
Overrated –
Ratings – any type. I say that as a speed figure compiler myself. Ratings are so often the starting point for a punter’s analysis instead of the reference point they should be.
The most overrated rating is the "master" rating. They should be banned from all racing publications except for those read by anoraks who like to make lists.
Underrated –
History. Many punters try to predict what will happen in the future when they don’t understand what happened in the past (usually those armed with a bunch of ratings). This is both on a micro-scale with individual horses and in individual races and on a macro-scale with trends over a number of years.
I’m not just talking about the sometimes overly simplistic 10-year trends type thing but sometimes more subtler trends that take a bit of rooting to find.
Overrated:
1. Jockey form (as opposed to talent)
2. Market trends in respect of a particular race (as in the sort of garbage McCririck takes great pleasure in spouting regarding ‘this being a dreadful race for favourites’).
3. Pricewise.
<br>Underrated:
1. Stable form (particularly at the highest level).
2. Left-hand / right-hand bias in certain horses (eg Sir Rembrandt over jumps or High Chapperal on the flat).
3. Trainers’ habits
Quite a few of my strong beliefs covered on this thread already!
Overrated<br> <br>Collateral form & ratings<br>Speed figures<br>Weight<br>Handicap marks<br>Draw<br>Paddock opinions<br>Jockey ability
Important
Going<br>Suitability of the track/race/time of year<br>Recent form of trainer, not based on strike rate.
I have built a method of working using about 50 variables and the end result is a probability rating based on these based to a 100% book.
It would be a no play race for me due to the small field size and have not complied any odds for theis race. If pushed for a selection it would be Take A Bow and would look to lay Fort Dignity at current odds.
Not a race to rely on Speed Figures for me.
What view do you take on this race?
(Edited by Wallace at 3:49 pm on May 9, 2005)
Over-rated:
Trends.<br>Systems.<br>Market moves (unless interpreted correctly).
Under-rated:
A horse’s basic athletic ability, which form ratings, time ratings and sectional-time ratings all try to get at, albeit often imperfectly. <br>The way races pan out, involving pace, draw, track bias etc.<br>Trainer form (interpreted correctly).
Both over- and under-rated, as their significance varies greatly according to circumstances between negligible and crucial:
The draw.<br>Jockeyship.<br>The going.
Any answer obviously depends on what the person’s perception is of how "rated" (under/over) the factors already are.
I tend to think that The Beatles are one of the most over-rated bands. That’s not because I think they are poor: in fact I think they are good. I just don’t think they are by far the greatest thing that ever happened in music, which a lot of other people seem to think.
If you follow.
Well if three of us have arrived at a similar conclusion about the 6:50 surely Fort Dignity will be a drifter from 2.22 at present t around 2.5 and Take a Bow will shorten from the 5.0. I prefer to trade than bet!
The market has moved! I got into Take A Bow at 5.1 and out at 4.1 for a profit. Great idea this exchange business :)
Quote: from Wallace on 2:47 pm on May 9, 2005[br]I have built a method of working using about 50 variables and the end result is a probability rating based on these based to a 100% book.<br>
<br>Really, 50? Name them…
50 variables sounds unworkable but I’d be delighted to hear more Wallace. How do you manage to compile the necessary data from 50 variables for each race in a reasonable time-frame?
I do believe you need to look at as much as possible – leave no stone unturned if you like. But you need to do so in a practical way, identifying the key characteritics which are most relevant and these can change depending on the venue, type of horse, type of race, etc. The important thing, whatever factors you use, is to translate the results into your analysis into an accurate assessment of the true price a horse should be at.
I think that is the most under-rated factor. Identifying the correct price for the horse. Winning at punting is nothing to do with picking winners. If you’re identifying the true price and are patient enough to wait until, for whatever reason, the market gets it wrong, then the winners will come as a matter of course and, provided you are any good at identifying those true prices, so will the profit.
<br>Of those mentioned previously on the thread I like tdk’s.
Cormack15 & nore, I have built a database along with a programmer over the last couple of years. Can’t go into the finer points of my method. If you can accept Peter May has developed a speed figure method without using standard times then similar kind of thinking lead me to throwing old chestnuts away and start from scratch. A few variables we do not use; weight, official handicap marks and penalties.
A very well know ratings service is used by lots of people to trade on the exchanges from 9:30 am every morning. This service uses over 200 variables in their model and their output is good. I am more interested in finding big market movers than finding winners. Our outline tissue is run within minutes of the declarations for the next days racing being downloaded which gives us a good edge providing we can get bets matched early. The drop in early liquidity on Betfair over recent months is a problem.<br>
2. Horses for course in jumps. God knows why, but its seems to add or take away pounds wither way. The Left/right thing is vital too
Agreed, course specialists are important over jumps particularly at unusual tracks such as Fontwell chase course. IMO more important over jumps because not only is the horse proven to handle the course configuration/nature (as on the Flat) but also the sighting/character of the fences. Clive Holt emphasised the importance of CD form in his little red book many years ago. Allied to lto winner it remains a very powerful filter when assessing a horse’s chance.
Over-rated:
Stuff like ‘favs/fillies have a good/bad record in this race’. Backfitted stats like these tell you eff all about the relative chances of todays contenders. Each race on it’s own merits.
Weight: Top-weight is, in general, a positive factor not a negative.
Under-rated:
Sheepskin cheekpieces
The psychological attributes of the succesful punter
Staking
Bloody hell…mostly on the same wavelength :o
Some good posts..
So why are the papers and Tv so crap? Recent example in racing post "But K Fallon has never ridden a winner for this stable". He had had all of 3 rides for them in previous 5 years
How can idiots be allowed to write such stuff?
I also think Paddock (especially on flat and essential for 2 year olds) is a big factor. Its not always specific but a good look can certainly give an edge when actually at the races
Dont agree with the Beatles Prufrock! Im a soul/jazz/classical so a bit of an outsider to RnR, but they really were touched with genius
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