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That’s sincerely appreciated GH and it’s one of the reasons I really like this forum because members can have misunderstandings, differences, arguments etc., but at the end of the day everyone is civilised enough to offer olive branches and kiss and make up.
Cheers
Ken- Total Posts 17716
Sometimes they are, Ken, sometimes.
Difficult to draw any positives from Denman’s run. For one who is normally such a strong and resolute galloper his emptying out in the straight was particularly alarming; not what you’d expect of a Denman ‘in need of the run’, more a Denman who isn’t himself at all.
TV pictures tell lies but IMO neither his appearance (musculature) nor his body-language before and during the race impressed at all.
As such I would side with those who believe he won’t – or shouldn’t – run again this season, though I wouldn’t go so far as TDK’s "finished" just yet.
As for Madison du Berlais, well I’m prepared to believe he’s improved some more on what is a generally progressive profile but an RPR of 176 seems plainly absurd, as he had the run of the race and saw off a poorly Denman, a jonjoed Albertas Run, a 130s handicapper in Niche Market, an injured Joe Lively, and a has-been in Trabolgan.
163 tops MDB: admirable though you are, the Hennessy was your Gold Cup.
I am just wondering what those who seem to be writing him off or advising he should be left in his box
would be saying had the Pipe horse not run.
At a guess his 25 lengths victory over Albertas Run would have them doing handstands and saying he was a certainty for a repeat.
As Alberta’s Run deplores soft ground in affect he would have beaten nothing but that would have gone over the top of most people’s heads and it would be "Denman is back"
As we all know there are two ways to get a horse fit. One is to give him lots of strong work at home the second is to bring him along slowly and give him a run or two to bring him to his peak.
330 days off under constant supervision and advice by vets has Nicholls chosen the latter method? Would seem the sensible way to go especially if that is what the medical advice was.
If we wrote of every horse who had the minor heart problem he had or every horse who didn’t run to form we would be as well shutting up shop and going home.
It is far from unusual for horses to make complete fools of us all. One or two bad runs in a good horss career is par for the course especially afer a set back.
As an example the jonjoed (to use your very odd phrase) Exotic Dancer finished 20 odd lengths behind Neptune Collonges in last years Gold Cup. We all know what happened next.
Denman finished? Laughable in my opinion,
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Not more ‘if horse x was taken out of the race, horse y would have won easily’ nonsense. The fact is the Pipe horse did run and made Denman look distinctly ordinary in the process. Far more laughable than suggesting that the runner-up is past his best is the assumption that Saturday’s finishing distances were in any way representative of the horses’ relative abilities.
The folk that make me laugh are the one’s who (before the race) said odds-on was buying money on Denman, and after the race say he should be retired.
They must be dissapointed, as there’s a bit of a perceptive contradiction in thinking a horse is a certainty one minute, and then wanting it to be retired because it didn’t "meet your expectations" after the event.
Fanny’s.
Not for me. I thought Harry Findlay sounded very negative prior to the race and I very much feared the worst after that… The vibe from him and PN both before and after the race seemed to be that the problems he had suffered in the autumn had been very serious and more serious than the general public had been led to believe. I got the impression they were pleased just to get him back to the track at all.
They can carry on running the beast and I’m sure he will run with credit, but he looked a shell of the horse that destroyed the Hennessy and Gold Cup fields last year and I can’t see a return to those peaks.
I am just wondering what those who seem to be writing him off or advising he should be left in his box
would be saying had the Pipe horse not run.
At a guess his 25 lengths victory over Albertas Run would have them doing handstands and saying he was a certainty for a repeat.
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As Equitrack points out, a race less amenable to a ‘pounds-per-length’ interpretation would be hard to find with only the winner running to – or slightly above – form
I was at pains to point out that what I found alarming about Denman’s run was his tiring in the straight, something wholly un-Denmanesque. That he was 20+ lengths in front of a quartet of less than reliable ‘yardsticks’ at the time means little IMO.
Like many I’m an admirer of Denman’s so will be smiling through that egg on my face should he come on for Saturday’s run to the tune of two stone come Cheltenham.
‘Jonjoed’ is a term coined by someone on here to be used by those of us who believe Mr O’Neill is possibly not amongst the top flight of trainers
Welcome Aristo, good posts
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Marb
I fail to see any contradiction in believing a horse to be 20lb superior to his opposition, and being disappointed when he is beaten 23l by a horse rated 23lb his inferior.
There is this silly therory being banded about that if you took Madison out of Saturday’s race, Denman would have a) won by 25l and everybody would have been pleased. However it was Madison that dictated the race and it was his pressing of the pace that broke those behind, maybe Denman would have done that anyway, but its unlikely and all we’d have had was a very slow race and a much tighter looking field. The fact is that all you can take from it is that Denman got back to the track and completed his race. The next week or two will tell us what kind of shape he’s in and how’s he’s recovered as it took a while for the last problem to surface.
- Total Posts 17716
To win a Gold Cup is something special and takes out so much from the horse, I know people saying Denman needed the run but to improve from that performance and win a Gold Cup I think some people are living in dream world. The horse was being hyped up like nothing before and Nicholls kept saying the heart wasn’t a problem and he has had plenty of training especially with the calibure of horse in the yard and to see that performance well it was very sad and Nicholls was speechless in shock afterwards, rightly so.
From PA:
DENMAN MISSES NATIONAL DATE
Denman has been scratched from the John Smith’s Grand National following his comeback defeat at Kempton on Saturday.
Trainer Paul Nicholls officially took last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup hero out of the Aintree marathon this morning.
Weights for the race, for which the nine-year-old was ante-post favourite at around 10-1, will be unveiled tomorrow.Only a matter of time before Denman is also scratched from this year’s Gold Cup.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
- Total Posts 17716
Only a matter of time before Denman is also scratched from this year’s Gold Cup.
I totally agree, the signs are not very positive. The horse gave everything last year I think he just wants an easy life now, kick back relax and to be pamperd.
i find it very difficult to accept this theory if mdb had not been in the race denman would have been thought to be back to something like his best,you cant possibly know what would have happened,you have to go on what you see and make a judgement,and p nicholls was imo disappointed he had denman fit enough to win and he did not whether he will come and win at cheltenham if he runs,who knows but on the evidence of what i saw i will not be backing him.
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