- This topic has 20 replies, 6 voices, and was last updated 8 months, 2 weeks ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Interesting stuff, ep. 1 to 5 sounds better than most staking plans.
But if I’ve got you right then – for me – there doesn’t seem much consideration made for the amount of risk involved. Potentially comparatively large bets on those with comparatively little chance of winning. Could lose a massive part (if not all) of the bank when a long losing run strikes?Maybe I have it wrong.
Could you give more examples please?
Value Is EverythingLet’s say there’s a 16-1 shot you think is a 5 point bet as you make it a 5-2 chance. To win those 5 points you’d only need to bet about 0.3 points which with a point set at 2% of bankroll would be 0.6% of you bank (£3 or £3.25 out of £500 with a point set at £10 as I recommend rounding to the nearest .05% to keep things simple and make sure you don’t miss a price while working out an exact stake).
As I said; the bigger priced horses only require small stakes when your approach is to bet to win points rather than staking in them directly. As above, with a £500 bank I’d have 25p as a min stake on the real long shots and the max on any horse would be £50 (would be a max confidence bet on a horse evens or shorter, such that at evens I’d think the horse should be about 1/4 on). Those would be the only two times that the stake would take precedent over betting to win x number of points.
Essentially it’s very similar to what you proposed, just much simpler. How much value you think there is sets the amount you bet to win, you round the stake to the nearest .05% (a 2k bankroll would round to the nearest pound) and you have a min and max for simplicity on the low end and bankroll management on the high end.
Ah yes, sorry I got a bit confused. Think I see now ep. What you describe as a “5 point bet” isn’t 5 points staked but a bet to win 5 points. That’s fair enough.
Value Is EverythingFor my “fun” bets I use Target Betting where I seek a profit in a series of bets once I strike a winner at the required odds or two consecutive winners at shorter odds.As I live in AUstralia I will use $ as my guide to this.
I suggest the bettor seeks to win $0.10c per race based on a bank of $200 thus seeking to win a ratio of 1:2000 as 2000 times $0.10 is $200. This seems to nearly bettors as chicken feed but the profits can mount. Even just a miserable $20 profit over time X is +10% of the original betting bank. A bettor with a betting bank of $2000 can simply work out the bets by using $0.10 as the target and multiply by 10.My selections are horses at about 7/4 for the win or place. For those at 1/1 or less I use the divisor 6/4 and at 10/9 plus I use 2. These days I just select in Melbourne, Victoria (Flem Sand Caul Moon) in most Saturday races and interstate only in selected races usually in small field handicaps or wfa or set weights type of races.
A good form selector who realises what class, racemaps, distance and track conditions at each level of contest means should not be courting too many long runs of outs especially if solid place bets are sought against suspect favourites.
As I have become older I realize with bigger bets betting to win $X is the way to go. I don’t lose too much sleep worrying about odds unless the odds are really, really short (aound $1.7 is ok most times (what’s that 5/7).
Not sure if anyone is interested in this so will see what replies I get before adding more comments.Good betting to you all.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.