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What is most likely to get Enable beat?

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  • #1463461
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8785

    Bad draw?
    Poor ride?
    Bad luck in running?
    A better opponent?

    What do you think might be her undoing, or maybe you think she is bombproof to all the above?

    #1463466
    potato
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 832

    * 9-2 on her back and the weight of history on her shoulders. No horse won it 3 times.

    * No matter her form coming into the race every horses time will come, its possible that this will be one trip to the well too many.

    * Obviously a bad draw would be a negative though it can be overcome.

    * Obviously a bad ride would do it. Frankie is feeling the weight of history on his shoulders and is emotiomal. Enable will pick up on the nervousness of Frankie and he will be nervous. It could make her nervous, it could make her underperform.

    * As her career is coming to an end and her fire is flickering a top class 3yo colt is emmerging and improving and ready to peak in the race. His name is Japan. Its a changing of the guards.

    * Her best arc win came as a 3yo but that was at a different track.
    Her only previous run in a Longchamp arc she was considered to be a very lucky girl that the sea of stars filly had 20 lengths to make up at the straight and only just failed. One year on is her luck about to run out?

    *TREVE was also a dual arc winner and apparently unbeatable sent off at evens for her 3rd arc on her 13th start, she was unplaced.
    Enable is a dual arc winner who will be sent off around evens for her 3rd arc on her 13th turf start (15th race). The difference between Treve and Enable is Treve was a Longchamp specialist having won 5 times at the track. Enable of course was a lucky winner only previous longchamp start.

    * Her stable girl, trainer, all people within the stable will be nervous as signficiant racing history is so close for enable. Horses pick up on human emotions and I think the nervous energy around her in the build up is huge. No doubt normally her crew are always quietly very confident in her approaching races and she justifies that confidence on the track but she will pick up that something is different this time and she may run differently because of it.

    Can Enable win and make history? Yes she can, history is always open to be created.

    Will she definitely win? Absolutely not and her price is outrageously bad.

    #1463505
    HimselfHimself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3775

    I think Enable is the best middle distance filly since the war .

    Tough , durable and a will to win like no other racehorse.

    Yes , the weight of history is against her , and with a very good French Derby winner and Aidan O’Brien’s improving colt , Japan , in opposition , she will have to be at her best to win .

    That said , John Gosden is bullish about the outcome , saying Enable has never been better , and is stronger than ever .

    Frankie Dettori is riding better than ever , and he rides Longchamps better than any other jockey . He just gets on so well with Enable and will have her in a perfect position to strike for home when the chips are down .

    Enable will prove too good for the rest . I expect her to win her third Arc and go down in history as the greatest filly of all time .

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #1463540
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    What is most likely to get Enable beat?

    Luck in running:
    Enable has the best form and has the most consistent form in the race too. Consistent no matter where she runs! Enable is the most likely in the race to run to form. However, all the other riders will be particularly trying to pin the odds-on favourite in – for luck in running to come in to play.

    Poor Ride:
    Any horse can receive a poor ride, but Frankie is the best/most consistent big race jockey in the World – is the least likely to get a poor ride. However, if luck in running does come in to it then people will blame Frankie whether it is his fault or not.

    (There is another possibility) Not at her current best:
    Enable has the best form and has the most consistent form in the race too. The least likely in the field to be below her current best. Her first Arc is a bit of a standout on form, but the quality of any of her runs this season should be good enough to win anyway unless something improves by a fair degree… And there’s also a possibility she’s capable of that standout performance and just hasn’t needed to produce it in any race since.

    Doubt there’s enough horses in the field for a bad draw to come in to it. Or if it does, highly unlikely to be enough to stop her.

    Better opponent:
    Allowing for her sex allowance Enable’s current form is not massively in front of this field, but her wonderful consistency means others will – in all probability – need to improve to win.

    (What Matters) – Value:
    Although Walgeist may look value in that he could well run well/place again, is highly unlikely to win/beat the great mare. What’s needed to beat Enable is an improver. To my mind the market has it right, Japan and Sottsass the most likely improvers and Ghaiyyath the other with a chance of doing so. That said, the latter’s chance will depend heavily on getting an easy lead. Will there be pacemakers and/or other prominent runners against him? I’d only consider backing him in-running. imo it is Japan and Sottsass that could yet improve to be big dangers. Japan looked a 12f+ horse prior to York and no surprise if he’s better back at this trip. The International victory wasn’t up to Enable’s class but could yet improve in to that class. Sottsass was given a typically french-style (miss the Summer) preparation and the trainer is in particularly good form right now. Isn’t yet top top class and if not improving may not beat even Waldgeist home. However he’s still unexposed and could improve a fair amount… Much more chance of beating Enable than Waldgeist does. If Magical runs I’ll probably back her each way, but that seems very doubtful.

    value is everything
    #1463542
    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2268

    TREVE was also a dual arc winner and apparently unbeatable sent off at evens for her 3rd arc on her 13th start, she was unplaced.
    Enable is a dual arc winner who will be sent off around evens for her 3rd arc on her 13th turf start (15th race). The difference between Treve and Enable is Treve was a Longchamp specialist having won 5 times at the track. Enable of course was a lucky winner only previous longchamp start.

    “Unbeatable sent off at Evens” – She was as much likely to lose than win according to her price.

    Treve’s form between her first and third Arc – 2341111 including been beaten three times at odds on, twice at her “specialist” track Longchamp.
    Enable’s form between first and third Arc – 111111.

    That said I think it unlilely that Enable will be beat because of the first 3 options due to the man on board.

    So then it comes down to being beaten by a better horse, which is always possible. This will most probably be 2nd favourite Japan who seems to have improved non-stop although there are still question marks over his last win over a seemingly below par Crystal Ocean and his other opponents. He is also trained by the master AOB who definitely knows how to win an Arc, not that John Gosden doesn’t.

    #1463642
    Istabraq
    Participant
    • Total Posts 219

    What reasons did you doubt that magical would run ginger?

    #1463665
    SteeplechasingSteeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5769

    Heavy ground would be the only potential danger, imo, and she’d probably still win even on that. Going currently soft with just light rain forecast Saturday and Sunday.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1463692
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    I saw 25/1 available Magical on the exchanges, Istabraq; that seemed too big for a horse likely to run – but obviously they’ve reached a decision to run. The rain would worry me a little if very soft. Magical seems to act well on very soft and also stays 12f. But will she stay 12f on very soft ground? :unsure: Although tbh her price is probably going to be worth finding out.

    Although Magical ran well on both Arc day and Champions Day last year (and Breeders Cup). In my experience horses having their first of those runs on very soft are far less likely to recover in time to be effective on the second target… And I could do with the TRF Ten To Follow points.

    This year’s event might be more a specialist 12f performer’s race which may count against Sottsass whose asset seems speed… Although Japan won the International at 10f I’d be surprised if he wasn’t at his best at 12f – would imo stay further still if asked… However, will he actually act on very soft? :unsure: Ghaiyyath is yet to prove himself on soft ground too, but given a very roundish action it would be surprising if not acting on it. However, would he stay the trip in a truly run race on the surface? :unsure:

    Soft ground would make it more of a lottery in as much as judgement of pace is even more important. Horses going too fast too soon become even more tired (losing even more lengths) than they would on firmer ground. On the other hand horses too far back on a very soft surface find it even more difficult to quicken/make up ground… Which all makes Frankie’s job harder. However, as far as I remember Enable is the only market principle with proven 12f form on very soft ground.

    value is everything
    #1463701
    He Didnt Like Ground
    Participant
    • Total Posts 384

    Sometimes you can over analise races trying to get horses beat , she has one stat against her , winning a third 1 , simplifying it she,s the best horse in it , not badly drawn , ill be very surprised is she,s beat , I might have a e.w play but purely for a bit of fun and value

    #1463779
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2570

    Cant lose, too good, frankie will keep her out wide so she cant get boxed in, perfect draw with the likelyhood of buick rattling ghaiyaath out quickly, she should be 2/5 Greatest horse to grace the turf, ever. Wouldnt be surprised if she put up a career best effort since frankie wont be so cautious to ask her for everything this time

    Japan- no chance (place lay)
    Sotsass – no chance (place lay)
    Ghaiyaath – no chance (place lay)

    Waldgeist and magical e/w are as good a bet as the fav

    Most surreal result of the year would be if none of the 3 placed (enable/waldgeist/magical)

    Its actually a red hot arc in terms of ratings, but it wont matter in the end.

    #1463855
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1840

    Nothing will I don’t think.

    Gosden horses running like clockwork. Had the 1-2 in the fillies race today. Frankie on the winner as well.

    Running down the centre of the track getting strung out no traffic issues you will need to stay and she does.

    #1463860
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Doubt they’ll be running down the centre tomorrow, Mike. Fresh ground has been kept around the inner.

    value is everything
    #1465517
    The Tatling Cheekily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 238

    Even if Enable had won, she isn’t even the best Distaff of the current millennium in my eyes. Zarkava won seven out of seven races, including 6 Stakes races, 5 Group 1’s, 2 Classics & an Arc – and nothing got within 2 lengths of her.

    The crushing dismissals of fellow all-time-great Goldikova seal the deal for me.

    #1465522
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Zarkava had an exceptional rating for a three year old filly. She did not have the opportunity to progress at four.

    Zarkava may or may not have been as good as Enable, but the meeting of Zark’ and Gold’ can not be used as something to “seal the deal”. Both Zarkava and Goldikova improved enormously after their meetings in the French Guineas and Oaks, so is in no way a basis of their abilities.

    Zarkava beat Gagnoa 3 lengths with Goldikova (who didn’t stay 10f) in the Diane 1 1/2 further back in 3rd and just short neck back to Proviso in 4th. But Zarkava subsequently improved significantly throughout 2008, ending up many more than 3 lengths superior to Gagnoa by the end of the year. If judging horses by what happened in that race then, is Gagnoa really only 3 lengths superior to Zarkava? Is Gagnoa a 1 1/2 lengths superior filly to Goldikova? Is Goldikova only a short neck superior to Proviso?

    Even if only judging the pair by what happened at the mile in the French Guineas:
    At the time of the French Guineas Goldikova had only run in minor company, none at even listed class let alone Group 1. Even Frankel took time to reach his exceptional level of form. Goldikova doing well to improve the amount she did between her trial and Pouliches to get within 2 lengths of Zarkava who’d already won at Group 1 level. Both Zarkava and Goldikova progressed a good deal more afterwards (I’m talking 10+ lbs). So judging how good both horses were by what happened in May of their three year old career is questionable to say the least.

    value is everything
    #1465554
    The Tatling Cheekily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 238

    Actually mate it can be used, as my opinion is my own and yours or anyone elses ratings are just that – their opinion.

    3yo’s are frequently under-rated early in the season, in my opinion, and the better ones ratings increase whether or not performances improve on occasion.

    I would say you can’t therefore hang your hat on that to form an opinion, but i’m not so arrogant as all that.

    Another opinion i’ll not shake off – Zarkava would go past Crystal Ocean doing handstands.

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