The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Were you on?

Home Forums Horse Racing Were you on?

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 50 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1559891
    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2473

    .

    #1559918
    Marlingford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 410

    Thanks Ian. I’ve enjoyed interacting with you too since I started posting more regularly on here earlier this year. I think most of our initial interactions involved disagreeing, but as time has gone on I’ve noticed we actually agree on a fair amount. I will never turn the sound down on the TV though! :-)

    #1559920
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1799

    And I’ll never turn it up!

    #1559921
    Marlingford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 410

    Haha, glad to hear it!

    #1559952
    The Tatling Cheekily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1953

    I love Ian Davies, the man. I also love his posts under his other username, Marlingford. The more the merrier.

    They are much better than that dastardly bounder Tank.

    #1559954
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1799

    Quality from TTC as usual.

    But don’t forget my third alleged alter ego – “Cormack15” – yes, I actually acquired TRF many years ago.

    It’s a bit like tuning into Dallas and finding Pam dreamed the entire last series, isn’t it!

    Conspiracy theorists will believe anything and everything – except what’s under their own noses.

    That’s dastardly bounders for you.

    #1559962
    Marlingford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 410

    I’ve also noticed if you rearrange the letters of “The Tatling Cheekily”, add a few others, and remove a few, you get “Ian Davies in Disguise”. Surely this is significant?!

    #1559966
    IanDavies
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1799

    Damn my conceit and fragile ego!

    I just had to leave a clue – little knowing that Sherlock Marlingford would solve my egocentric riddle!

    And I’d have got away with it too, if it hadn’t been for you meddling kids!

    #1560160
    Seasider
    Participant
    • Total Posts 585

    This link was supplied by Green yesterday:

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/punting-hell-beaten-1-20-shot-caps-half-hour-of-misery-for-favourite-backers/324457

    Taking an unnuanced view, with ten 1/20 losers over the past 166 years one would have required 4,000 winners at the same price over the same time period just to break even.

    One would also have to be unfeasibly old.

    Anyway, that’s an average of twenty-four 1/20 winners per annum. I’m almost certain, but in reality guessing, that the average number of 1/20 winners per annum is far fewer than that. Therefore, in the long term, the inevitability of losses is almost inescapable.

    Hopefully these primitive calculations help to confirm something we all knew anyway.

    IMO there is a mindset held by a minority of punters that if a horse is 1/20 it will win simply because it is 1/20.

    #1560168
    Marlingford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 410

    Sorry Green and Seasider – having named Tree Of Liberty correctly the first time I mentioned him, I then mistakenly called him Tree Of Life later on, which led to the continued use of the incorrect name.

    Thanks for the further interesting replies. I’d agree that there will be more of a tendency to apply false logic with extreme and unfamiliar prices.

    #1560234
    Salut A Toi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 107

    Anyway, that’s an average of twenty-four 1/20 winners per annum. I’m almost certain, but in reality guessing, that the average number of 1/20 winners per annum is far fewer than that. Therefore, in the long term, the inevitability of losses is almost inescapable.

    Perhaps we should all start laying them in that case :good:

    #1560323
    Marlingford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 410

    Based on my internet searches and the thread above, I’ve summarised my understanding of the record shortest prices for the UK. This does not include horses whose prices were so short that no SP was returned back in the days of betting tax.

    Thanks to everyone who has provided information. I’m pretty sure not all of these will be the actual records, so further information and corrections are both welcome.

    SHORTEST-PRICED WINNERS
    Flat – 25/05/1999 Victory Spin (1/66), 28/01/2014 Stand Guard (1/80 or 1/66 depending on source)
    Hurdles – 12/05/2017 Mohaayed (1/33)
    Chase – 08/10/2018 Jenkins (1/25)

    SHORTEST-PRICED LOSERS
    Flat – 23/09/1948 Royal Forest (1/25)
    Hurdles – 15/12/1988 Arum Lily (1/14), 17/02/1993 Suluk (1/14), 18/02/2010 Zaynar (1/14)
    Chase – 06/12/1909 Jerry M (1/20), 22/03/2018 Tree Of Liberty (1/20)

    #1561163
    Seasider
    Participant
    • Total Posts 585

    Saith Marlingford:

    I’m pretty sure not all of these will be the actual records, so further information and corrections are both welcome.

    Ormonde was victorious in the 1886 Champion Stakes at 1/100.

    #1561249
    Marlingford
    Participant
    • Total Posts 410

    Thanks Seasider :-)

    Also a mention for Eglantine Du Seuil who got beaten at 1/12 in a novice chase as recently as last week.

    #1561250
    Father_Jack
    Participant
    • Total Posts 56

    Also a mention for Eglantine Du Seuil who got beaten at 1/12 in a novice chase as recently as last week.

    Who was 1/33 the evening before when the prices came up !!!

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 50 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.