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Big move for Mon Mome today- 12/1 best now- even Bulwark will be backing him now!
Haven’t actually really looked at this race heavily yet and not sure just how much money there is in the market, may have a ganders later. Did think about Neuphar Collonges a while back but then I looked at his price and remembered about Carruthers running him into the ground him on heavy ground last year over a shorter trip.
I wouldn’t be surprised, Bulwark, if Carruthers truns out to be as brilliant as he was expected to be. I believe they’ve always seen him in the long term as a chaser. But that dam being a half-sister to Destriero is something, isn’t it?
I’ve had a bob on Abbeybraney. Though I’d picked him for the race today, I was too late to get better than 12s in the Welsh Grand National. I’ve had a long bad run, but things may be beginning to pick up. Ever hopeful.
I was a bit gutted to see Mon Mome amongst the decs for Cheltenham today, though it’s hard to blame connections as it’s evens Chepstow to be on on past form. Today’s hard race isn’t ideal two weeks before the Welsh and I’ve taken a bit out of him at 10-1 on BF- does anyone know if it’s a fixed 7lbs he gets or what?
Analysing the Welsh National previously I remember that the ideal was for a horse to have about 3 weeks off beforehand- I can’t remember a horse winning after a run as close as 2 weeks.He gets 4lb for today Carvs. He ran on the 9th the year he finished second and showed his form numerous times during that season turned out relatively quickly. From a handicapping point of view he’s enhanced his claims imo, he’ll be 6 or 7 lb well in officially on the day I think. He’s now into the price he should have been when we put him up.
Didn’t Venetia do something similar with the ill fated Nil Desperandum who was my bet for the Grand National that year, when she ran him in the Midlands National?
Venetia did nothing wrong in her handling of Nil Desperandum. Racehorses are no use stuck in their box. Todays race was worth 57k to the winner and the Midlands National is a valuable race too in it’s own right, that Nil Desperandum suffered a fatal injury was nothing more than bad luck.
I haven’t got anything to say, I’m just bringing this to the top of the pile in case someone accidentally starts a new thread for the Welsh National.
I must say though, the only horse that I’m aware of that has come in in price since shortly after the entries were announced is Mon Mome. (Perhaps Abbeybraney as well.)
There doesn’t seem to be much point in getting involved early on with Ante-Post.
Edit: And I’ve just seen that Abbeybraney is out as well. No 11 or 12yos and only 3 10yos. The horses in the handicap do seem to be a smart bunch. I’d be surprised if anything won from more than a couple of pounds out of the handicap. Looking forward to watching a Vintage renewal.
Does anyone know which horses are likely to run? had a small ew on Darkness just in case he runs…..
Love this race and being a loyal taff I think the Welsh trainers stand a good chance. I have backed:
KINGS EURO 16/1 ew
HIGH CHIMES 16/1 ew ( Now 8/1)Does anyone know which horses are likely to run? had a small ew on Darkness just in case he runs…..
Well, the first part is a success – at least you’re getting a run for your money. ( I think I’ve put £2 on him as well.)
Well done David and Carv, Mon Mome 20/1 eh. I still make him a good bet at 6/1 or 11/2. I thought about backing him at the same time as you but wondered if he’d run. Oh silly me!
Do like Halcon Genalardais again. he only gets his conditions here.
Have saved on some others.
Two I am keeping an eye on for Aintree are Kings Euro and Notre Pere. Ideal types.
Mark
Value Is EverythingI hope Notre Pere goes for this race, would really suit him, normally run on soft ground, he would also get 17lbs from Halcon Genelardais.
Well spotted that man!
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