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I am trying to rate horses by time on turf races/flat
Should I take weight for age allowance into account in 3 year old handicaps and/or 3 year old and older handicaps.
or has the handicapper already done this with the horses handicap rating?The WFA scale is available via the BHA;
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/insid … A_Flat.pdf
If you use the Sporting Life racecards they put the current handicap mark in the OR column. The 9.20 at Hamilton shows the difference between the 3yo and older horses.
The original weight-for-age scale designed by Admiral Rous and used by the BHA is obsolete and should be ripped up.
20 years ago the Racing Post came up with their own WFA scale, compare the two for yourself to see the difference
The main problem with the BHA’s WFA table is that it is too generous to the 2yo olds in the earlier part of the year.
For example the BHA scale states a 2yo in March receives an allowance of
41lbs
, the Racing Post states that 2yo’s should receive only
26lbs
so that is a difference of
15lbs
.
Raceform
has the more accurate scale:
Example May/Jun 2yo’s-10lbs
and 3yo’s
-3lbs
.
Month
***
2yo
**
3yo
Jan/Feb** n/a** -6
Mar/Apr** -11** -5
May/Jun** -10** -3
Jul/Aug** -3** -9
Sep/Oct** -8** -2
Nov/Dec** -7** -1Races contested by fillies only -3
So a filly running in the Oaks in June rated
117
you would end up with (117-4-3 =
110
).
Speaking to Dave Edwards "Top Speed" on the phone recently, he stated that he hates having to use the WFA scale when rating 2yo’s because the ratings come out too high, and the bosses at the Racing Post insist that he still uses WFA.
Why use WFA when speed rating 2yo’s, apart from 3 races a year they only run against their own age group.
That is why my 2yo ratings are more accurate than Top Speed’s, they are not corrupted by the WFA scale.
To view my ratings (see below)
While the WFA scale may not be "accurate" if you read the OP you may appreciate that knowing the scale that the official handicappers employ is relevant to the question.
Thank you all for taking the time to advise me
Although I still don’t have a clear answer to my question
Which put another way was if a 3 year old is rated at 70 and a 4 year old is rated at 70 by the BHA has the BHA handicapper already incorporated Weight for age, so if they race against each other they would run off of level weights or does weight for age adjustment need to be applied to the ratings before they race?
I do use all race times on a particular card including 2 year olds, so I need to apply the right weight for age allowance, the 2 year old times have been throwing my calculations out by some way so blues brother info explains a lot,(slightly wrong answer probably due to the way I asked question but much more valuable)
Do you think if I averaged the raceform WFA WITH Racing post WFA I would have a fair average?
Lastly if you are still reading, if I join raceform interactive, will I be able access their weight for age scale and their race standard times?In the 9.20 at Hamilton there are 2 3yos. Seattle Sounder running off 60 (9-3) and King of Paradise from 59 (9-2). The top weight Social Rhythm is also running from a mark of 59 but carries 9-13. Referring to the WFA scale the BHA uses shows that the allowance 3yo receive from their elders over 1m in the 1st half of June is 11lbs.
The Raceform WFA scale is in the booklet that comes with the DVD.
Using the Query tool you can access the "Median Times", Racing Post Ratings/Raceform Ratings and Dave Bellingham’s speed figures and a host of other features.When a 3yo runs against a 4yo in a handicap they receive an allowance i.e. the WFA is already built into the race.
The only time you would add weight and use any WFA scale is when you produce your own ratings and you would add the WFA to the speed rating.I will give you an example why the BHA WFA is so far out and on the 31st May I gave Richard Hannon’s 2yo Sir Prancealot a speed figure of
78
.
So using the BHA WFA adjustment I would add 36lbs to the ratings:
78+36lbs=114
which on the par table would make the horse a group 2 performer, in my dreams!
BHA class pars:
G1-120
G2-113
G3-109
LST-104
C2-92
C3-87
C4-81
C5-76
C6-68
C7-63So If I used Raceform’s scale I would get 78+10lbs=
88
, making the horse a C3/C2 performer, I will go along with this.
Can you see what I an trying to get over, as one wag on this board quoted to me once, "We have been using The BHA WFA scale for over 100 years why change now".
Ratings are inclusive of wfa.
They are not are they? Not according the the 920 Hamilton previously referred to. So surely rating are ‘exclusive’ of wfa?
I think Raceforms is too low Blues Brothers. Which distance are they for as well?
I did a fair bit of study purely trying to find what poundage regarding speed figures is truly representative for each month. These are my estimations which i’ve found work out pretty well over the course of a season.
These are
per mile
figures and are in seconds that I feel 2yo’s are shy of maturity based purely on the clock.
Mar 2.30
April 2.10
May 1.90
June 1.70
July 1.50
August 1.30
September 1.10
October 0.90
November 0.80
December 0.70I’ve done a fair bit of time comparisons to get these figures and I think they are pretty fair.
I don’t add WFA to my figures but the downside to that is that each month your figures get higher and a 2yo that records an 80 in May doesn’t look so special by July. If that 80 rated 2yo does improve by the expected poundage, that an average 2yo could be expected to, then he may actually be an 8/10lb better horse by July. This would mean you are underestimating the horse purely due to not adding WFA.
Swings & Roundabouts.
The trouble with watching the clock is the only thing that definitely happens is that you get older.
Thank you all very much for your advice
You all seem to take your horse racing as seriously as I do, it’s good to know others are as passionate
I am a loser overall, I hope someone on this forum makes it pay@ Slowhand
The speed figures for 2yo’s are supposed to get higher as the year progresses as they continue to mature, and it is usually aroung July you see the class backwards types start to appear.
My top 2yo at this moment is
Penny’s Pinic
with a rating of
85
and I expect by the end of the year to see a 2yo rated in the
95+
bracket.
The Raceform scale covers all distances, and I use it to work out the going allowances, I add the WFA adjustment to 2yo and 3yo races to bring all the age groups into line, I find this helps.
Just an update on the Raceform wfa allowances.
Month*** 2yo** 3yo
Jan/Feb** n/a** -6
Mar/Apr** -11** -5
May/Jun** -10** -3
Jul/Aug** -9** -3
Sep/Oct** -8** -2
Nov/Dec** -7** -1Races contested by fillies only -3
Those aren’t lbs Blues Brothers, they are
lengths
, lengths measured as in 0.2 seconds. So Raceform aren’t a deal different to Topspeeds. For example Raceform’s allowance in Mar/Apr for 2yo’s is 11 lengths, or 2.2 seconds.
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