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Bit premature I know but from past experience, this time next week I will be totting up my losses as opposed to my profits.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Cards on the table, its normally a horror week for me. Don’t tend to back the shorties of which plenty will win, enjoy the challenge of the handicaps but they are bloody hard too. I remember one Cheltenham, think it was Al Boum Photo’s first gold cup year and he was my only winner all week, bloody satisfying picking out one hardly anyone else did in arguably the biggest race of the week but it’d been a long slog up to the Friday. Still enjoy the challenge and watching the racing but its an exhausting week, I’ll be ready for Aintree by next Saturday probably lol. I’ll be delighted if I’m not down by much.
I’ve had an Ante Post bloodbath.. pants truly pulled down
part of the way I do it and won myself a nice holiday last year so its a case of taking my punishment on the chin and lose some more on the day of the races market…
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I don’t know about you guys but its got easier with time/age/experience. I just accept now its really competitive racing and even some of the paid tipsters on Racing Post or whatever go through the week without a winner, what chance have us mortals with regular jobs and lifes to live got? I’m a lot kinder to myself if its a bad week now, we choose to pursue this hobby and you’ve got to take the rough with the smooth. Try and enjoy the racing even if the punting isn’t going so well
Some years I rejoice I’ve had one winner, normally fed up come Friday. A blinding four days though.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Know the feeling all too well Refuse To Bend, I normally need a good break after Cheltenham until Aintree comes round.
To avoid disappointment have no expectations
For the last few years I have thought I’m just going to watch then the Racing Post brain washes me into parting with my Shekels. Never go crazy though set limits and stick to it even if I win thousands on day one.The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Going in well down, some poor bets, and some bad luck. A win for Ballyburn would only just about clear those current losses. I could cash out a few for a profit, but don’t intend to. Gidleigh Park could be the most annoying of those. He’s 40 on exchanges for the Ballymore, but hasn’t shortened at all for the Albert Bartlett. At least I won’t be shocked by the decision, however stupid it might appear.
Turned it around before, but not confident I will do that this year.
Me too, I always budget for my bets to be losing ones
Not interested in odds on favourites, much more fun trying to find some e/w value. Cheltenham is far less competitive than it used to be.
These days not as many outsiders win.
…And – as long as he / she finds the value – even in a seemingly competitive race a punter can bet multiple horses to have a good chance of winning the race. eg Backing two 7/1 shots is the same as backing one @ 3/1 shot. etc.Value Is EverythingI have often done well at the festival. I made a loss last year but that was the first one for a few years.
I agree with Ginger – I wouldn’t be looking for big prices in the handicaps. Horses towards the top end of the market tend to win them.
Just looked at my handicap winners since 2016 – all of these were backed at 10/1+, some much bigger.
Pertemps – Mall Dini, Delta Work, Mrs Milner
Plate – Empire Of Dirt, Simply The Betts, Seddon
Close Brothers – Tully East
Martin Pipe – Indefatigable, Iroko
Grand Annual – Sky Pirate
Ultima – Corach RamblerLast year it was roughly 50/50 single to double figure odds in the handicaps. It is still a lottery to me.
6/1
18/1
9/1
22/1
9/1
20/1
10/1
33/1
6/1The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
2022 aside from State Man in the County they were all double figures.
10/1
10/1
33/1
14/1
25/1
22/1
40/1
12/1The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Had a disaster on ante post front only really got Ballyburn and Fact To File to help me out , also got Tullyhill in supreme but lost confidence in that
“I agree with Ginger – I wouldn’t be looking for big prices in the handicaps. Horses towards the top end of the market tend to win them”
——————————–I didn’t exactly mean that, CAS.
There are some bigger prices worth taking.
My point about not as many outsiders winning is really concerned with the non-handicaps. Many non-handicaps have an odds-on or at least under 2/1 fav… And the number of horses in non-handicaps that are under 3/1 seems to have increased over the last decade and so – in non-handicaps – shorter priced horses have a bigger share of the book than they used to and therefore win more often. It just means non-handicap races are generally less competitive nowadays.Am still going after the bigger priced winner though. eg 16/1 Protektorat Ryanair. Although I will probably be having more bets at lesser prices in that race too, when I can identify some more value.
The handicaps may well still be fairly open. The point I was trying to make about them is punters can find more than one horse in a large field that are value – including sometimes rank outsiders… And backing multiple horses means having the same chance as if backing just one horse in a less competitive race at say 5/1, or backing one horse @ 100/30 or even the same as backing one horse at long odds-on.
eg Backing two horses, one £10.00 @ 9/1, one £6.67 @ 14/1 is pretty much the same as backing one horse £16.67 @ 5/1…
And if adding to that another two horses (four in all) one £3.45 @ 28/1 and one £2.94 @ 33/1… you’ve got almost the same bet as one horse backed £23.06 @ 100/30.ie Even in a competitive handicap a punter can have a bet at whatever price he likes, even long odds-on if backing enough horses in the race. The race is what the punter makes it. Obviously if backing just the one horse in each race and they’re all outsiders, he / she is not going to have many winners… But one winner may well pay for everything else. Whereas I will probably have more winners but will need more.
Value Is Everything
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