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I was very pleased with TADREEB Sam.
He sadly got a slow start and was right up the back end, but towards the finish you can see him flying home to just miss out on third place.
He’s in the notebook for next time.
Jac
Vision Of Hope my only winner today in the comp 100/30 Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...He went very well and you were right to put him up.
Best wishes for the new year Triptych.
Well done with vision of hope.
My last selection was collared by a course winner just as he went to break his duck.
The silly thing is I’d had a conversation about the winning horse earlier in the year with a friend who was keen on him and I said he was carrying too much weight but would be better later in the year..
Happy new year.2023 has flown by and the source of the Nile is not as easy to find as I thought.
However, I’m getting there.
For the first time ever, I’ve even got an avatar.
I’ve worked out the physics and having made a big statement about it and putting myself out on a limb, I put myself under the cosh trying to prove it when there is no need to.
Hopefully I can make less selections from here on in and as a result land more winners and make a gradual profit.
David Evans has two runners at Chepstow today in the same race and it is not unusual to see him run two.
“Charlie” is the one that interests me in this nursery. He was slowly away last time out and received a heavy bump coming out of the stalls as well. That normally does for a runner’s chances over the minimum trip, but he recovered very strongly and was runnning good fractions throughout the race.
Macarone under Paul Hanagan was always going to win that day and he was one of my selections in a combination tricast. suffice to say I was one horse short and there was no cigar.
“Charlie” was full of running at the finish and with a clear run he should be right up there.
The other runner in this race who may run well is Proficient.
Proficient makes a handicap debut here and is drawn alongside Charlie mason.
He was also bumped into after showing up well the last day and could be better than shown up to now on this drop in class.
CHEPSTOW 2:15
Selections win Charlie Mason
Each way Proficient
There is a strong physics angle to this race and my selections, but that is by the by.
Finally the draw system I adapted to try and find winners tells me the mean average winning stall for races over a certain period. The findings I’ve made usual a very simple method points to stall 6 being the place to be here and the top weight GOODEVENING MR BOND is that horse so a small win to cover my selections and a combination tricast is the third call here.
Draw data
Goodeveningmrbond
Charlie Mason
Proficient
Combination tricastA very comfortable winner in the first at Chepstow and it is clear now that David Evans had placed his runners here in the hope of a stable one two.
Very satisfied with the winner and going close with two horses. David Evans is my go to trainer and I’ll pay closer attention to his placing as he certainly knows what he is doing.
There may be a selection in the last race at Chepstow or over the jumps at cartmel or Ireland later. Main concern today is gardening!!!Chepstow 4:pm
Tirac
little boy blue
autumn festival
combination forecast
autumn Festival
win
rattled up a five timer at this time last year and has not won since. He has reached a mark below the point where he can go again and given that his win here was by 9 lengths, finding that form again is the key to this horse. He was also third in a class three so is headed the right way
jason Watson rides.
The last at Chepstow 5:10
Musical mystery
Win
Gilt edged
Each way
The absence of the cola kid in stall 13 is key to the outcome.First two home in the opening tricast attempt and a winner in goodeveningmrbond.
Good start to the week.Newbury 2:00
Using draw data here and
LOOKING FOR QUEEN
Each way
In stall 7 gets an each way vote
A never nearer staying on fourth on debut behind symbiology, both her mum and sister improved to win second time out.
The favourite here is an Irish raider and the form has to be strong and yet she was one of only two racing on dubious ground on the far side. The outliers may well have been the ones on the other side, closer to the stands rail and inner track, judging by the obvious draw bias that day. Another plus in favour of the selection is Oisin Murphy and his excellent first ride of the day statastics. We’ve got the draw bias onside l, Murphys lore and the potential bounce factor from the stall 9 raider under James Doyle which could significantly inpact on those drawn nearby principally stall 7. All said and done the favourite has everything in her favour but you are welcome to here at the odds on price. Nothing in this race should be under 4/1. So I am talking the physics of free energy and the principal horse one way or another will give a tow to one or more horses…..Newcastle 6:45
Billy mill
Win
Can land this race off a five pound lower mark than when winning here in a higher grade last year.
Touched off by a nose recently at kempton and holds a strong chance under this jockey
If unable to see this through waiting in the wings are a host of candidates including YASSER WinNewcastle 7:15
NORDIC PASSAGE
Win
has been nutted twice in as many races. Dylan Browne Magonagle the jockey tonight.
Treacherous
expert eye
ataser
nordic passage
All in a combination tricast they represent the “spread of the field.”
Newwcastle 7:45
Seriously hard race to fathom the new kid on the block is impressive last time out winner
NEW DAYRELL
WIN
Wind your neck in
win
storm catcher
Combination forecast
Nordic passage and Billy mill were the two racing league winners at very nice prices for win bets.
I see an angle and don’t swallow the negative rhetoric about it. Two winners at one meeting is plenty enough to make the racing league punter friendly.Carlisle 3:00
The Dunkirk lads last won at Beverley in April off the same mark but in a grade higher.
The likeable Show me show me however is on a three timer and has the box seat drawn in stall 1 despite a whole host of runners back down to winning marks looks the one to beat.
SHOW ME SHOW ME
Win
…crucially has been dropped in class here and has everything in his favour.
THE DUNKIRK LADS
Each way
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