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Hi all,
Looking at tomorrow’s high class card at Longchamp (the group 1’s), my very simple question is;
<b>Will the French have a winner?</b>
Kingsgaite Native
Laureldean Gale
Rio De La Plata
Light Shift
Authorized
YeatsThey all have excellent chances, and are all, barring Light Shift, very strong and worthy favourites.
It could be a bad day for the French <!– s:lol: –>
<!– s:lol: –> Mike
Vadapolina should give Light Shift plenty to think about if the ground is on the softish side.
We had a number of relatively well fancied runners today that didn’t go too well, due in no small part to the ground proving extremely testing – Echo Of Light was out on his feet a furlong out and All My Loving was very disappointing (though running her so soon after Ascot probably wasn’t the greatest idea).
I don’t think Kingsgate Native has a hope of winning the l’Abbaye with the ground as it is and carrying 8-7, especiialy with the likes of Moss Vale and Benbaun in attendance, but if he is turned over it will be by one of our lot – hopefully the former of the above-named pair.
Gipson Dessert and Peace Royale look live dangers to Laureldean Gale, the latter in particular, and Dominante and Vadapolina should prove too strong for Light Shift. Authorized is vulnerable in my eyes, Mandesha looking the one to benefit from any chinks in his armour and Yeats isn’t by any means a certainity on soft ground (Le Miracle, if back to his best, could pose a threat over this trip).
Rio De La Plata on the other hand need only turn up to win. He is clearly one of the best juveniles around and I can’t wait for him to clash with Fast Company of Brian Meehan’s on decent ground.
At first blick it all looks very easy:-
KINGSGATE NATIVE will kick the day off in fine style,theirs no reason anything in that line up will beat him,start box 9 wouldnt be optimum but the better horses have a wider sit and he`s got plenty of pace,York is a good test for Longchamp as you need to race handy at both venues……..straight forward this!!
LAURALDEAN GALE had an hard race against PROVISIO and that`s the only thing that gives me a slight worry,trip,going are fine,Box 11 ain`t nice but the opposition aint out of the ordinary , PEACE ROYALE could be interesting for the forecast (Reversed in France),she got beat at Baden Baden but jockey was a little guilty in taking her the wrong side of the winner,some intimidation stopped her winning,still,not really good enough to beat LG if that one comes out in top shape!
RIO DE PLATA is a tap in,Frankie will be keen to give him a good ride has he messed up last time!!
I hope LIGHT SHIFT returns to her best,opposition isn`t outstanding so its a question of taking a chance!!
AUTHORISED has an horrible sit but class will get him through!
YEATS is a non brainer
Hardly origional i know,great days racing all the same!!
Looking at the Abbaye, I’m getting stronger and stronger on Peace Offering. Okay so he needs to improve plenty in theory, but most of his form rivals look unlikely to run up to their best in the conditions. Peace Offering has steadily got better this year, is a winner over course and distance, fully effective on heavy and good to firm going and has an ideal draw in 1 to get the prominent position which clearly suits him so well.
I think 14/1 looks a really good bet.
Vadapolina should give Light Shift plenty to think about if the ground is on the softish side.
How highly that Prix de Psyche form DJ?
can someone explain to me why Aidan O’Brien has supplemented Song of Hiawatha for the Arc?
can someone explain to me why Aidan O’Brien has supplemented Song of Hiawatha for the Arc?
No idea.
In every big race this season O’Brien seens to have had about 36 runners.
God only knows why, I can’t remember many (if any??) of his third or forth strings winning any of these races.
He was employed as pacemaker in the Juddmonte and Niel.
Does anyone know for definite whether Soldier of Fortune and Dylan Thomas will be coupled on the PMU?
I strongly fancy Satwa Queen against Light Shift if the ground remains soft. 2nd in the race last year behind Arc fancy Mandesha and unbeaten on soft ground.
Would also go against Laureldean Gale with a choice to me made from a couple of outsiders in Gagnoa and Gipson Desert with maybe slight preference for the former.
I would be very wary of the so called good things.
Rio De La Plata – Has top class form yes but none of it on soft ground. 8/13? Not what I’d call a bet.
Light Shift – Has disappointed a little bit after Epsom truth be told. Ran well in the Irish Oaks but though her run at Goodwood was no disgrace I expected better. Still not convinced about her optimum conditions – maybe twelve furlongs on good ground? This is no penalty kick.
The other races look open to me especially on the ground.
The Arc – For me between Authorized and Soldier Of Fortune with preference for the former.
Authorized is not a price that appeals to me though so I won’t get involved. I will just watch the days action without having a bet.
Rio De La Plata – Has top class form
People may question my sanity but I have to say, apart from his last run in a group one in Ireland, what has he done? Finshed third in a maiden, then gone on to win a maiden [Wow Wee!
] and then gone on to beat nothing in a group two, not a single horse in that race went on to do anything. i’ve seen many a horse run in a couple of maidens, then win a silly group race and then go close in a group one, never to be seen again, it’s a sequence i’m familair with.Now granted, the fact that he’s so short does question my logic, but if there’s even a little bit of truth about his actual form, then as you say the price does seem short enough.
He won the Group two well then his performance in the Group one was good enough to make him clear form choice here. That is good class form to date.
He may win by half the track tomorrow but I think you’ve got to be a sandwich short of a picnic to back him at odds on when he’s never run on ground like it will be at Longchamp.
DavidJohnson………Afraid so and the coupling doesn`t stop at two,all 4 are grouped for betting purposes
ylon Thomas,Song of Hawatha,Yellowstone/Soldier of Fortune.If you fancy one of the runners you might be better off going in the place pool as nothing is coupled ,What you tend to find is the Brits play the win market on the PMU they forget about the place and exotics,with so many Brits in Paris this weekend their influence on the pools make the Book very lobsided!
Example ANNA PAVLOVA 4,4 win 2,5 Place
Industry sp 3,75 win 1,55 placeIf you are a little clever you should be betting with the Book in your favour
Hi all,
Looking at tomorrow’s high class card at Longchamp (the group 1’s), my very simple question is;
Will the French have a winner?
Pretty stupid I know but there is a horse called "The French" running in the first race (hcp) at Longchamp today!
Bet you’ll all back it now!
apart from his last run in a group one in Ireland, what has he done?
And what have the Romans ever done for us?
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