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Goodlife
I, too, am old enough to remember Ken Hussey and his ratings and he was, I think, a friend, as well as a colleague, of Tony Peach, the editor of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and thus the chap responsible for selecting for publication the initial VDW letters.
Interesting to see s/f being discussed in relation to VDW. Many of the VDW experts think s/f have very little to do with VDW’s thinking, and they were only used to compile lists. I have never quite been able to understand this thinking as these lists in the main were lists of GOOD horses to follow when conditions suited. The main factor used to decide if the horse was good enough was the s/f. If this applies to young horses 2/3 year olds why not older horses? In fact VDW did say ANY horse, subject to certain conditions could be entered on a list. even NH horses.
One of the reasons put forward against s/f being used in the methods seems to be based on Mr Peach saying VDW only mentioned s/f AFTER he ( Mr Peach) had suggested using them. VDW says he was using s/f as far back as 1967 long before his first letters to the SCHB. He also said Jock Bingham was well on his way to understanding the methods, and JB used s/f.
VDW suggested using the unadjusted s/f, and not to adjust for weight carried on the day. This being so I don’t think it matters what s/f are used, but stick to the same ones once/when you have decided. I think a realistic s/f is 100+ for 2 year olds and would look for 110 for 3 year olds +. Not adjusting for weight carried on the day I think makes sense as speed is the commodity being measured. The effect weight may, or may not have on a horse is open to debate, and I think there are often elements like class, and course configuration, that have a bigger effect than weight.
Be Lucky
good idea artemis.. enjoy reading any posts on speed figures trying to find some articles by j hutty, from the handicap book early 1990s..speed figures
Hi Monster
First of all, I notice that this is your first post so welcome to the forum and thank you for your interesting and informative reply. I will check out the sources that you mention. I have favoured the idea of making lists of horses to follow for some years and have put into practice all of the ideas that VDW submitted in “Systematic Bettingâ€Sorry,
I don’t know you will have to contact Cormack.
I would presume it was somebody that has been banned in the past and re-registered under a new name.
Regards- Matron
Sorry,
I don’t know you will have to contact Cormack.
I would presume it was somebody that has been banned in the past and re-registered under a new name.
Regards- Matron
Hi Matron & David
Nothing sinister just a computer problem, but my original post will still be credited to guest.
Re Roushayd Example.
I thought that it might be useful to fill in the gaps from his 3 yr Old career.
Last six runs
15/05/87 ran best speedv fig (64) in class 110 handicap, 12f, 5/1 2nd fav
27/07/87 Won maiden (down in class) 4/7 fav
19/08/87 Finished 8th 115 Handicap 14f 16/1
12/09/87 Stakes Race (Down in Class ) 12f won 7/2 3r fav
26/09/87 115 Handicap (Up in Class) 12f won 14/1
24/10/87 Group 3 (Up In Class) 12f, 8/1 4th Fav last of 11 runnersAn important point that VDW Raised in the Roushayd example.
" Form is what they did and class is the level at which it was achieved. Therefore, when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated with other aspects such as distance, going, track etc. Whatever the form and class, a long striding galloping horse is ALMOST BOUND TO COME UNSTUCK ON A SHARP TRACK
The end part of the quote is what stops the Roushayd method becoming a system. If you check out the Timeform comment for Roushayd he is described as Long Striding. So his performance in the Northern Dancer Handicap at Epsom, prior to winning at Haydock, was even better seeing as he recorded a career Best Speed rating.During the AW season I have been developing a class rating based on Class of Competitor, OR and combined with distance won or beaten etc.
The Class ratings were then adjusted for each handicap based on the best rating from the last 3 runs. The two examples for Sands Crooner should explain. (See Google Doc Link) The Top rated is analysed for other positives. Speed, Track, surface, distance, pace etc. You will notice that I have the 2008 AW record for Sands Crooner and how his Class ratings changed etc, followed by two race examples.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … Ieb1SCdhMw
My Turf ratings example are up to date for the 2008 season in ratings order and are at the following google doc link. the full data base includes race class contested and race coments etc. They are for my personal use and I will not be selling or promoting them on a commercial basis, but thought that it might be useful to explain a different approach.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … 5IuQJensRQ
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Monster,
I’m always interested in a different approach to the rating of horses and I can see from your work that your method has been well thought out.
Unfortunately, your spreadsheets are ‘chopped down’ on the link you provided and I cannot see all of your text explaining your reasoning. Is there any other way to view these pages?
Artemis
If you copy the text from his spreadsheet and paste to Word or Excel, the full text becomes available. For the record, the narrative on the first spreadsheet is:
"Points to note The Ajusted Rating is arrived at by deducting the OR from the rating next to the name of the horse.
The race class is my estimation of the strength of competion. (I do record the estimation of class competition for each runner in my results data base, but not included in this cut down example)
In Both races Sands Crooner has a higher adjusted rating than the Race Class Figure. (I see this as a positive)
Having found the horse with the highest class rating, I then check out if it has the recent speed to win the race and is suited by the Course, Distance and Pace."
Hi Monster,
I’m always interested in a different approach to the rating of horses and I can see from your work that your method has been well thought out.
Unfortunately, your spreadsheets are ‘chopped down’ on the link you provided and I cannot see all of your text explaining your reasoning. Is there any other way to view these pages?
Hi Artemis
I have edited the Google doc and you should now be able to read the text beneath the ratings for the Sands Crooner Examples.
Good Luck
Monster
RE – An important point that VDW Raised in the Roushayd example.
” Form is what they did and class is the level at which it was achieved. Therefore, when looking at the relative merits of one horse against another, these two elements class and form must be equated with other aspects such as distance, going, track etc. Whatever the form and class, a long striding galloping horse is ALMOST BOUND TO COME UNSTUCK ON A SHARP TRACK
The end part of the quote is what stops the Roushayd method becoming a system.Another clue that VDW was not reling on just a High Speed Figure and Dropped in Class to arrive at a Wiiner In The Race, comes from the following information contained in ‘Systematic Betting’
VDW ” For example two of my favourite races come at the early July Haydock meeting. They are the Old Newton Cup and The Lancashire Oaks both on the same card. There is usually a dead certainty in one or the other and two yeras ago (1988) it was Roushayd in The Old Newton Cup. 1987 gave me two certainties, Pipsted in The Old Newton Cup and Three Tails i The Lancashire Oaks.” End
Its worth inspecting Pipsted and Gorgeous Strike prior to Running in The Old Newton Cup
Pipstead King Goerge V Handicap (0-110) Class 113 Speed Fig 65 (Soft)
Gorgeous Strike Northern Dancer Handicap (0-110) Class 192 Speed Fig 79 (Good)
Clearly VDW was taking other aspects into consideration if he thought that Pipsted was a certainty. I suspect that the reason the ‘Roushayd Method’ fails for some is that they try turn the method into a system.
VDW was good at appraising many other aspects including course and distance suitability, remember what he said about Kempton not being the track for Forgive ‘N’ Forget.
Good Luck
Monster
Over the years I have tried to look at as many VDW andgles as I can. As far as I am concerned If VDW took the trouble to write about it, then it must be worth exploring the angle further.
VDW wrote about weight being a great leveller, and mentioned that a trainer will leave a high weighted horse in a race to prevent another charge suffering from raised weights. He then stated that you should ponder why the high weighted horse was entered in the first place.
Sometimes it is an advantage to the trainer to compress the weights. Not only does it stop the weights being raised for his other runner, but may also put competitors out of the handicap so that they carry more weight than the handicapper intended against their Offiicial Rating.
The following example of this was posted Pre race on the old Peach Forum.
John Dunlop declared two runners at York 8th October 2005, 2mile 4fur (going Soft) and he owned both runners, which meant that he personally paid for both entry fees and the prize money was modest.
He ran the Top weight Harlestone Grey (7 years old) who carried Top weight of Ten Stone and had winning form over 12f.
John Dunlop also ran The Nawab (3 Years Old) who had been improving steadily and who had won over 2 miles Lto, carrying 8st 12 lbs. Was now stepping up from class 4 to class 3 and carried 8st 2lbs.
The Nawab won 7/2
Good Luck
Monster
Pipstead King Goerge V Handicap (0-110) Class 113 Speed Fig 65 (Soft)
Gorgeous Strike Northern Dancer Handicap (0-110) Class 192 Speed Fig 79 (Good)Monster,
A quick question if I may. Are the above s/f the best achieved to that date for both those horses, and where they the last runs for both horses?
Be Lucky
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