- This topic has 581 replies, 56 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Hello Boozer,
To any newbies out there,I think it is important to point out that there have been a number of misprints in Tony Peach’s booklets over the years,two off the top of my head from the "Golden Years",are the date of the cobnut selling race was 4th August not the 2nd,and the horse called The Old Fellow in the booklets,was actually called "The Old Feller".
It just illustrates that there were mistakes made.
People might already be aware of this but I’ll point it out anyway – Prominent King’s actual form figures were 4 – 2 2.
Greetings
Pipe dreamer, Mtoto,Maggsy ,Lee, Barney,Crock,IMG. All and
JIB
(Now theres a turn up)
Quite a cosy little annexe here!
JIB
(Now theres a turn up)B, I think F has benefited as much as JIB.
class tells
Yes, it is referred to in the letter reprinted in the "Golden Years" as item 35, "A Method Not Rules Needed", but one does need the Form Books to study the example.
One of are aeroplanes is missing.
Its just like old times having the group back together. I remember some old names, but where is Guest is he on here posting under another name?
Lee I agree with you that weight is a factor, but Mtoto makes some good points which I don’t think anyo ne has answered yet. They can’t just be ignored. Mtoto you mention an example of a 7Ib turn around. what example do you mean?As for why does’nt VDW mention weight when talking about how to assess form you could also ask why does’ny he mention distance ,but he says to lokk at the going. I know that distance is taken into account in the second numerical picture, but may be weight is more to do with capability than form like distance is.
Looking at the Roushayd example why was is a bet when Roushyd was set to carry 9-10 when Roushayd had never won with that kind of weight, but had performed well when carrying weight. As we keep saying this is a method not a set of rules so inteligent judgement has to be shown and each race is different.Canny Danny was running over 3miles 5 furlongs and my research suggests that weight becomes more important the longer the race, so may be this is why in some examples VDW uses weight as a factor and other times seems to ignore it.
Boozer,
Great to see you are still writing out slips!
The way I now work when Kathology split Marsad and Peruvian Chief on 22-05-02 he put in an 86 if you disregard the first two; (not something I would necessarily recomend).
When kathology ran on the 31-05-02 he only faced opposition rated 63.
The 5/2 was a gift.
- Total Posts 12
Magssy
I’m sure the horse Mtoto is refering to is Braashee with Cossack Guard in the 1989 Tote Festival H’cp at Ascot with 7lb turn around in form.
I must say that it is heart warming to see so many old friends from the past come together. I recognise a couple of names, and a fair few I don’t, so a very warm welcome to the forum.
Mandrake
Maggsy
If Mandrake is correct, have a look at the respective form of Braashee and Cossack Guard and, from what VDW had shown previously, you should have no difficulty seeing why he was confident the former would confirm placings.
The example provides a good illustration of the potential danger of focusing on one facet rather than the whole picture. From the weight angle viewed in isolation, it is a case of a horse being backed to confirm despite being 7lb worse off for a neck beating. But the wider picture is of a much higher ability rated consistent form horse being backed to beat a much lower ability rated one who, although also a consistent horse, had gone off the boil and was not a form horse.
Hi Grand Lodge
This following information is based on ten-year stats and might help settle some of the debate about weights in handicap races:
[code:296tbrxb]
Weights Win Ratio
Top-third v Middle-third 2:1
Top-third v Bottom-third 3:1Middle-third v Bottom-third 2:1
[/code:296tbrxb]Hope this is of help.
GL
These are very interesting statistics, even though they are mathematically incorrect as pointed out. I have always believed there was a bias towards winners coming from the top of a handicap, but I wouldn’t have thought that it was as pronounced as above. I suppose when prices are factored in, the bias becomes less noticeable because the shorter prices are skewed towards the top.
This is such valuable information, it makes me wonder if anyone has done similar research and arrived at the same results. If we could be sure of this relationship over a very large sample, it can easily be built in to any predictive model. I think I tend to allow for it intuitevely because of my observations over many years, but I’ve never been sure.
Hi Artemis,
They are not incorrect, it’s just that I rounded the numbers up. The middle v bottom ratio is around 1.67:1.
I have more stats to come, including horses carrying less weight from LTO v horses carrying more wieght from LTO, plus a few more eye openers.
This time I won’t round up the figures.
GL
Can anyone help with the following,
1/ Was Proven going up in class when VDW made him a selection,I can’t decipher it as my formbook is a bit dishevelled,not unlike myself.
2/ Did Son of Love feature in the 3 most consistent?I seem to recall a discussion previously where someone alluded to the fact that all his previous form wasn’t included in the formbook.
Thanks in anticipation.
Lingfield 4.10 yesterday conflict won the day?
Here are some more stats for you guys:
Weight difference from LTO – All races
More: 11,083 /108,413 10.22%
Less: 9,768 /113,231 8.63%Weight difference from LTO – Same class
More: 3,925/38,120 10.30%
Less: 3,630/40,950 8.86%Weight difference from LTO – Handicap to Handicap
More: 5,474/55,031 9.95%
Less: 4,217/57,085 7.39%Weight difference from LTO – Handicap to Handicap – Same class
More: 2,092/20,108 10.40%
Less: 1,658/22,380 7.41%Weight difference from LTO – All stakes races
More: 4,268/36,323 11.75%
Less: 4,665/39,751 11.74%
The only race-type that seems to have no effect from changes of weight!Weight difference from LTO – Stakes to Handicap
More: 1,035/10,155 10.19%
Less: 1,412/11,093 12.73%
The only race-type that favours horses carrying less weight than LTO!There you have it. The hard facts.
GL
Those stats are great GL but only of use when reconciled against the probabilities. What I mean by that is that the horses in the top third generally start at shorter prices and are therfore perfectly entitled to the higher ratios. And so on.
Those stats are great GL but only of use when reconciled against the probabilities. What I mean by that is that the horses in the top third generally start at shorter prices and are therfore perfectly entitled to the higher ratios. And so on.
Cormack,
I can understand and agree with the first sentence but do not understand where you are coming from with the second one.
GL
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.