- This topic has 581 replies, 56 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
410A Mutajarred is a faultless example of the classiest horse that has been placed to win.
Looks like its been abridged in the new book and Tony Peach has left it out.How many more has he left out of the reprints?
No arguing with today’s selection, confident selection and duly does the business.
Well done all.
Hi JG
Why is that?
I looked at AR, OR, RPR and TS and none of them seemed to indicate he is the class horse. Also, he goes up 2f for this one too.
What have I missed?
BC opps, I mean GH
Greyhound (gato negro),
It is early days to be going into details. You have been racing long enough to be familiar with Sod’s Law!
One thing I have learned though is that good horses have ‘careers’.
L33,
Can I ask why you didn’t put up Red Gala today? Please understand I’m not suggesting you should off, but I think many who look on VDW as a system would have expected him to be a selection.
If the criteria as set out in SIAO had been followed he would have looked good. Even down to the fact he was backed up by two different sets of ratings. He was the top rated using Formcast from the Mail, a rating that is often quoted as being something VDW used. I also think he was top rated using the RPR from the Post. + he was again top rated using one of the popular speed ratings. He was also a distance winner on good to soft. So what put you off? Was it a combination of "small" things, or one factor that said it can’t win this?
Be Lucky
Mtoto
Perhaps the basic numerics will prove to go at least some way to providing the explanation:
Consistent horses:
03: Red Gala
08: Font, Buccellati
12: Mariotto
15: Ladies BestConsistent horses ranked by ability rating:
117: Buccellati
095: Red Gala
073: Mariotto
047: Ladies Best
029: FontHensman,
That is what I was trying to find out was the difference in the ability rating the deciding factor against Red Gala for L33?
When the examples in SIAO are studied three times VDW didn’t take the top rated on ability, albeit for different reasons. He does say use two other rating to confirm what the reliability of the figures, if this is done Buccellati is found wanting whereas the 2nd rated RG isn’t.
Have to admit I didn’t look at the forecast in the Post, so I have no idea if B was in the first six, so I don’t know if he would have been in the reckoning using SIAO.
The point I’m trying to make is there is no way VDW should be on the systems thread/forum. There is far more to it than being a system. I think weight was a deciding factor against RG for many. Personally I wasn’t that happy with the course, and the fact his best form was over 10f.
Be Lucky
Mtoto
Obviously I’ve no idea whether L33 analysed the race, let alone bet in it.
My post had two purposes. First, to provide yet another illustration of the power of the oft-derided VDW basic numerics: for the third Saturday running the VDW consistent horses have included the winner of the big handicap (and in fact the winner has been the highest ability rated of those consistent horses). Obviously this isn’t the case every week, and as has been made clear on the thread VDW’s approach is a method not a system and merely identifying the consistent horses, and the top ability rated among them, is far from the end of the road in deciding whether to bet. But I suggest that, even over three weeks, enough has been demonstrated to make any open minded person wonder whether there is more in this body of work than suggested by the dismissive comments by folk whose understanding of it seems non existent. Second, to suggest that the basic steps as indicated in the in the article to which you refer would give a reason for pausing before lumping on the short priced favourite as a sole bet.
Hi gang
anyone that would like a VDW spreadsheet, just PM me your email.
byefrom
carlisleMtoto,
Please let me first of all state that just because I didn’t post any bets yesterday, or indeed any other day, doesn’t mean to say I didn’t place any. Most of my bets are multiple bets, like VDWs, which come around most days.
On to the question asked. In short it was a combination of ‘small things’ as you put it that should have warned anyone using the method that Red Gala was never a good thing, and indeed a false favourite. I will give a couple of reasons that are plain to see and which VDW himself warned of.
1. The numerical picture/s – conflict.
2. Last time out winners going up in class and distance should be treated with caution.
3. Red Gala giving weight all-round, particularly to a higher class horse, coming from a higher class form race. The same horse showing up well in the numerical pictures – and not just a couple of lbs.Indeed, I’m certain that had VDW been around today Red Gala would have been a very confident lay.
There is nothing in the above that wasn’t catagorically stated by VDW in his writings, and I hope that people will see it as a reply to a question and not being clever after the event.
L33 now know how to work out the full numerical picture as vdw had done with the help of someone who backs slow horses with the two 3rd and 4th columns now as he rated will it become more obvious as i used 3rd column anyway . or is it as i suspect still the same ? going to use his ratings for a while to see how it goes
On to the question asked. In short it was a combination of ‘small things’ as you put it that should have warned anyone using the method that Red Gala was never a good thing, and indeed a false favourite.
L33,
Thanks for your reply, I agree there was enough to stop RG being a bet, but I’m not sure they were enough to make him a false favourite.
While I can see where your coming from with the "warnings" they singularly in themselves are not enough to rule any horse out of the equation. So just another clue as to why this not a system. For me at least many of the VDW selected races had conflict, and VDW again selected a few horses that had won their last races and then were going up in class and distance.
Class tells,
going to use his ratings for a while to see how it goes.
Can I ask who he is in the above quotation? If its VDW fair enough, but if its anyone else why do you think that is the answer. As said before Formcast has been forwarded as a possible solution, but it is a fact there was no Formcast published for the Erin. Also Sunset Cristo was the lowest of the runners in his race using Formcast, from memory he had a 68 to his name. It should also be remembered VDW said about these other ratings … The final two columns in the illustrations are my own ratings and were, like the ability ratings, evolved by myself, so will not be found in any publication, etc.
Be Lucky
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.