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As always an interesting collection of views on the topic, and it appears to show clearly the reason why some think the method to be absolute tosh – they bet in sprints.
As far as I can recall the method is really only suitable over jumps and in races 7f and upward, and even a bit iffy at 7f.
Somewhere or another in the VDW writings there is the ‘horses for next year’ selection which indicates to look for 2yo’s that have run less than 3 times and recorded good speed figures at 7f or over at grade 1 tracks that have not won." These are to be looked at carefully in their 3yo season as likely winners to recoup the stabling fees.
Sprinters by their nature turn out week after week and win in their turn and are subject to vagaries of the draw.
High class milers and stayers need to be brought to peak performance for that big effort, and maybe follow up shortly after, and then have a break.
These are the horses I believe the method is targetting.
I am not aware of any examples of sprint analysis within the VDW literature (but I am happy to be shown I am wrong).
Good call with Amarna by the way johngringo L33 and maggsy and particulary Prince of Thebes johngringo – did you take the forecast????
No fancy bets now!!! Remember the 3d’s – discipline discipline discipline
Lee,
Thanks
Arrowson,
No forecasts!
In the end I had three win singles with more on Amarna. I had taken decent prices on the two outsiders but didn’t get my lay backs on them matched before the off. We don’t have broadband out here so I can only do lay backs in running for jumps races which allows me the time to complete!
If you understand that VDW’s three year old method is a way of spotting class in juveniles then it need not be confined to the exact method he outlines.
- Total Posts 12
Lee, John G, Maggsy
Can’t help being impressed by your VDW selections and hopefully it will give hope to us others who are still way off their goal.
Arrowson
The only sprinter which comes to mind is Abathatc from the 1988 season, not sure whether Soaf was a bet or just for reference. I think you are right about them being a lottery, they are not my cup of tea.
Thanks lads
Mandrake
Arowson
There are several sprints, ie:
Vaigly Great: 18/04/79 or 05/05/79
The Old Feller: 04/08/79
Soaf: 04/08/79
Abathatc: 02/05/88and several over 7f.
The method works for any kind of race over any distance. "The reason why some think the method to be absolute tosh", as you put it, is quite simple. They don’t understand it.
L33
Well done with that selection.
Hensman
I agree that the method works over all distances, but I was always of the opinion that 5 and 6f races were a small minority of the 100+ selections VDW gave. That perhaps leads some to think that he mosty left the big field 5 and 6f races alone.
Well done L33, JG & Maggsy
Good to see pre-race selections using VDW- and even better to see them win!!
Also, just want to say that it’s great to see L33 & JG posting here – I will be following the thread with great interest.
GH
- Total Posts 12
Lee , Hensman or any one else
The totals for the consistency figures for the 1978 Erin, are they errors or are they a secret code which some people have said on another board. I’d love to clear that one up.
Thanks
Mandrake
Samson
You wrote: "I was always of the opinion that 5 and 6f races were a small minority of the 100+ selections VDW gave."
Quite correct, but bear in mind that most of VDW’s selections were on the NH (he once wrote that he tended to be away for much of the Flat season). Sprints are probably disproportionately few among the Flat selections but I doubt we can safely assume that that is significant.
…also, I seem to recall that G. Hall wrote that the Method threw up fewer bets during the NH. VDW’s reply did not correct that suggestion.
Hensmen did VDW put foward 100+ selections? I though it was only about 50 and where does he talk about Abathatc? Am I missing something?
I think it throws up fewer bets over Jumps because of the weather affecting the races during the winter and meetings being cancelled.More racing during the summer when the Flat is in full swing.
Mandrake
I am not certain.
Maggsy
Yes, well over 100. Abathatc is discussed in chapter 6 of "Systematic Betting".
Greyhound
If it was indeed true that VDW was regularly out of the country for much of most Flat seasons, that would account for the smaller number of Flat selections among his examples. But maybe if he had been around he might well have found proportionately more bets on the Flat than on the NH, as Mr Hall seems to have done.
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