VDW in Action – Sat 27th

[cormack15]

Newbury 2.50 – St. Simon Stakes

For me Galactic Star will not get beaten in this.

I thought it’d be a nice race to VDW.

How does it shape up?

[Crock]

I wish you luck, Cormack. It’s not a race I’ll be getting involved in, too much conflict for me. I’m not quite sure what Galactic Star’s beating of Munsef at level weights amounts to.

Geoff Wragg has sent Ivy Creek around the houses in his last couple of runs but in hindsight his attempt to give Anna Pavlova 5lb in the Doonside Cup wasn’t a bad effort.

[grand lodge]

Cormack,

I don’t really have interests in anything containing ‘foreign’ form, especially end-of-season flat races. Personally, I would be concentrating on the NH from now on.

However, I did offer input for anything that was put up and conclude:

The only thing I have against Galactic Star is, simply, its last finish "held up, headway over 3f out, led and hung right over 1f out, ridden out". That was on a course with a 10f run-in, though, so it might have an easier time at today’s track. Probably the selection but a weak favourite.

GL

[cormack15]

Are there any suitable VDW races today then?

Come on I gotta have a bet. Must have a bet…

[grand lodge]

lol,

I’m still studying the NH races, Cormack. I might post something up later today for you.

GL

[dave jay]

My model has Red Gala top rated in that race Corm .. it’s between that one and Galactic Star for me.

[Pompete]

Corm, I wouldn’t advise having a ‘cheeky bet’ on these. It’s just a bit of fun for me and I’m a happy 50p double (mug) punter but I did VDW’ish these races last night, so just for interest:

1.25 Chepstow
Elusive Dream
Pigeon Island

1.55 Chepstow
Bring Me Sunshine
Don’t Push It

2.10 Liverpool
Border Tale
Brooklyn Breeze

2.55 Liverpool
Lyes Green
Natal

3.10 Stratford
Tora Petcha

3.55 Liverpool
Incas
Ballamusic

4.20 Stratford
Bremen

5.25 Stratford
Compton Star

[dave jay]

Red Gala .. 3/1
Galactic Star .. 4/1
Crime Scene .. 6/1
Ivy Creek .. 7/1
Linas Selection .. 7/1
Regime .. 11/1
Dash To The Front .. 18/1

[Mtoto44]

2:50 Newb

Regime 1
Galactic Star 2
Red Gala 3
Linas Selection 4

I make this very tight between the top two, but they are a fair way clear of the others.

Regime, improving on ground and course that may not have to his advantage. Best form until then has been on right handed courses. Distance has to be taken on trust, but can’t see it being a stiff pace with only one front runner. Has the look of a horse that has been targeted for this unlike some who look to be taking their chance just because.
Galactic Star. to be at his best seems to need a strong pace can’t see where that’s coming from. There is also a doubt about the going. has handled softer than good in lower class. On the figures must stand a chance, but not for me at the price.

Not a betting race for me, if pushed I would go for Regime.

Cormack,

What happened to TEMPERAMENT why the need for a bet? The 4:30 Newb has been selected in another place as the race for discussion.

Be Lucky

[cormack15]

OK – so the VDW concensus is no bet.

I can see the reasoning but I think G Star is an even money shot and will be backing it accordingly.

Mtoto – only joking about the bet thing. I don’t need to bet every 15 mins (but if I go longer than half an hour I do get a tad twitchy).

[Greyhound]

2.50 Newbury 1m4f Value 266

Horse_____Consistency_____Ability_____RPR_____TopSpeed_____Val-Dist_____Val-Dist_____Val-Dist

Crime Scene_____6*_____223*_____123*_____no_____153-1.4_____535*-1.4 _____336*-1.4

Galactic Star_____3*_____137_____126*_____no_____153-1.4_____170-1.4 _____190-1.4

Ivy Creek_____12_____122_____126*_____no_____280*-1.2_____170-1.6 _____510-1.4

Linas Selection_____8_____170*_____no_____118*_____150-1.4_____280-1.4 _____190-1.6

Red Gala_____7*_____ 94_____no_____110*_____460*-1.4_____190-1.2 _____50-1.2

Dash to the Front_____13_____87_____no_____no_____270-1.4_____340-1.4 _____140-1.3

Regime_____10_____167*_____no_____118*_____430*-1.2_____520*-1.2 _____1150*-1.2

Notes

Crime Scene
Consistent, top on ability rating, supported by RPR but not TS. Had two more valuable wins last term, and last run was season debut.

Galactic Star
Consistent. Support from RPR, but not AR or TS. Won a good race LTO beating Crime Scene in a fast time.

Ivy Creek
Support from RPR. Has been over three different distances on last three starts. Good performance in defeat to Anna Pavlova LTO.

Linas Selection
Top TS, and shows up on ability rating, but not RPR. LTO was seasonal debut.

Red Gala
Consistent, and support from TS, but not AR or RPR. Coming from a higher value race LTO, where lost by just 2L having conceded a lot of weight.

Dash to the Front
No support in the ratings. Beaten LTO in a slow race.

Regime
Support from AR and TS, but not RPR. It appears that 1m2f is his distance, so perhaps today’s race is an experiment?

Conclusion
According to VDW, it is the “sore thumbsâ€

[Formath]

Cormack,
Where are the hordes of 80-90percenters busting a gut to impress us with their VDW expertise . Never mind ‘you got me babe!’

IMHO this is a VDW ‘key’ race and there is every reason to make an investment:

5/4 Galactic Star, up 3lbs, LTO 1/8 +hd, headway, led, ridden out. Improver that likely has more to offer.
4/1 Crime Scene, up 3lbs, LTO 4/8 -2L, to Galactic Star, ridden, every chance, no extra. Improver with work to do here
9/2 Ivy Creek, dropped 1lb, LTO 3/13 -2.5L, headway, every chance, no extra. Not done as well as expected this season
5/1 Regime, dropped 5lbs, LTO 3/8 -1.75L, headway, kept on same pace under pressure. Some doubt about stamina
12/1 Red Gala
28/1 Linas Selection
? Dash To The Front

[maggsy]

Interesting race, but I wont be getting involved.

15/8 Galactic Star

3.8/1 Red Gala

6/1 Regime

10/1 Lines Selection

Galactic Star seems to have alot going for it, but won last race by only hd and ridden out and now being asked to go up in class. Has been aimed at the race though.

Red Gala raised in class, weight and distance lto now being dropped to collect possibly. Although Ryan is riding Galactic Star this time.

Regime. I have to agree with Mttoto that regime has some positives and and also being dropped in class.

To much conflict and doubt for me , but will be interesting to watch.

Nobody is forcing us to bet only ourselves.Possibly the biggest advantage we have is being selective.

[cormack15]

mmmmm- another one down to experience.

[maggsy]

Some times the only way to win is to pass the race.

[Author]

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