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Arkle
VDW said that the essence of winner finding was balancing class and form and thus form is an absolutely key element in his approach. We all have our own ideas of what form means, but as I have stressed to Mtoto it is VDW’s approach we are trying to understand and therefore it is his meaning of form we need to discover. We can’t check our conclusions with an authority – all we can do is see if our understanding is consistent with the evidence (VDW’s examples).
VDW explicitly named several form horses (eg three in both Righthand Man’s Welsh National and Wayward Lad’s King George) and it is surely certain that he saw all his selections as form horses. Further, he said various other horses were not form horses, either explictly (as with Lucky Vane and Burrough Hill Lad in the two races mentioned above), or by elimination (ie the other two horses in the race where Beau Ranger and Lean Ar Aghaidh were named as form horses.)
So we have really quite a lot of horses we know were either form horses or not form horses. My advice to you and anyone else interested in getting to grips with VDW’s approach is to study those and hope to identify what, in VDW’s eyes, made a horse a form horse or not. In this regard, VDW seems to have been principally concerned with a horse’s last three runs, and in my view (which I see L33 shares) it is those races that should be of concern from the form perspective.
And of course once one can confidently distinguish horses as form horses or not, many of the apparent problems in the VDW examples fall away, as usually a horse which is both consistent and higher ability rated than a VDW selection turns out not to be a form horse.
HI HENSMAN
A no would have been sufficient, but thank you for your insight .Thank you
ArkleThis is a 2yo race and with their limited form record I am always aware that something likeTajaaweed here could kick me in the teeth
, however I have given it a go as it is a cracking contest.Doncaster 3.40 Oct 27
15/8 Curtain Call, dropped 1lb, LTO 1/9 +4L, ridden clear, stayed on well, easily. Improver but has to act on the going.
9/4 Ibn Khaldun, LTO 1/8 +1L, pushed into lead, comfortably. Improver and should be more to come
4/1 City Leader, up 2lbs, LTO 1/11 +.75L, ridden to lead, soon hard pressed, kept on gamely. Acts on fast going but tougher today
11/2 River Proud, up 2lbs, LTO 1/8 +.75L, ridden to lead, ran on. Improver and could be thereabouts if getting the trip.
11/2 Declaration Of War, LTO 2/8 -2.5L, led briefly, soon headed, stayed on under pressure. Conditions suit but others may be too goodDoes anyone have any newspaper or sporting life ratings for the Little Owl race in spells it all out. Ideally, I would like them for all 4 races but it would be a waste of effort if nothing can be gleaned from just this one example.
Garston,
I did have the Formcast numbers for those races, The Sporting Life from memory didn’t do NH ratings at that time.
After turning the office up side down I can’t find the actual figures but have found some notes.
Little Owl’s race the figures are in the same order as VDW’s. Little Owl, Fairy King and Wayard Lad.
The next race Sunset Christo was fifth best on the ratings with a 6? maybe 68 or 63.
Gaye Chance is 4th best with a 74 as you know 78 is always the top
Kenlis is 3rd best with a 73.I have played with these figures as I have been told some think they are important and part of the VDW other figures. I’m not at all sure as there were no Formcast figures printed for the Erin. The other thing that makes me wonder is how do you adapt a rating if your not sure what is or isn’t used when the figures are compiled?
Be Lucky
Hi I’m new the the forum and reading the posts it seems the early examples need to be examined first. So I bought a 1978 formbook with the four G. Hall horses in and am wondering If anyone could tell me what imformation I need to extract from the previous runs to get a clearer picture.
thanks for any replys in advance.
hal.Hi Hal, I don’t suppose you live in a bungalow on the south side of Market Harborough by any chance do you?
Hi IMP no sorry, I do live on the south side but it’s a house
I moved here in 82 and have never met or heard of VDW locally
but I would have thought he would have lived at the woodlands if anywhereHal
I think the general assumption is that Che Van der Wheil was a pseudonym (otherwise someone would surely have identified him by now). So, who knows, he might be your next door neighbour!
Hi Hensman
There is an old couple in a bungalow two doors down who have some wooden clogs outside there house filled with flowers? I could be onto something here??morning hal —-
you could knock on their door and ask him to explain the apparent anomolies in the consistency numbers for the PK example —
by the way of being nosey, what is their house number?
IMP
I think the anomolies in the pk example could be explained or even hinted at from people on here, however if theres no help offered I just might pop over and ask. lol
Seems to have gone abit quiet on here of late.Would any one be interested in discussing the Hennesy abit later in the week. This is the race that Pegwell Bay was a winner in race and there could be another winner in the race on Saturday.This could be a good race to discuss because its the first big race of the season.Any thoughts?
Maggsy,
I think your referring to the Paddy Power Gold Cup which used to be The Mackeson this weekend at Cheltenham. Your idea of discussing it on here would be a good one. I think it would need it’s own page though.
Mike.Having come across this site by accident, it brought back many memories of some years ago of buying the schb on a thurs? friday? and reading avidly of VDW.
I then proceeded to buy all the books and to try to fathom out what the way forward was. Family came and I lost interest and stored the books away.
However coming across this site I found them a few weeks ago, read all the forum and again settled down to try to work out where he was coming from.
I came to the conclusion that having read the forum and the books again it was a method and not a rigid system that he was advocating, and if the conditions were not present then there was no bet. The method could be accessed in a number of ways and there were several approaches to what was the same method, I won`t bother to quote the usual form + so and so etc.
So I decided as I now have time on my hands to see what has changed with VDW over time and to focus not in the past but Ascot 2013.When VDW advocated looking at the first five in the betting forecast (non hcap) and first six handicap why?….the reason I suspect was that most newspapers in those days gave a very short betting forecast unlike today, when every runner is quoted by specialist newspapers or bookmakers who now provide a service and not a hole in the wall experience.
I have used THE TIMES newspaper to base my selections from. I had the first two winners of the meeting at 15/2 and 8/1 clearly identifiable together with other winners over the last few days not a 100% record by any means so how did I get there?
Take the first race on the first day and follow my selection route I am sticking to this route all the way through so if you use THE TIMES you will easily get the same selections……to be continuedPART 2:
Royal Ascot 2013 using THE TIMES newspaper.2.30pm Tuesday Queen Anne Stakes.
Thirteen runners only first six in THE TIMES betting forecast considered which gives the following which also shows last TWO form figures and days of last outing.
ANIMAL KINGDOM FORM 21 DAYS OUT 80
DECLARATION OF WAR FORM 15 DAYS OUT 31
ELUSIVE KATE FORM 23 DAYS OUT 241
ALJAMAAHEER FORM 23 DAYS OUT 31
TRADE STORM FORM 14 DAYS OUT 80
CHIL THE KITE FORM 34 DAYS OUT 31DISCARDED POOR FORM ELUSIVE KATE, ALJAMAAHEER, CHIL THE KITE……LEAVES ANIMAL KINGDOM, DECLARATION OF WAR, TRADE STORM, FITTEST AND FIRST THREE IN BETTING DECLARATION OF WAR WINS RETURNED 15/2……
3.05P.M. KINGS STAND STAKESDOING THE SAME AS BOVE GIVES SOLE POWER WINNNING RETURNS 8/1 CAN YOU WORK THROUGH THE EXAMPLE?
NINETEEN RUNNERS FIRST NINE IN BETTING
3.45P.M. SELECTION TORONADO BEATEN SHT HEAD 5/14.25P.M. AND 5.35P.M. DISCOUNTED 2YR OLD RACES ALL DISCOUNTED 5P.M. NO SELECTION FITS CRITERIA…
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