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Form and probability does not mean the favourite will probably win…
Unless the favourite stands a better than 50% chance of winning…
And most favourites do not have a better than 50% chance of winning.Misleading advert.
Value Is EverythingForm and probability does not mean the favourite will probably win…
Unless the favourite stands a better than 50% chance of winning…
And most favourites do not have a better than 50% chance of winning.Misleading advert.
Better than 50% in who’s opinion? Yours or the bookmakers? In any event both are erroneous. Just seen the advert on RUK and certainly a case for the ASA.
Form and probability does not mean the favourite will probably win…
Unless the favourite stands a better than 50% chance of winning…
And most favourites do not have a better than 50% chance of winning.Misleading advert.
Better than 50% in who’s opinion? Yours or the bookmakers?
Doesn’t matter what my opinion is.
Fact is most (ie more than 50% of) favourites go off odds-against. Therefore, even in the bookmaker’s opinion the “probability” is that most favourites will LOSE. Exactly the opposite to what the advert implies when supposedly using an expert in probability to explain “probability and form suggest the favourite will win”. In most cases NO it does not.Value Is EverythingForm can suggest that a fav will win. However probability has got sod all to do with it, if you want to deal in probabilities go and sit at a roulette table. (That’s what they want anyway, right?) One can study form etc until the cows come home and come up with what they perceive to be the probability of each horse winning, but that is still only an opinion.
Not seen said advert by the way, merely commenting in what I see here.
Form can suggest that a fav will win. However probability has got sod all to do with it, if you want to deal in probabilities go and sit at a roulette table. (That’s what they want anyway, right?) One can study form etc until the cows come home and come up with what they perceive to be the probability of each horse winning, but that is still only an opinion.
Not seen said advert by the way, merely commenting in what I see here.
Richard,
Point is this is a bookmaker’s advert and there is someone portrayed as a probability expert on the advert saying “probability and form suggest the favourite will win”. Well, most favourites are priced up by this bookmaker at odds-against. Therefore – by making most favourites odds-against – VC Bet themselves are saying “probability and form suggest the favourite will LOSE”.Yes, any individual’s probability of winning is only an opinion. But this advert focuses on favourites and most favourites LOSE. That’s not an opinion, it’s a fact.
Value Is EverythingI absolutely agree, perhaps I was being a bit unclear (been a long day). If this advert is as described then it has no place anywhere near the public eye. They are confusing fact with opinion. You could argue that the bookie thinks that even a 10/11 shot is more likely to lose than win as there is a discrepancy between their book and the ‘true’ odds.
What I meant was that they could argue form can suggest a fav will win (although, again, that is opinion), the rest is total nonsense.
VC Bet could argue that this bloke is talking about a particular favourite in a particular race, but that’s not how it comes across.
Value Is EverythingIts a particularly insidious advert in my view, the bookies know that the favourites dont win 50% of the time and also know that the average punter will not be putting 70 quid on to win 40. We all know, Of course, this area of the market is one where the bookies would like to maximise turnover and subsequently profits from that area. So what do they do? advise that “its going to win anyway”, so get better odds by GUESSING (sic) how much it will win by, offering super tempting odds of 6/1.
if an aspiring punter was astute enough to recognise that a horse would in all probability win by six lengths surely they would be astute enough to know that 4/7 would be a fantastic price?
I cannot fathom for the life of me how to correctly calculate probability or even form sometimes.
Dreamfield 25/1 to win by 10 lengths or more
For which race Nathan?
25/1 for both Guineas and Derby.Value Is EverythingI think it’s good they offer a range of distance wins
the more betting markets the better, no one has to playGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I think it’s good they offer a range of distance wins
the more betting markets the better, no one has to playYou can’t be serious Nathan, the idea of these sort of markets is to get in as nuch mug money as possible while not offerring anywhere the true odds. They offer peanuts, if anything to anyone with the semblance of intelligence on normal bets.
Both examples on here from Gingertipster & Nathan show exactly why bookmakers adverts should be banned till after 9.00pm but why Gingertipster should be bring precentages into it is a mystery. Is he seriously suggesting a horse with a 51% chance will probably win while one with a 49% chance probably wont?
The worst thing British horse racing ever did was getting associated with bookmakers and being dependent on them for an income.
Someone on the other thread suggests the jargon involved with the sport could be offputting but I would suggest being legally mugged by bookmakers and hit in the pocket is far more offputting.
Serious yes, I put up the extreme 10 lengths as it was the highest distance on offer
but if someone thought the 2/5 on Dreamfield was a good price, they may have thought some of the other margin of victory was also good. At least they have the option. Bet365 have 100’s of markets on the football in-play market, a pain at times if you are looking for one hidden miles down the page. I agree a lot of it is tosh but it could be someone elses treasure. The bloke who bets on the golf in the Racing post was restricted from the man of the match markets because he had an edge.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I think it’s good they offer a range of distance wins
the more betting markets the better, no one has to playYou can’t be serious Nathan, the idea of these sort of markets is to get in as nuch mug money as possible while not offerring anywhere the true odds. They offer peanuts, if anything to anyone with the semblance of intelligence on normal bets.
Both examples on here from Gingertipster & Nathan show exactly why bookmakers adverts should be banned till after 9.00pm but why Gingertipster should be bring precentages into it is a mystery. Is he seriously suggesting a horse with a 51% chance will probably win while one with a 49% chance probably wont?
The worst thing British horse racing ever did was getting associated with bookmakers and being dependent on them for an income.
Someone on the other thread suggests the jargon involved with the sport could be offputting but I would suggest being legally mugged by bookmakers and hit in the pocket is far more offputting.
You don’t understand the point about percentages Yeats.
The advert said “the probability is…” I brought percentages in to it because if “the probability is” something, then it must have a better than 50% chance of doing that “something” – otherwise the probability is actually it will not do that particular something.
If something has a less than 50% chance of happening, then the probability is it will not happen.
ie In this case the “Probability Professor” in the VC Bet advert says “probability and form suggest the favourite will WIN”. That is a lie, most favourites lose therefore the probability is the favourite will LOSE.
Value Is EverythingSo to be clear Gingertipster if you consider a horse has a 51% chance of winning and you back it, you think it will probably win but if you consider a horse has a 49% chance of winning and you back it you think it probably wont win?
Regarding the Prof and his advert he does have Minding 4/7 on his board.
Nevertheless I think the advert is well worth being looked at by the ASA, as it’s your baby do you want to report it?
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