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Interested in how TRFers see this
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be a cakewalk for TWIST MAGIC if he is to confirm his credentials for the major prizes ahead.
If the spotlighters assessment is correct then a return on investment of about 20p in pound is in the offing
Will you be investing ???
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Not at all!
Though he could hardly be found an easier opportunity, and track and ground should be ideal, it is worth noting that he was also entered in a hurdle later in the week, so his stable obviously view either as a prep race.
Good race to watch though, for this time of the week.Can’t argue with Jonathan Neesom’s verdict, but no, this is a race I’d be happier watching than playing or laying on.
High Tech Made would be my only bet of any particular substance on that card, not having had the time to study anything other than these two races in any detail at all (and having put up HTM as a next-time winner in an article a couple of weeks ago).
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Jeremy
I agree with JN’s verdict and thought it would be interesting to see if TRF massive thought a 20p return, a good investment or not
I’m in the poor investment camp EW .. I’m not adverse to odds on but not on one horse.
It’s a bit short for me. Somebody has £20 on him at 1.43 which isn’t bad as 2/5 shots go!
I agree with JN’s verdict and thought it would be interesting to see if TRF massive thought a 20p return, a good investment or not
Oh sure, I got that. In direct answer to the point – no, never! I’ve tipped enough odds-on shots in a professional (!!!) capacity but wouldn’t put any of my own money on one, I don’t think – I don’t have the means to lump on the sorts of figures that would make such an exercise worthwhile.
Looked like the early dawdle on a sharp track did for High Tech Made, who was never in contention. Back to God’s own Towcester with you, son!
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Dave
Don’t matter if you have only £1, £10, £100 etc to invest. It don’t even matter if your investment is on a single horse or multiple horses in the same event
Identifying good opportunities in which to invest is what the Great Game is about
This imo is one of those good opportunities, but like all investments it carries risk and some, like the posters above will think the risk is to high and wait for other good investment opportunities
Well investment opportunities are about weighing up risk vs reward and in this case, the risk outweighs the potential rewards, no matter what the stakes are.
I am aware that blind-backing very long odds-on favourites is actually profitable in the long run but it’s just not for me.
I agree with JN’s verdict and thought it would be interesting to see if TRF massive thought a 20p return, a good investment or not
I don’t have the means to lump on the sorts of figures that would make such an exercise worthwhile.
gc
Weigh up the risk and the return and invest
Don’t let your means put you off, you will get the same return on each pound you invest as Harry Findley
Well investment opportunities are about weighing up risk vs reward and in this case, the risk outweighs the potential rewards, no matter what the stakes are.
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David
I am aware that blind-backing very long odds-on favourites is actually profitable in the long run but it’s just not for me.
Likewise, for all that I am far from dismissive of the points ew has made.
Even with my paltry (usual) couple of quid on the nose a 20p ROI is still 20p more than nowt – "a ROI by any other name would smell just as sweet", if you will. However, it never quite feels like as much of an achievement as spotting the double-digit lurker that nobody else has.
You can put that down to being encouraged to tip to ensure the highest level stakes profit in certain of my professional engagements to date; you could equally put it down to my betting escapades for the first decade of my interest in racing being limited to the big fields and big prices of the Grand National; or you could simply put it down to me being a tight-a*rse and greedy sod simultaneously.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I’m sure everyone knows this but Mr Quasimodo is out of Dubacilla and is therefore closely related to dear old Just So….
Don’t matter if you have only £1, £10, £100 etc to invest. It don’t even matter if your investment is on a single horse or multiple horses in the same event
I suppose it’s how you think about risk, it’s probably just my way of thinking that would stop me.
If you identify a 9-4 poke as being a evens poke, the risk of losing your investment is 50%. The risk on losing the investment on Twist Magic was about 10%
The return is higher in the former, but which in your opinions is the better investment??
I’m sure everyone knows this but Mr Quasimodo is out of Dubacilla and is therefore closely related to dear old Just So….
Indeed I did. She’s yet to produce the top-drawer stayers – or even the needs seven-miles plodders – one might have expected, but there’s time enough yet.
I must say I hadn’t expected to see Mr Q tried over a sharp 2m again, other than perhaps as a seasonal sharpener or for the purposes of pot-hunting in a tiny field (either of which might have been applicable here).
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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