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Has any or all of you considered the actual financial and numerical outcomes of RULE 4’s?
For example
4 runner race
Ev
2/1
4/1
9/1 which is betting to 113% generous I know but for this example it will do
Even money shot non runner Rule 4 50pNew prices after rule 4
1/2
6/4
4/1 which becomes a percentage of 126%All this shows is the Rule 4 can and does work both ways and don’t forget you have had to refund all stakes on the original fav which in real life is the largest part of your takings on the race!!
Like anything else in this life it depends which way you look at it!!
- Total Posts 17716
Raymo
So your theoretical bookmakers would have bet to double the overround on 3 runners than they would on 4?
Taking the real figures from the actual race, Twist Magic was 0/30 at the off in a book with a 23% margin – true odds equal 4.059/1, which allows the books a small profit on a 20p deduction. However, at 7/2 or 4/1 (same R4) the profit would have been greater, and at 3/1 (R4 25p), it would again have been greater. The layers aren’t ambivalent about R4’s, like everything else, they’re geared to their benefit,None of those vociferous in defence of current practice with RR’s have yet explained why or when they were they were all deemed starters. Until someone produces evidence to the contrary, I’ll remain convinced its a phenomenon that’s changed since it affected racing’s income.
No new ‘rules’, just another way to soak the punter!I backed Twist Magic and accept it was one of those things, just as falling at the first or the last fence is (and I have had plenty that have done that).
Of course I’d like a run for my money, but as I’m sure many have said, starting is all part of the game and if a horse down tools at the start, or mid race, it’s the same thing. I know a lot of bookies returned stakes on King Johns Castle in the National, but at the odds he was, and the profile of the race, it was a P.R. exercise, rather than them wanting to play fair.I won’t be backing Twist Magic again unless Ruby Walsh is on board anyway
Chase record with Walsh on board: 1F1-121-41-11
Chase record without Walsh on board: 2-16-F6F-3PR
twist magic entered on saturday, anyone know if tataniano is a definite runner aswell?
Why did Nicholls give useless Sam Thomas the ride on Twist Magic when McCoy was available? Also shows how much we miss Ruby Walsh
Err what?
Surely Twist Magic was feeling the effects of a long season and the very long trip to and from Ireland earlier in the week.
He seemed over-the-top today – nothing to do with Sam Thomas in my opinion.
… that the horse has had enough…
Not my words but Sean Boyce earlier in this thread. You can bet your bottom dollar that Sean’s money was not on Twist Magic to win today.
Even if Twist Magic was feeling the effects of a long season, shouldn’t be reluctant at the start, like he’s been the last twice. Glad he didn’t win. Realise the starter did his best, no citicism of him; but Twist Magic got an unfair advantage with a running start. Had there not been a confirmed front-runner (Fix The Ribb), would’ve got a soft lead. As it was, one confirmed front runner caught at the back seemed to down tools.
Twist Magic travelled best of all untill 3 out. Not for the first time found little under presure (first time at Sandown). Still had ears pricked on the run-in which suggests a little left in the tank.
Possibly being fresh will make a difference next time we see him; but temperament is getting worse. Got easy leads for his two wins this term, would’ve been asked a bigger question had Petit Robin not jumped violently left at Ascot.Value Is EverythingLooking at the Celebration Chase on Saturday at Sandown,i see
Twist Magic
is entered and by all accounts will run,there will be plenty 6/4 before the off,if he takes off and jumps the first fence in front he goes 4/6 and will win unchallenged,the skill will be hitting the play button at the right moment!Interesting for those that like a challenge!
Being one of those that loves a challenge,i couldn"t resist the idea of playing in the above race! There was plenty of 2/1 available as the field circled down at the start,trouble was Twisty was acting the goat,i had £25 set up to play but because he was showing signs of not bothering i sat and waited for him being lead in and then hit play just as he got a flyer,No joy he"s gone 7/4 before the rest of the field have passed the start line,i try again,for the 7/4,No joy,he"s jumped the first and gone 4/5 now and duly gets cut as the race progresses,by the time he jumps 3 out he"s 1/2,but before you can see Sam shake the reigns he"s out to 6/4 again and from that point on drifts further and further.One thing is for sure,when a jockey shakes the reigns with Twisty,you know its game over! Betting in running never worked for me today,thats for sure!The clever guys would have pre-set 1/2 and layed him in anticipation of yet another "i cant be bothered today" run from the "enigmatic" Twist Magic!
Twist Magic’s running start was the funniest thing I saw all season. It’s a shame the horse didn’t plant himself, that guy would’ve ended up on his backside.
Why did Nicholls give useless Sam Thomas the ride on Twist Magic when McCoy was available?
That’s a touch harsh – let’s not forget that Thomas has won the Gold Cup.
I’ve become really rather fond of Twist Magic, in spite of – or maybe because of – his attitude. I really do hope he comes back next season fresh, alert, and ready to run the sort of great race we all know he’s capable of.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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