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Not a race I was likely to get involved in, but I note that
Sirvino
was top-rated by Topspeed and Racing Post Ratings. Without looking any further than that its chance on best form was clear and in the public domain.
Rob
Please tell us Woolfie, why you believe each of them is a "shock" winner?
You asked me to give examples, you started to offer reasons for their improvement and now you ask me to relate their previous poor performances to contrast with their winning performance. Put simply, their previous performances offer no clue as to their true ability hence they are ”shock” winners.
I don’t believe the figures relating to expectations vis a vis odds are relevant, there is plenty of room for skulduggery within the loose generality of the numbers offered.
I don’t believe the figures relating to expectations vis a vis odds are relevant
And with that…
I’m out!!
Mike
Put simply, their previous performances offer no clue as to their true ability hence they are ”shock” winners.
As I pointed out a couple of posts back, Sirvion was toprated on both Topspeed and RPR. What further proof do you require that previous performance offers a clue to their chance?
I don’t believe the figures relating to expectations vis a vis odds are relevant,
Someone take that gun off the man! He’s fast running out of feet!
We’ve been waiting for it and that is clincher, you clearly know b***** all about how the betting market works.
Rob
Put simply, their previous performances offer no clue as to their true ability hence they are ”shock” winners.
As I pointed out a couple of posts back, Sirvion was toprated on both Topspeed and RPR. What further proof do you require that previous performance offers a clue to their chance?
I don’t believe the figures relating to expectations vis a vis odds are relevant,
Someone take that gun off the man! He’s fast running out of feet!
We’ve been waiting for it and that is clincher, you clearly know b***** all about how the betting market works.
Rob
There is plenty of room for skulduggery within the general picture offered by those figures, it cannot be completely accurate and cannot take account of every race held in the UK.
It could be out by a significant percentage.I would have thought it obvious.
Put simply, their previous performances offer no clue as to their true ability hence they are ”shock” winners.
As I pointed out a couple of posts back, Sirvion was toprated on both Topspeed and RPR. What further proof do you require that previous performance offers a clue to their chance?
I don’t believe the figures relating to expectations vis a vis odds are relevant,
Someone take that gun off the man! He’s fast running out of feet!
We’ve been waiting for it and that is clincher, you clearly know b***** all about how the betting market works.
Rob
There is plenty of room for skulduggery within the general picture offered by those figures, it cannot be completely accurate and cannot take account of every race held in the UK.
It could be out by a significant percentage.I would have thought it obvious.
BORED NOW!!!
SHL
If we had a poll on here that asked how many of us thought a horse had an 18% chance of winning a race so thats why we backed it, the result would be 99% of us would say,’It never enters my head’.
1. Can I please vote yes as I do bet on percentage chance.
2. If it’s true 99% don’t do this then that suits me fine, and I suspect your figure is not far off the mark! Those that win do so by working out an edge by whatever means, and that’s to their credit, while those that don’t just put some money into the pot for the smarter ones to have a chance of winning.
1. Another yes vote here. Anyone who considers whether the odds available justify a bet is making a percentage call. This can be a tangible call if one actually compiles a tissue or an intangible call if one’s little grey cells whir ‘too long’ or ‘too short’
2. And with those succinct wise words from Rob I too will head for the Woolf-free hills
will the circle be unbroken?
Please tell us Woolfie, why you believe each of them is a "shock" winner?
You asked me to give examples, you started to offer reasons for their improvement and now you ask me to relate their previous poor performances to contrast with their winning performance. Put simply, their previous performances offer no clue as to their true ability hence they are ”shock” winners.
I don’t believe the figures relating to expectations vis a vis odds are relevant, there is plenty of room for skulduggery within the loose generality of the numbers offered.
I believe it was primarily Rob that asked for "
examples
" Wolfie. Yes, I "started" to give detailed "
reasons
" for their "
improvement
"/return to form. Something that took me a deal of time. Yet you can’t go through each one of YOUR examples, showing us why YOU believe skulduggery is involved. But don’t bother now.
Suspected you have little/no knowledge of how a betting market works and how odds strike rates are relevent, and now you’ve confirmed it. This goes to the heart of the arguement – so there is no point in continuing.
I too am out.
Value Is EverythingYou are stout defenders of racing’s integrity, the sport does not deserve you. I understand why your explanations of shock results have dried up, the task was becoming insurmountable. A daily taxing of the brain, better to carry on with heads firmly buried in the sand.
Over and out.
Woolfie,I’m surprised you haven’t mentioned the vast improvement
Nargys
showed today as I’d love to hear Gingers excuses for the horses previous dismal efforts!
Woolfie,I’m surprised you haven’t mentioned the vast improvement
Nargys
showed today as I’d love to hear Gingers excuses for the horses previous dismal efforts!
It certainly needs some explaining, I marvel at their audacity.
Everybodys bet isn’t a ‘Value’ bet.There are times we purchase something because we want to treat ourselves and ‘Value’ isn’t even considered.I could buy a cheap Black and decker drill for £40,I could buy a Makita drill for £150 or I could buy the best De-Walt drill for £200,every drill does what it says on the tin but the De-walt does it so much easier.The ‘Value’ drill is the Makita then! A tin of Lidl Beans are cheap and nasty,Sainsburys home brand are more expensive but taste better but Heinz are different class again and obviously you pay more for such luxury,the ‘value’ beans are the Sainsburys ones but I’ll stick to Heinz thanks,the same can be said for Horseracing,the Favs an even money chance the 2nd favs 4/1 and the 3rd favs 6/1,there’s no value in the even Money shot but he’s fav for a reason and thats because he’s the Class horse in the race.You ‘Value’ seekers wont touch the good thing because its just like going to the Ritz for afternoon tea and paying £50 per head,you cant justify the expense so you settle for 2nd best and search for a Value lunch in M+S.’Value’ on the High St is about being thrifty,you go out with £100 to spend and you want to get your monies worth and you come back with at least something,’Value’ seekers in horseracing go out with £100 and instead of sticking it on an Even money shot and coming back with something you stick it on a horse at bigger odds because you think its bigger value and come back with nothing because the Even money shot wins!
Where’s the ‘Value’ in a big priced Loser??? I see Mike has written a very similar post but…
You have a strange idea of "value" Gord, it explains a lot of your misconceptions.
If someone does not like Lidl beans then they are not "value". It’s pointless buying something you don’t want to eat, it’s just throwing money away.
Shoppers should not be fooled in to thinking of "value" as the cheapest product.
Punters need to invest more on an Even Money shot to get back the same amount as a 10/1 shot. But the risk is nowhere near the same. Sometimes the amount of risk and potential return makes the Evens a better buy than a 10/1 shot, and sometimes the 10/1 is a better buy than Evens.
Before handing over the cash a punter doesnot
know
if the Evens, 2/1, 7/1 or 10/1 shot will be the best investment (win). So the
"what’s the value in a big priced loser"
? question does not come in to it. He just needs to evaluate/ask which "
risk
" is worth the
potential return
? And knowing the top price 10/1 shot needs to have a better than 9% chance of winning for me to believe it "value" helps me answer the latter question.
Woolfie,I’m surprised you haven’t mentioned the vast improvement
Nargys
showed today as I’d love to hear Gingers excuses for the horses previous dismal efforts!
Three words sum Nargys up Gord…
She’s a dog!
A bloody good one at her best, but so inconsistent. Only relenting to put it all in now and again. Surprised Timeform haven’t rated Nargys with a squiggle before now.
Having backed the second at big prices just my luck she decides today to put it all in. My other main bet was third.
See Gord, there is such a thing as "luck" in any individual race.
Value Is EverythingI see Mike has written a very similar post but…
You have a strange idea of "value" Gord, it explains a lot of your misconceptions.
I have always said "value"
in any particular race
is indeed "an individuals opinion". One bet proves nothing anyway. It does not matter if one particular bet wins or loses, as long as the punter wins over all. It is only after a considerable amount of time a punter can see whether he/she has achieved "value". Therefore, to get "value" over all "is everything".
Value Is EverythingJust because a bet is a winning one does not make it "value" Gord.
Take a throw of a normal dice, the known fair odds are 5/1.
If I were to offer you odds:Throw a 1 = 2/1
2 = 3/1
3 = 4/1
4 = 5/1
5 = 6/1
6 = 7/1If you decided to bet on the 1 @ 2/1 and the 1 came up, you’d win! Did that in "hindsight prove that she (a 1 throw) was actually superb value at the price"?
Value Is EverythingIf someone does not like Lidl beans then they are not "value". It’s pointless buying something you don’t want to eat, it’s just throwing money away.
If I did not have "multiple bets" I would not have backed Auroras Encore @ 119/1, Declaration Of War 16/1, Aquilonius 43/1 etc etc. My multiple bets pay off over time Gordie Boy, unlike your each way ante-post bets. Despite me "throw(ing) money away" on my multiple bets – my ROI is considerably better than yours.Value Is Everything
Where’s the ‘Value’ in a big priced Loser??? 
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