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I was impressed as well. Looked uncomplicated, travelled well and produced a good fast jump at the last just when it was needed.
I do not bet on juvenile hurdles very much but have taken the 4/1 with Ladbrokes.
7lb gender allowance in NH is too much – been saying it for years.
It’s 3lb on the Flat and the further they race, especially in mud, the more of a stopper weight is.
But who am I to complain?
Lump on those decent fillies and mares getting the seven – they’d have to be up against “The Hill” to get beat at those weights!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Feel like a Constition Hill/Facile Vega/Lossiemoth treble is in order, can even chuck Jet Powered in there as a saver treble too and wouldn’t begrudge anyone chucking Jonbon in that bet as well.
Can’t have Facile Vega at current odds.
What’s it beat over timber so far?
And was that race it won yesterday a “no whips” contest?
Didn’t see one raised the entire race on anything.
Form isn’t worth an empty biscuit tin – one of the saddest sights on Earth, according to Chezza.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The 7lb allowance is a gift for an above average mare – and this one looks well above average. If she produces that sort of performance at Cheltenham, how many geldings will be able to give her 7lbs and a beating?
My only query would be how she’d perform if it’s quicker ground at Cheltenham.
It was Soft today and they positively water the word “Good” out of going descriptions at Auteuil.
But that aside, she looks another who could take advantage of that 7lb weapon.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Can’t have Facile Vega at current odds.
What’s it beat over timber so far?”
I know mate, and it does seem offensively short for the Supreme. But the way I see it is the game has changed, the vast majority of the best horses are trained by Mullins, Elliot and Henderson, would be amazed to see what % of the Graded races those 3 have won at Cheltenham over the last 5 years.
The way I see it is Mullins has won 5 of the last 10 supremes (and 2 of the last 4), so going from that small, but recent sample-size it could be argued that he has a 50% chance of training the winner. When you consider the fact that Facile Vega won the way he did, won so impressively on the flat a number of times last year on a variety of goings (including showing he can handle Cheltenham) and given the fact that he is most likely the Mullins first string for this race – and was talked highly of at the start of last season. I think when you consider all of these aspects I can’t blame the bookies for pricing him up at around evens after that hurdles debut. He looked reminiscent of the likes of Douvan and Vautour on their hurdles debuts if not maybe even more impressive, and sure Mullins has had similar types that haven’t gone on to win the Supreme like Min, but I just feel that with how effortlessly Facile Vega won the other day and considering all of the points above, I think around evens is probably about right – despite how crazy that price would have looked 5 to 10 years ago.
The Irish seem to be dominating the Triumph now with the exception of the odd Henderson hot pot, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if in 5 years time a horse similar to Lossiemouth was priced up at evens this time of year after winning its first hurdles start.
It’s all about catching the trends before everyone else! Though that would also contradict what I said above as it’d be hard to argue that Facile Vega is good value. Give me £100 and I’d much rather have it on Lossiemouth. I’d probably be equally as confident about either of them winning but one of them is 3/1 the other is evens.
“But the way I see it is the game has changed, the vast majority of the best horses are trained by Mullins, Elliot and Henderson, would be amazed to see what % of the Graded races those 3 have won at Cheltenham over the last 5 years.”
Yup
I rarely if ever back a horse antepost not trained by one of those 3
Willie and nicky look to have very strong hands this year. Wel nicky does for day 1 anyway with jet powered, jonbon, the mighty hill and Marie’s rock/epatante
The question is whether Willie has a better one than Lossiemouth, Gordon doesn’t seem to have a fil dor or pied piper atm.
Really interesting point from Ben and I’m not going to dispute it.
Anyone who thinks these ante-post quotes are too short can always go to Betfair Exchange and lay slightly bigger if they want to.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"7/2 Lossiemouth, thought I’d join the party
I’m expecting Nusret to beat Scriptwriter on Saturday and the 20’s are appealing the thing that I’m not sure about is that the owner also has Zarak the Brave. If Lossiemouth continues to impress it could well be that Zarak the Brave doesn’t come here and that will leave the door open for Nusret. 20’s currently but that could shorten after Saturday
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I think it was a pretty strong field she beat, Nathan, and I’m not buying the idea they’ve all got better ones at home getting ready to run.
I’d be more worried about the ground in March than the opposition – Good ground would be a complete unknown for her.
Of course, she might be even better on it….but probably not.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Very fair point Ian, i do wonder with global warming if Cheltenham runs the same risk we have seen with Ascots Champions Day – with the big races at the end of the year being run on ground totally different than what we see the throughout rest of the season, making it trickier for punters.
Festival form is worth looking at because they always run a decent gallop 99 times out of 100 whereas I find the start of the season they go more steady
That doesn’t help for this raceBlackbeard to conquer the World
Good win by Blood Destiny in the opening race at Cork. I doubt he is at the top of the Mullins pecking order but could be one for the juvenile handicap.
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