Trials for Guineas/Derby/Oaks

[joebusst]

sorry im a bit of a newcomer, and i was wondering which races coming up are good indicators for the classics, like which races the prospects may run in etc.

[davidbrady]

Here is the LTO race of each of the last 10 winners of each race:

2000 Guineas<br>7 winners were having their first run of the season<br>2 winners ran in the Craven Stakes LTO<br>1 winner ran in the Irish 2000 Guineas Trial

1000 Guineas<br>5 x Debuts<br>3 x Fred Darling Stakes<br>1 x Nell Gwyn Stakes<br>1 x Irish 1000 Guineas Trial

Oaks<br>2 x Musidora Stakes<br>2 x 1000 Guineas<br>2 x Irish 1000 Guineas<br>1 x Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial<br>1 x Pretty Polly Stakes<br>1 x Lingfield Oaks Trial

Derby<br>3 x Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (all won)<br>3 x Dante Stakes (all won)<br>2 x Dee Stakes (all won)<br>1 x Lingfield Derby Trial (won)<br>1 x 2000 Guineas (2nd)

I would argue that all of the above is fairly meaningless without further in-depth analysis except for the Derby stats. I would be very reluctant to back a horse in the Derby who hadn’t won LTO unless they had an excellent excuse.<br>

(Edited by davidbrady at 10:04 pm on April 15, 2007)

[cormack15]

The profile of Guineas winners has changed markedly over the last twenty years with seasonal debutants enjoying unprecedented success in recent years. <br>I put this down to improvements in training methods and veterinary science, all of which allow the top trainers to guage their horses fitness without subjecting them to a relatively pointless exercise in a trial.

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