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Perhaps a harsh one, but I’m firmly off the Roger Varian band-wagon. He had Postponed given to him as a ready-made champion, and otherwise, the only thing he seems to do is prep horses for handicaps or lower grade pattern contests after a long break.
Saeed Bin Suroor seems fairly put in his place by Charlie Appleby.
Hugo Palmer doesn’t seem to be regarded as the bright young thing he once was.
I’m also not mad about Charles Hills. Battaash should be the eminent 5f horse on the planet, but despite being the ultimate professional now he looks a Group 2 horse at best. Equilateral also looked a monster early last season but has completely gone off the rails.
I’m probably expecting way too much, mind.
That was when his wife told Sheikh Mohammed that Mark of Esteem picked up a bad injury and would have to miss the 1996 2,000 Guineas. He was switched to SBS and won the race first time out.
Made the comment about Sir Henry to illustrate a downturn can happen to anyone and does not necessarily mean they aren’t as good as they were, Ex-Ruby.
Value Is EverythingRoger Varian has good seasons and bad. As well as Postponed has had a top class Group 1 winning two year old who went on to be second in the Derby before winning the final classic. imo Very capable trainer, but suffers from having too many horses in his stables, difficult to keep clear of viruses.
Bit hard on Charlie Hills, Degaussed! At the moment can lay serious claim to being the best sprint trainer in the country… and possibly the best sprint trainer ever. Has had two of the absolute top sprinters we’ve seen in recent times/ever; Muhaarar and Battaash. Latter had an operation before last season – so that may well have had something to do with a somewhat disappointing 2018. But is hardly a “Group 2 sprinter”. Putting up Timeform’s best sprint performance of both 2017 and 2018. Just that – it’s the nature of many on edge sprinters – temperament sometimes gets the better of Battaash. Even when it does, he’s so good it’s still enough to place in Group 1’s. Loves Goodwood’s fast 5, hates York’s openness and the hullaballoo and/or stiff course of Royal Ascot is against his blistering speed. If only there was 4f racing.
Value Is EverythingI’ll pop this in here as I think it’s related :
Why do trainers change the running / riding orders for a horse whose victories have come under certain conditions ?
e.g Anemoi; three wins when ridden prominently or setting the pace and yet held the last two times Sheehan has ridden him.
Why do trainers continue to book jockeys who don’t ride winners for them ?Genuinely interested to know if there’s a reasonable answer other than the obvious
Sheehan is often great riding from the front IMO. I’d presume the jockey is riding to instruction? If he wasn’t he wouldn’t be booked?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Not the best of examples, Mark.
Anemoi was held up for his win in a class 3 Novice on 3rd November.
Dropped in class to a Class 4 and made all to win on 1st Dec. Howeever, didn’t look entirely comfortable leading, appearing to want others to join him.
Then upped considerably in class to a Listed Novice as well as both trip and going placing more emphasis on stamina than previously… And against a couple who were more front/prominent runners (Darlac and Rocco) than Anemoi – connections probably chose rightly to hold the horse up in order to make sure he settled. Considering the difference in class Anemoi didn’t run at all badly in 3rd, having come through to dispute the lead 3 out before weakening. Maybe they thought he didn’t stay?
Dropping back to 2m and – again held up – ran a good race when third in a Class 2 Handicap in a bigger (14 runner) field. Although he didn’t “win” it was probably a better performance than any of his wins. ie Connections probably believe his best run has actually been when held up.
So why shouldn’t he again be held up today?
Anemoi had undergone wind surgery prior to today’s race and maybe that was more significant than tactics in him finishing 13th of 14.Value Is EverythingRoyal Marine – made all to beat Turgenev at Doncaster, ridden prominently to win at Longchamps…
Held up on the rail today and never given the remotest chance of winning, similar to the other occasion when ridden by Soumillon – a jockey with a 6% strike rate in Britain and without a winner for Suroor
It either stinks or it’s appalling race management.
Didn’t look great Mark, but what i would say is, he wasn’t the fastest out of the stalls and probably lost his chance of taking the lead..Could’ve been keen as he didn’t get to lead. I thought when Skardu angled whilst at the back, Soumillon should’ve followed suit, but instead waited until about 1.5Fs out and when he moved him out Skardu comes running by him and it’s all over.
Soumillon being a jockey predominantly riding in France probably doesn’t help as they love their preps.
Whether he’s classy enough i’m not sure, but i thought he ran a nice prep for the Guineas?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Alan King’s horses are running poorly. Dingo Dollar was beat after 5 fences. Yes I know he had a winner later on on the flat but overall something is wrong. Virus maybe? Who knows. Be interesting what happens with his horse in the first tomorrow at Cheltenham but on the basis that there is something wrong I am on the Webber horse as it looks a 2 horse race.
Are they? Fidux third at 25/1 yesterday, Beringer ran a cracker in the Lincoln the other week and he’s had various winners also including a big handicap with Chatez.
He’s just a classic in and out trainer that’s hard to judge.Tom George on the other hand is a trainer that’s been badly out of form all season. Not had a winner in the last few weeks and RTF of 26%, not good.
Royal Marine – made all to beat Turgenev at Doncaster, ridden prominently to win at Longchamps…
Held up on the rail today and never given the remotest chance of winning, similar to the other occasion when ridden by Soumillon – a jockey with a 6% strike rate in Britain and without a winner for Suroor
It either stinks or it’s appalling race management.
Yes, Royal Marine has been victorious when ridden prominently, Mark; and you’re right that in that race his best chance was by racing prominently. However, the Craven is a trial for the Guineas.
This 2000 Guineas is likely to be a much bigger field than Craven – particularly open race if Too Darn Hot is not in the field. So with a far bigger field there’s more likely to be more pressure on the prominent runners to go faster (bigger the field the more likely pace/sectionals will disadvantage prominent runners… And added to that – Coolmore pacemakers can often ensure prominent runners go very (too) quick.
So in an ideal world connections would like their main Guineas hopes to at least be able to relax… And they knew Royal Marine isn’t the easiest in that respect. With that type of horse – if they have to be held up at all – best chance of getting them settled is by getting as many horses in front of him as possible (theory being there’s nowhere else to go, but it depends on the horse/doesn’t always work). Therefore, it would imo be silly to try those tactics for the first time in the big race itself. Now! Connections know they’re going to struggle getting Royal Marine settled in behind, so suspect they’ll bite the bullet, race prominently and just hope there’s not too many taking him on. tbh Was surprised they didn’t try a hood which can help their nerves.
Value Is EverythingGinge i think i read they will be applying a hood for the 2000G!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack – there can be different interpretations of the riding tactics but then you consider the jockey / trainer stats and wonder why Soumillon ? Why book him for the ride ?
Maybe there’s a positive trend for Suroor horses ridden by Soumillon on their previous start
“Connections know they’re going to struggle getting Royal Marine settled in behind, so suspect they’ll bite the bullet, race prominently and just hope there’s not too many taking him on. tbh Was surprised they didn’t try a hood which can help their nerves.”
Might settle their nerves, Mark, but they wouldn’t see much of the race. Would look very odd in the OT stand too.
:)
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