- This topic has 32 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
As difficult to resolve as ever and will probably wait until the day … don’t like horses with suspect stamina for this race and always like to back something guaranteed to stay that tough last furlong … not sure how he’ll cope with the straight nine but have had an eye on Sandor ever since his unlucky in running 5th in the John Smiths at York behind Wigmore Hall in July … three excellent runs since then over 10 and 12 furlongs including when 3rd to Forte Dei Marmi at Sandown when making a huge amount of ground up from the home turn to lead a furlong out only to be run out of it close home … might just get done for toe when it all quickens up but can see him staying on late and looks decent ew value at the likely odds … currently 33/1 but wouldn’t rule out being even longer on the day.
- Total Posts 17716
Absinthe
(10/1),
Taqleed
(16/1) and
Pires
(16/1) make plenty of appeal and will likely remain my only interests in the race.
Slight preference is for the former with Circumvent likely to ensure a thorough test.
History tells us that you want a middle – to – high drawn (higher than 11), three or four year old animal, rated less than a hundred and who has won at both 1m AND 1m 2f. Of course, you get boilovers in this – Spanish Don springs to mind at 100/1 – but you won’t go too far wrong following that simple filter.
Of course, we don’t know the draw yet, so this can change, but a nicely fitted horse is
Elliptical
for Gerard Butler who has engaged the services of Belgian maestro Christophe Soumillon to do the steering.
Has run in some key races – the old Courage Handicap at Newbury behind a Cumani gamble, and the 1m 2f handicap on Guineas day, behind Tartan Gigha and in front of the mightily improved Riggins. The condition of the Rowley mile surface will be immaterial to this horse and given the ammunition, Butler is a top twenty trainer of handicappers who tends to book the best when his horses are in prime condition.
Fifth in that 1m 2f handicap race is Burrough Hill Lad’s fancy
Sandor
who also ran (unlucky)in another key race the John Smiths/Magnet cup at York. I’d fancy this one big time at a massive price if it weren’t for the ground – he seems to have avoided soft so far. Will get every yard of the trip though and will relish the frenetic pace.
Love to see Taamer run for Tregoning – Derby favourite in 2009 for some weeks, but I doubt the colt will run. My old favourite heartbreaker Tartan Gigha needs it like the M1 so the random Johnston pick – and recent history tells us that you DO need a random Johnston pick in any handicap over £10,000 nowadays – would be Greyfriars Chorista.
Best of luck.
- Total Posts 17716
Taqleed
– The idea of backing an unexposed J.Gosden 3yo in this is a sound one. Nationalism has had all the support & that may prove to be justified…but Taqleed has a very similar profile, is probably even less exposed, & is a few lbs lower in the ratings. Has had a prep on this course over 10f as well. Think I’d rather take a chance with him at 20/1, than the favourite at 4/1.
Thought he was a doubtful runner earlier this week, as this trip would be an absolute minimum and JG already had the favourite in the race. However, the going will make this a severe test, and it’s encouraging that he’s been allowed to take his chance.
Missed all the fancy prices, but he’s still available at 12’s, and may well be much shorter come 3.40 tomorrow.Given today’s weather (I’m assuming it’s the same everywhere) it’s interesting to note that there are very few in the field with winning form on genuinely soft ground … fancied pair Nationalism and Absinthe both won on the soft last time, both lightly raced and could, of course, be anything … Elliptical’s trainer has already stated that his horse is much better with give in the ground whilst Tiger Reigns and old Smokey Oakey (shown little for some time now) will also have their preferred surface … tipped Sandor in previous post … ground is an unknown but already out to 40’s and will still have a few quid ew on the morning of the race.
One complete outsider lurking at the bottom of the handicap with a featherweight (7-13 with Harry Bentley’s claim) who absolutely revels in soft conditions is Northern Fling … running over two furlongs further than he’s ever been asked to before, it’s unlikely he’ll get home as I’d expect the winner to be something that potentially gets further than the 9 furlongs (or may do in time) … however, couple of quid ew wouldn’t go amiss … just in case.
3 against the field ……
Elliptical 16/1 Win
Sandor 40/1 ew (Now 50’s with Corals)
Northern Fling 100/1 ew (Now 150’s with Corals)Its softish but its not a bog. Its not a mudlarks dream but anything that wants decent ground will suffer
You found yourself some serious value there Colin! Looking at the prices now I’d say your pretty chuffed
Never been a fan of handicaps but I’d kick myself if Taameer won having backed him as a 2yo for the Derby. Ran a decent race LTO after having been off the track for a couple of years. 100/1’s silly.
- Total Posts 17716
Well that’s a crazy idea Zark but not as crazy as mines. I had never heard of the Czech drink Abasinthe until watching amovie about a week ago. Watched a 2nd movie 2 days ago and the guy gives this chic a glass of Abasinthe and she say something about it sending you crazy.
Then I hear some horse called Abasiynth, named after this drink I presume, is running in the Cambridgeshire.
Never looked at it’s form or any other horse….I couldn’t tell you what else is running just had 20 quid ew because of the coincidence.
Couldn’t have a serious bet in this I’m afaraid.
Elliptical main fancy for me. Won a few quid off him in the past, and put in a really encouraging effort last time.
Since it’s the big Saturday Handicap, got to have a few quid e/w on an outsider too. Torn between Smokey Oakey and Brunston.
Would really like Smokey Oakey, but his last run was a bit of a concern. If not amiss, think he could go well. As for Brunston, it’s more of a hunch, nothing more, but just think he’s got a big race in him.
Good luck all!
Everything going for him except for the fact that yours truly has backed him [along with Credit Swap and Colepeper]. Apologies in advance to all those who have put money on him. I may as well walk into the bookies and throw money at them these days…..
Well done Moe – those drawn low might as well have run backwards with stilletos on for all the chance they had. Nmkt really have to sort that out or Ascot will get ALL their races.
Well done, Moe … I did at least manage a bit ew on Sandor at 50’s … race panned out exactly as I thought for him … came from an awfully long way back and just couldn’t go with them when they initially quickened but was catching them hand over fist at the finish.
Thanks; I have to admit to it being more luck than judgement with a last minute extra bet on the way back from work. If I’d had to stake my lfe on it I would have just backed Taqleed; noticed straight away that Sandor had done well for you. Strange races to watch, really, these flat handicaps, because they all happen so fast, so you don’t really know what’s happening till it’s all over. A much needed confidence boost, however.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.