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Segal is going to make a selection for it in tomorrows paper apparently so I’m going to start looking at it now. Anyone got any ideas?
Absinthe has been cut across the board according to Odds Checker but I couldn’t say if thats any kind of indicator as to Segals selection or not
Hahaha
Absinthe is Segals selection for the race. I flagged the impending selection the night before it went out in the papers and hes saying he’s tipped it at 20/1. I saw it cut into 16/1 the night before so how can it be advised at 20/1? Someones been online smashing the price before its gone to press!
I just took 25/1 about Nationalism as he was crossing the line at Goodwood today. Penalty and a lot of class makes me pretty comfortable for Newmarket.
Screw you Segal!
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I just took 25/1 about Nationalism as he was crossing the line at Goodwood today. Penalty and a lot of class makes me pretty comfortable for Newmarket.
Screw you Segal!
Rather convenient, nulty.
This is very much a ‘day of the race’ job for me.
I just took 25/1 about Nationalism as he was crossing the line at Goodwood today. Penalty and a lot of class makes me pretty comfortable for Newmarket.
Screw you Segal!
Rather convenient, nulty.
This is very much a ‘day of the race’ job for me.
What are you suggesting Armchair? Are you questioning my honesty or referring to my keen alertness to the goings on of the possibility of value in respect of ante post betting?
Perhaps a congratulatory post is more in order
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I’m not suggesting anything, nulty, merely commenting on the convenience of claiming to have backed a particular horse after it’s won despite starting the thread five days earlier.
If you’re ‘last minute value spotting’ then all’s well and good.
I’m not suggesting anything, nulty, merely commenting on the convenience of claiming to have backed a particular horse after it’s won despite starting the thread five days earlier.
If you’re ‘last minute value spotting’ then all’s well and good.
I understand that people on here are seriously cynical and apprehensive to belive the seemingly fanciful claims of other members. On the other hand I’m not posting here as a tipping service, merely recording my own thoughts and actions in regard to the race. It must be more plausable that I of all people would have more interest in the subject of ante post betting in this particular market given that I had started the thread. I did say that I was looking at the market and naturally I dont record my every thought in this thread. I post AFTER I make my bet, not before!
In any respect, I backed Nationalism for 1pt @ 3/1 at Goodwood today and used the profit to back him ante post (1pt ew @ 25/1 Ladbrokes) for this race knowing he would need
at least
a race penalty to be considered. Giving away my own research before I have had a chance to act on it would be ridiculous, don’t you think?
Yes, it was as
convenient
as I could make it.
BTW, this is all light hearted, I’m not upset
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I wouldn’t expect you to record your every thought, nulty, and neither would I claim to be overly cynical (Ken had enough cynicism for half the UK population). I simply tire of reading the same old thing; namely claims that a particular horse has been backed only after it has won. I just don’t see the point.
But before I embark upon a de-construction of the common gambler’s pysche, I’ll issue you with a mere caution; any more of these antics and it’s 100 lines and a letter home to your parents
I’ve taken 16s about Forte Dei Marmi. He won his last race with plenty to spare and a 4lb rise was quite conservative considering he only took the lead in the last 100 yards.
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Forte Dei Marni has been my long term fancy for the race, however on his site, Cumani has stated that he may go to Newbury next weekend and that he wouldnt run in both.
If you can forgive Breakheart his run on rotten ground last time and focus on his run on the July course then he would appeal at 33-1. however they also have Riggins in the same stable.
Will wait until running plans are a bit more clear
I wouldn’t expect you to record your every thought, nulty, and neither would I claim to be overly cynical (Ken had enough cynicism for half the UK population). I simply tire of reading the same old thing; namely claims that a particular horse has been backed only after it has won. I just don’t see the point.
But before I embark upon a de-construction of the common gambler’s pysche, I’ll issue you with a mere caution; any more of these antics and it’s 100 lines and a letter home to your parents
I hear you. Trust me, I’m not a liar. And I dont do that often, just when I start a thread. I know all about after timing and psychology (B.Sc!). I was told to write out the "Sale of Goods and Supply of Services ACT" in school once. I didn’t and in the end I was due to write it out 200 times (its LONG!). I obviously refused. It was dropped soon after…
Still, I’ll try not to flame you in the future. There was a touch of gloating about my post – but towards Segal, not anyone else!
Am on this gamble to i bet Nationlism at 10/1 yesterday with Coral now he is 8/1 i gone for a win bet as well.
And Segal put this horse up in the weekender to.
Looks like Forte Dei Marmi isn’t going to Newmarket now. His loyal followers would have been compensated today however.
I’ve got a couple of ideas for this race.
Taqleed
– The idea of backing an unexposed J.Gosden 3yo in this is a sound one. Nationalism has had all the support & that may prove to be justified…but Taqleed has a very similar profile, is probably even less exposed, & is a few lbs lower in the ratings. Has had a prep on this course over 10f as well. Think I’d rather take a chance with him at 20/1, than the favourite at 4/1.
Emirates Dream
– This is much more speculative, as it’s not his stables MO to win this sort of race, & he may not even run. You also have to buy into a few excuses. As a 2yo, this horse was chasing home the likes of Behkabad, Siyouni & Buzzword (all rated OR110+). As a 3yo, his form looks disappointing…but if you’re prepared to write off his 1st run of the season in a G2 in May (not Godophins best time & possibly 1m3f too far), & his 3rd run of the season at Goodwood (1m4f too far again?). You are left with two 2010 runs. A 3rd in a 10f conditions race at Leicester. On face value, that doesn’t look great, but he was beaten by Myplacelater & Desert Myth (who are now rated OR110 & OR107 respectively) & Prompter (now rated OR102) was behind in 5th. Most recently ED has won a small handicap comfortably off OR93 at Goodwood. You can argue that he’s well hanicapped off OR93 & a 4lb penalty. Whether he has the toughness for a race like this, that has to be proved, but imo he should not be anywhere near a 40/1 shot.
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