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Topspeed Going Allowance Calculation?

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  • #6249
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    Can anyone tell me how TS calculates the time based ground?

    Could you refer it to the results at Fakenham today please.

    <!– m –>http://www.racingpost.co.uk/horses/past … =2008-1-14<!– m –>

    I dont need how the TS figure itself is calculated.

    Thks.

    #135316
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4822

    Can any speed genius help with this at all?

    #135331
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    I’m no genius, on speed or otherwise :D but I presume they use historical data to determine what the time based ground is by comparing the going allowance on the day to that of past meetings.

    So if the ground is normally -1.2s/f when the going is Sft at Fakenham, then a going allowance of -1.19s/f would suggest Sft ground and not Gd/Sft.

    #135334
    non vintage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1268

    Just out of interest (can’t access the RP site just now), are the figures for Fakenham very low again?

    Based on recent results and speed figures from the course, I can’t help thinking something has changed…

    #135373
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    I’ve made it a resolution not to post about such matters since I was accused of being a hypocrite on Betfair for pointing out flaws in RP’s methodology in this and other areas.

    Besides, I can’t remember any longer how TopSpeed is calculated.

    Perhaps you could contact the Post directly.

    #135385
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    Thanks, but "I can’t remember any longer how TopSpeed is calculated."

    There was something published in the Post about three years ago. Worth a repeat, I would say.

    #135523
    robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 899

    The actual race distances at Fakenham appear to be far longer than advertised, so Dave Edwards may be having to make some "additional" fudges to the normal RP method so that more realistic figures come out of the maths. (Taunton, Sedgefield, Kempton, Carlisle, Uttoxeter etc have similar dubious race distances, based on race times)

    The basic method has been summarised in the Systems section.

    #135633
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Cavelino Rampante,

    I’m afraid at this time of year in particular, the usually reliable Topspeed going allowances and the resulting ‘time-based going’ are (as robert suggests)guesstimates rather than the usual logically derived estimates.

    This is inevitable as many jumps courses change their configurations and race distances on an ad hoc basis to suit the climate and the ground, probably with good justification.

    As a result, Topspeed figures are often questionable for jump racing whereas they are much more reliable on the flat.

    Exactly what the ground was like on a particular day at a jumps fixture is therefore debateable, to say the least, and cannot be deduced conclusively from the race times.

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