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Racing Post Weekender Front Page “Frankel …. Tom Segal is worried about the vibes”
In Tom Segal’s Racing Post Weekender column today: “If I was a Frankel backer I would be afraid, very afraid.”
Tom uses a Henry Cecil partial quote: “He’s (Frankel)more laid back in his work and he might well now stay the Derby trip”
Tom translates this as “normally trainerspeak for he’s working like an asthmatic slug carrying some heavy shopping” and then says this is “hot on the heels of the trainer suggesting he didn’t trust himself to get Frankel ready for Newmarket first time up – and that had the warning sirens ringing too”
In the RP stories database about Frankel (25/03/11): Henry Cecil said: "I think last year he was immature in a lot of ways and was inclined to be a bit free in his work and when he ran. He’s grown and lengthened and he settles. Mentally he has matured, he’s much more settled and relaxed. I worked him on Wednesday to get him ready for his trial in the middle of April. He was lovely and relaxed, when I asked him to go away he was lolloping along and not taking hold of his bridle as he was inclined to do last year. I’m delighted with him “
Henry explained: "I don’t trust myself in running a horse in one of the first Classics without a race. A race will bring him on and give him something to think about. It’s a prep race for a long and important year and I want him to go away overnight. If you run them straight into the Guineas after a long winter you have got to be a little bit tougher with them at home. They’ve got to be right – you can go quietly into the trial, ready for a race, but the adrenaline of being on a racecourse will do more good."
All eight (that is 100% for the statisticians among you) of Henry’s 2000 or 1000 Guineas winners had a previous outing that season, and I think all of his serious contenders who didn’t win did the same too. It’s a pattern going back 36 years. Also, Henry said in a public interview last October almost word for word what was quoted above about running a prep race, probably the Greenham. How prescient of him to know that by March Frankel would be imitating an asthamtic slug and he wouldn’t be able to get him fit first time out in 2011!
Did Tom write this because he truly believes it, despite the seeming lack of research into the RP quotes database and Henry’s Guineas record? Tom didn’t get where he is today without a lot of diligent research behind his usual race predictions.
Or was it an editorial punishment for the Pricewise Extra team not tipping a winner for six weeks? I can imagine the editor: “If they are not going to buy the Weekender for the tips, then write something alarming that we can put on the front page to get people buying the paper this week”
Was that the Tipster or the Journalist speaking? Should we take this seriously?
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Who knows?
I trust the guy to a degree. Not regarding tips (I like to make my own choices) but I’d imagine he gets more info than the average Joe.
The guineas will still be a good race anyway, Frankel or not. Look at the unexpected quality from last years race when St Nicholas Abbey didn’t perform.
I must admit though, when I heard he’s entered in the Dante (less than 3 weeks after the Guineas) I was a bit shocked, 3 races before the second week in May!
Maybe they really are unsure about him, maybe I’m reading into things too much, but my initial thought was, something unexpected has happened.
We’ll have a better Idea in a months time, that’s for sure.
This makes the 14/1 e/w widely available on Wootton B look quite good – but I notice bookmakers are running scared and restricting bets.
Frankel has impressed on the gallops but that was over a mile. So it looks as if he may be being trained for a longer race than 2000g, such as Derby.
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Just my opinion, but the horse has proved difficult to settle on occasion, so the mile gallop was probably part of Frankel’s education in that respect, and the fact that he is intended to have a pipe-opener tells us that Henry is entirely serious about his preparation as a Guinea’s horse. Should lessen the chance of his being too ‘fizzy’ on the big day, too.
Whom would you trust, Henry C. or Tom Segal?
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A disapointing article from Tom Segal, I didn’t think he was the sort of person to describle champion 2yos as "asthmatic" "slugs".
Either he’s had inside information or reading to much into trainer quotes.
Whatever the merits of Tom’s article, evens from last October was always a poor price imo.
I also have a gut feeling (and nothing more than that), that this will be a disappointing year for Henry Cecil.
I am an avid Henry Cecil fan and also follow what Tom Segal says. For me Mr Cecil will not send this very exciting prospect to the Guineas half cooked so maybe they will give the Guineas a miss altogether and are starting to lean towards the derby which thay have always tended to believe he would not stay!
Strange for Tom Segal to be so negative about a ‘star’ horse from a very well respected yard. Shame really as he generally writes very well indeed.
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An article worthy of publication in The Sun. Tom is probably as proud of that piece as he is about his last visit to the bathroom.
Did he write a similar article leading up to last year’s showdown farce?
If Frankel gets beat in 30 days then that column will become revered. He’s just stating an opinion. I agree he’s reading a lot into what was said, but perhaps perhaps maybe perhaps, he’s right.
Looks like Dante -> Derby, doesn’t it?
No Guineas; but maybe a prep for the Dante?Just guessing.
A poor guess at that – Teddy Grimthorpe was quoted yesterday:
"First, Frankel will head to the 2,000 Guineas. We will have to see what he does, how he does it and everything else at Newmarket and go on from there."Just puzzling.
After all the huff and puff with regards to Tom Segal and Frankel, he’s still only willing to play EW against him.
An article worthy of publication in The Sun. Tom is probably as proud of that piece as he is about his last visit to the bathroom.
Did he write a similar article leading up to last year’s showdown farce?
lol, I wonder what he wrote when he tipped up Sea The Stars the year before at 25/1.
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