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Wouldnt ususally play early on the race but have taken on the fav claimantakinforgan, i like the horse and the bumper form has worked out very well, 2nd fav for the supreme which i cannot see atall, ill be bitterly disappointed if something wasnt capable of improving past him
Kalashnikov, i hope runs well but im not convinced hes upto this, albeit its similar to last year and not the strongest race, irish prophecy was hammered NTO by if the cap fits and he will need a decent step forward to be competitive
Speak easy, sussex rangers and we have a dream will all run elsewhere
Leaves me with my two
Western ryder 10/3 Wont be too bothered by the ground and i see hes shortening up a fair bit atm, can see him going off 7/4, giving weight away to a decent sort last time and won relatively comfortably, has the beating of sumerville boy also.
Mont des avaloirs 8/1 e/w There is 10/1 about but thats only paying 2 places and i think hes a cracking e/w bet for 3rd, the field is likely to have 5 runners max, i cant see summerville boy or the russian doyen finishing ahead, which leaves hendos other horse whos not a guaranteed runner.
Claimantakingforgan wins this all day for me and I think will be very competitive in the supreme. Henderson always has a horse place or win in the supreme and this year it’s him and Henderson speaks very highly of him.
‘Ham’ you mention you want to take on CTFM but then made positive statement about him without any negatives? Plus he beat western rider in the bumper last season and you’ve backed him. I know you can’t take that form literally but I would actually imagine CTFM to progress more under Henderson than western rider but we all have our opinions.
I thought CTFM looked seriously good last time, I know they weren’t amazing horses in behind that day but he won a grade 2 going away and he seems to be the type to improve every single run.
I think he wins this quite comfortably and he’s currently clear fav for supreme not 2nd fav
Another for the Nicholls horse here, though I’ve backed Kalashnikov both times thus far this season. The price difference is too great and I expect this has been a target for Nicholls all season
Claimantakingforgan wins this all day for me and I think will be very competitive in the supreme. Henderson always has a horse place or win in the supreme and this year it’s him and Henderson speaks very highly of him.
‘Ham’ you mention you want to take on CTFM but then made positive statement about him without any negatives? Plus he beat western rider in the bumper last season and you’ve backed him. I know you can’t take that form literally but I would actually imagine CTFM to progress more under Henderson than western rider but we all have our opinions.
I thought CTFM looked seriously good last time, I know they weren’t amazing horses in behind that day but he won a grade 2 going away and he seems to be the type to improve every single run.
I think he wins this quite comfortably and he’s currently clear fav for supreme not 2nd fav
I like the horse but it doesnt mean i think he will win, and because i make a positive statement doesnt mean i think he cant lose, every race is different,he has plenty of negatives in this race, hence why since i posted this hendo has already confirmed he WONT run if the ground remains as it is, 6/4 out to 10/3
The bumper form as a whole has worked out well and my head just tells me i think western ryder will be suited better for thisrace, ground etc, not to mention he reversed the cheltenham bumper form at aintree so why would that matter that ive backed him for this? I dont aee what the relevance is to this race, also then western ryder went over hurdles and reversed the form of the aintree bumper winner, giving weight to him…good sign of progression..no?
Personally i cant see claimantakinforgan winning the supreme, or western ryder.. hendo is minding him for that race clearly hence why hes not going to run him here now if its heavy
And no hes not clear fav either, hes 8/1 and 15/2 in places, mengli khan is 10/1 and 6/1 in places, there is no clear fav for the supreme as of now, its an open market.
Fair enough and if it is heavy I’d probably rather he didn’t run then.
I think writing him off for supreme is a bit dangerous though. Remember altior wasn’t convincing until he beat open eagle on his 3rd hurdle start then he turned out to be a monster. CTFM seems to be improving in a similar way and actually races in a similar way in my eyes. I’m not saying he’s the next altior as he’s unique but could be a serious animal.
Nothing else in the supreme looks top class other than if the cap fits who could be.I was just going on the exchange prices for favouritism.
By the way Ham I seem to disagree with you a lot lately but nothing personal! Haha.
I actually enjoy debating with you more than most
Fair enough and if it is heavy I’d probably rather he didn’t run then.
I think writing him off for supreme is a bit dangerous though. Remember altior wasn’t convincing until he beat open eagle on his 3rd hurdle start then he turned out to be a monster. CTFM seems to be improving in a similar way and actually races in a similar way in my eyes. I’m not saying he’s the next altior as he’s unique but could be a serious animal.
Nothing else in the supreme looks top class other than if the cap fits who could be.I was just going on the exchange prices for favouritism.
By the way Ham I seem to disagree with you a lot lately but nothing personal! Haha.
I actually enjoy debating with you more than mostYou may be right regarding the supreme as ive said, just my opinion, im often wrong.
Haha nothing personal taken jas, debate often throws up some angles i hadnt thought of, its often a helpful tool
good luck with your horse if he shows I could not believe my eyes how short Claimantakinforgan was on the opening show for the race. It seemed much of his position was due to being third in the Champion Bumper. His hurdles form looks nothing startling to my eyes. At as low as 6/4 he was an easy pass for me.
Western Ryder also struck me as too short. The form of his first hurdle win is 0-0-12 from twelve runs. He went 1-1 with the original favourite in terms of who came out best in the Cheltenham and Aintree bumpers and you wouldn’t see a lot between them in theory from those two races.
Kalashnikov was considered at 9/2 but the 9/4 is skinny enough now. He’s been coming in as Claimantakinforgan has been drifting like the Kontiki.
Nicholls’ Mont Des Avaloirs was interesting at 10/1 but I don’t think there is a lot of substance to his wins and his jumping hasn’t been the most fluent.
I preferred the younger Henderson horse and he gets 12 lbs from the older horses. I am not sure that they can concede that to him. He looks promising and every pound may count in a race that looks more open than the original odds suggested with quite a warm favourite.
We Have A Dream had them strung out like washing in a Grade 2 last time and he looks another excellent ex French prospect for the trainer/owner combination. I felt he might be in the Hargam/Peace and Co mould with Cheltenham on the agenda ultimately. He hit the line ears pricked last time at Donny on ground that seemed to look a good bit softer than the description. Those behind him certainly looked weary.
I’ll be disappointed if he can’t win this with the weight concession.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Agree with all of the above Steve, If WHAD turns up he’s interesting, but don’t think that is the plan currently as Jacob is jocked up at Chepstow (Although Hendo might be up to his tricks again).
I played 2 pts Kalashnikov at 3s this morning when I went through the race and the doubts over the Hendo runners.
He’s looked very smart in his runs to date and really hope he can show what Amy Murphy can do with a good horse.Agree with all of the above Steve, If WHAD turns up he’s interesting, but don’t think that is the plan currently as Jacob is jocked up at Chepstow (Although Hendo might be up to his tricks again).
I played 2 pts Kalashnikov at 3s this morning when I went through the race and the doubts over the Hendo runners.
He’s looked very smart in his runs to date and really hope he can show what Amy Murphy can do with a good horse.The horse has been backed from 12/1 into 5/1 and I am reckoning that must mean something. I haven’t actually played yet but with one horse going one way and the stablemate friendless it looks like some people seem to know something.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I know the price contracted markedly but he’s by Martaline and they nearly always prefer much better ground than what he’ll encounter at Sandown.
A young, progressive novice…I wouldn’t risk him.
Claimantakinforgan, we have a dream, whats wrong with you, speak easy, dream brother all not declared, sussex ranger left in but still likely to goto chepstow
6 in, 5 probably after SR comes out as moore is jocked up at chepstow.
Johnson jocked up on western ryder
We Have A Dream declared for Chepstow
Bizarre.
Very, i thought he would keep him away from a potentially tough race on bottomless ground, strange. Thats what he seemed to indicate from his interview anyway
Think the money for WHAD was people trying to second guess Hendo rather than any serious money. Doesn’t take much money to move a horse antepost with such low liquidity.
Think he’ll be going to Chepstow as Jacob is riding there and won’t want to miss out on the ride on him in a G1.
He is in the Sandown Juv as second pref in case Chepstow is chopped, again.
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