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Sorry Reet,
Sizing Europe is top price 100/30. To be worth a bet at that price a punter needs to believe he has better than a 23% chance of winning. Where as Big Zeb is 7/1, a punter needs to believe he has a better than 12.5% chance. There is the age thing, but does Sizing Europe really have almost double the chance of Big Zeb? A couple that on form are of very similar ability. And in my opinion Big Zeb has a better than 12.5% chance. At this stage I’d estimate Sizing Europe at around 20% and Big Zeb 16%.you are guessing, surely. How you can say that big zeb has only 4 percent less chance of winning the race than sizing europe is beyond me.
Not "guessing" ElGranSenor, but "informed opinion". In exactly the same way as bookmakers are using "informed opinion to calculate their odds. As always, it is all about opinion, mine against theirs. I’ll back my opinion.
Value Is EverythingI don’t think for a second that Sizing Europe ran below form at Punchestown, I just think that he needs more of a galloping track and is obviously very much at home at Cheltenham.
God forbid you should introduce minor details like track configuration into a discussion with our resident "form expert", Zark.
Far easier for him to decide horses are going up and down in form or disappointing (in equal measure,ffs), than for him to actually figure out why.Of course Sizing Europe has a good record at Cheltenham Reet. Am not disputing that. But Sizing Europe seems pretty good at places like Sandown and Leopardstown and is a four time winner at Punchestown.
For sure Sizing Europe won the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham. But then on his next start showed a lot more improvement to win the Grade 1 AIG Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Winning by 8 lengths from Hardy Eustace and Al Eile.
The
best performance by a 2 mile hurdler seen that season.
It’s hardly that Sizing Europe needs Cheltenham to show his best.
Value Is EverythingSizing Europe kicked Big Zeb into touch when they were novices and not much has changed. He’s simply a much faster horse.
The fact Big Zeb beat him came as no surprise after the season Sizing Europe had. Not only did the step him up a mile in trip but the threw him in against Kauto Star.
Thankfully the trainer seems to have convinced the owner he’s not going to be winning any Gold Cups and the plan is to keep him to 2 miles for now.
I just can’t see Big Zeb beating him barring accidents and Sizing Europe makes very few mistakes.
In reality there would be a 10% chance he might but his card looks well and truly marked.
Finian’s Rainbow on the other hand is to an extent unexposed, but he is very talented. The fact we don’t know how talented he’ll be with another year on his back, makes him a bigger danger than Big Zeb, who Sizing Europe has definitely got the measure off.
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I’d go along with most of that, HGM, ‘cept that Sizing Europe has more pace rather than more speed.
We all know he stays damn near 3m at the top level, whereas Big Zeb didn’t last home in his last 2 runs over 2.5m, and hasn’t raced over more than 17f in his 16 races since his novice days.
With SE having thrashed BZ 5l in last season’s CC, and probably improved since, I doubt there is a danger, though BZ may be closest.
Wouldn’t have Finian’s Rainbow on my mind, personally.
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