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One thing I forgot to mention. Would a few more folks like to come up with a figure for So You Think? Very interesting horse for season 2011.
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Personally I can’t see what all this fuss is about. It was a quite scintillating performance from a horse that was very much on the upgrade and typical improvement from a Stoute horse.
On the contrary, Jonibake, the supposed improvement shown by Harbinger is atypical, and not at all in line with his previous form or his rate of progression.
The OH shows his improvement for the 2010 season as:
1st race +4lb
2nd race +4lb
3rd race +3lb
4th race+12lb
(King George)
12lb is an inordinate amount for a high class, progressive 4yo to find in his 4th race of the season, and raises serious questions about the validity of the subsequent ratings.
The better horses do improve, particularly those with SMS, but it’s usually linear and fairly predictable(allowing for the vagaries of distance, going, etc), and it defys logic to suggest they bounce up and down to the extent that Timeform, or the Official Handicapper, would have us believe.Personally I can’t see what all this fuss is about. It was a quite scintillating performance from a horse that was very much on the upgrade and typical improvement from a Stoute horse.
On the contrary, Jonibake, the supposed improvement shown by Harbinger is atypical, and not at all in line with his previous form or his rate of progression.
The OH shows his improvement for the 2010 season as:
1st race +4lb
2nd race +4lb
3rd race +3lb
4th race+12lb
(King George)
12lb is an inordinate amount for a high class, progressive 4yo to find in his 4th race of the season, and raises serious questions about the validity of the subsequent ratings.
The better horses do improve, particularly those with SMS, but it’s usually linear and fairly predictable(allowing for the vagaries of distance, going, etc), and it defys logic to suggest they bounce up and down to the extent that Timeform, or the Official Handicapper, would have us believe.A fair point RH but it depends which ratings you go by. For example the RPR have him reaching 135 via 121, 126 and 129. A much more sensible rise no? Also there is the fact that the step up in class can reasonably be assumed to have brought out more improvement in him. Safe to say he wasnt stretched at Chester.
I hope we can agree that it was a great performance whatever the rating and just a shame that he got injured and wasnt able to settle the argument!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Reet,
Harbinger is described in Timeform as a "big, imposing" sort, the type of 4 year old Sir Michael Stoute does extremely well with.
Immediately after the Hardwicke, Timeform had Harbinger at 131.
But what happenned afterwards?:
2nd Duncan is not the most genuine / consistent. Going well before "barged around" and needed no excuse to down tools in the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. A race won by Hardwicke 5th Redwood. (So franking the form). Barry Hills horse had recently been 2nd to Hardwicke 4th Sans Frontieres in the Princess Of Wales Stakes. Jeremy Noseda’s horse then went on to win the Geoffery Freer Stakes and Irish St Leger (from Profound Beauty). Redwood also going on to win the Northern Dancer (Grade 1) in Canada. Duncan put his best foot forward to win the Prix Foy from Nakayama Festa (who improved when second to Workforce in the Arc). Hardwicke 3rd Barshiba won the Lancashire Oaks on her next start too.
Second, third, fourth, fifth all franking the form of the Hardwicke -: A race that Harbinger did not just win, he "cruised through" the race and showed a blistering turn of foot to win by an easy 3 1/2 lengths from Duncan with 6 lengths back to Barshiba, 1 1/2 and 3/4 lengths back to Sans Frontieres and Redwood:
The 131 Timeform originally gave Harbinger for his Hardwicke success, can (imo) be revised quite considerably upwards. I don’t know what Timeform now rate the Hardwicke, but I estimate it at around 135 or 136. Putting up a good Group 1 performance in a Group 2 race.
So in hindsight Harbinger probably only had to improve 4 or 5 lbs to produce a 140 in the King George. Not the 12 lbs you imply (by using official handicappers ratings).
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Jonibake
Agree that RPR’s are probably more representative (improved about 5lbs per race throughout the season) but they only culminated in a (much more sensible,imo) 135. Still a top class performance though.Ginger
Even a (TF’s) rise of 9lb would seem excessive – the rest is your usual bending of the case to make it fit TF’s figures.
So Reet, you think an organisation that produces form ratings, should not look at the subsequent performances of those involved, to accertain a more accurate rating?
How is looking at subsequent form "bending of the case to make it fit"?
Thought you were better than that Reet.
Value Is EverythingOf all the glaring "errors" or "miscalculations" in the lists provided I’m very surprised when it comes to your Dangerous Midge/Lord Chaparral/Rainbow Peak formline assesment. LC 126? Nothing there for Rainbow Peak? Please explain.
I gave Dangerous Midge a 126 for his victory at Newbury. A huge score for a Group 3 but he trounced a decent Ledger horse, a Melbourne Cup runner up,a multiple German Group 1 winner and a heavily backed improving Jarvis animal in that race. The rating proved correct at the Breeders Cup, imo.
I’ve only listed as far as 125. I gave Rainbow Peak a 124 for the Italian victory, 2lbs less than Lord Chaparral in the same race. The 5lbs Lord Chaparral received from the winner plus the 7lbs wfa allowance for three year old’s in the race meant Lord Chapparal effectively conceded 2lbs for a short head defeat and thus gets the higher rating. I awarded 124 to the winner based on the distances back to Juddmonte 5th Cavalryman, Grosser Preis Van Baden winner, Night Magic and Gran Prix Di Milano winner Jakkalberry. I don’t correct for heavy ground (I don’t know what the Racform scale is in these conditions) so perhaps the winning distances are a bit exaggerated, however Cavalryman, Night Magic and Jakkalberry all have decent form on heavy ground. I’d like to think the 124 awarded to the winner was franked in Kentucky.
Haven’t done all the Australian 2010 Group 1 form yet but I’d provisionally put So You Think at 127. Could be an immense horse this year.
Rubbishing him because he beat a horse that failed to stay in the Gold Cup is silly. Manifest won the Yorkshire Cup by 8 lengths and was actually rated the top stayer of 2010!
Such a shame that he didn’t get the chance to prove his brilliance.
Whether Manifest failed to stay or not is irrelevant. To my eye he seemed to be struggling to cope with the step into Group 1 company throughout the race, and never at any stage looked a likely winner. Ask failed to stay in the same race and even if Queally had not stopped riding towards the end, Ask still would have finished someway in front of Manifest. Does that make Ask better than Harbinger?
It seems to me that supporters of Harbinger’s rating selectively overlook the shorcomings of the horses he beat prior to the KG, as well as ignoring the way his hyped up 3 year old career completely tailed off.
I still think the steep decline of Youmzain in 2010 is a fair starting point with which to put Harbinger’s KG into some perspective. I also think as you have raised the subject of non-stayers, Aidan O’Brien had grave doubts about Cape Blanco’s ability to stay 12f prior to the Irish Derby and although he won what turned out to be a very tactical affair made so by by the presence of 4 stablemates, his next two attempts at the trip saw him convincingly defeated, one in the KG itself.
As for Workforce, everybody knows he somply did not turn up at Ascot so there is simply no value whatsoever in using him as a measure in determining the value of Harninger’s KG form, unless of course you are then able to explain why in teh Arc he was able to finish 9 lengths further ahead of Cape Blanco than Harbinger did.
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Rubbishing him because he beat a horse that failed to stay in the Gold Cup is silly. Manifest won the Yorkshire Cup by 8 lengths and was actually rated the top stayer of 2010!
Such a shame that he didn’t get the chance to prove his brilliance.
Whether Manifest failed to stay or not is irrelevant. To my eye he seemed to be struggling to cope with the step into Group 1 company throughout the race, and never at any stage looked a likely winner. Ask failed to stay in the same race and even if Queally had not stopped riding towards the end, Ask still would have finished someway in front of Manifest. Does that make Ask better than Harbinger?
It seems to me that supporters of Harbinger’s rating selectively overlook the shorcomings of the horses he beat prior to the KG, as well as ignoring the way his hyped up 3 year old career completely tailed off.
I still think the steep decline of Youmzain in 2010 is a fair starting point with which to put Harbinger’s KG into some perspective. I also think as you have raised the subject of non-stayers, Aidan O’Brien had grave doubts about Cape Blanco’s ability to stay 12f prior to the Irish Derby and although he won what turned out to be a very tactical affair made so by by the presence of 4 stablemates, his next two attempts at the trip saw him convincingly defeated, one in the KG itself.
As for Workforce, everybody knows he somply did not turn up at Ascot so there is simply no value whatsoever in using him as a measure in determining the value of Harninger’s KG form, unless of course you are then able to explain why in teh Arc he was able to finish 9 lengths further ahead of Cape Blanco than Harbinger did.
ivanjica,
Can I just say that I’ve never read a post on here more accruate and spot on, you’ve provided solid answers in a well thoughtout post.
Thanks!
Seville 7 lbs superior to Dubai Prince?
I know Ballydoyle 2yos improve for their debuts but DP beat him at Gowran and easily won the Kilavullan subsequently.
Can I just say that I’ve never read a post on here more accruate and spot on, you’ve provided solid answers in a well thoughtout post.
Thanks!
It is accurate not accruate. Be accurate.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Rubbishing him because he beat a horse that failed to stay in the Gold Cup is silly. Manifest won the Yorkshire Cup by 8 lengths and was actually rated the top stayer of 2010!
Such a shame that he didn’t get the chance to prove his brilliance.
Whether Manifest failed to stay or not is irrelevant. To my eye he seemed to be struggling to cope with the step into Group 1 company throughout the race, and never at any stage looked a likely winner. Ask failed to stay in the same race and even if Queally had not stopped riding towards the end, Ask still would have finished someway in front of Manifest. Does that make Ask better than Harbinger?
It seems to me that supporters of Harbinger’s rating selectively overlook the shorcomings of the horses he beat prior to the KG, as well as ignoring the way his hyped up 3 year old career completely tailed off.
I still think the steep decline of Youmzain in 2010 is a fair starting point with which to put Harbinger’s KG into some perspective. I also think as you have raised the subject of non-stayers, Aidan O’Brien had grave doubts about Cape Blanco’s ability to stay 12f prior to the Irish Derby and although he won what turned out to be a very tactical affair made so by by the presence of 4 stablemates, his next two attempts at the trip saw him convincingly defeated, one in the KG itself.
As for Workforce, everybody knows he somply did not turn up at Ascot so there is simply no value whatsoever in using him as a measure in determining the value of Harninger’s KG form, unless of course you are then able to explain why in teh Arc he was able to finish 9 lengths further ahead of Cape Blanco than Harbinger did.
How can you possibly say that Manifest not staying is irrelevant? Of course it is and you cannot judge Harbinger on the 3 length beating he gave him in his first race of the season anyway! It seems to me that detractors of Harbinger’s rating selectively overlook the strong form shown by the horses he beat prior to the KG (see Ginger’s post above and including Manifest’s Yorkshire Cup romp over a more suitable distance on more suitable ground and a performance rated as the top staying perf of the year by Timeform!!!)
Please don’t try and use Cape Blanco’s non-performance in the Arc as evidence or are you suggesting he ran to form?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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Hi Cav,
Thanks for the considered reply. I can’t say that I agree with your assessment but such is life. Every favourite might be long odds on if everyone agreed all the time ( a bit like a day at the Bangkok Sports Club ).I might have missed something but I cannot see how a three year old with a weight allowance rates higher than an older horse that wins the race. Especially given that the 3yo led all the way at his own pace and was significantly favoured by the pattern of the race. Doesn’t the scale adjust itself slightly so late in the season when LC was closer to four than three? Wasn’t the winner good for better than the official margin given the leader bias of the race? Is your rating for a 3yo category only or an all aged horse?
I also do not agree with the assessment of Dangerous Midge. The Breeders race was very weak for mine. Behkabad was at the end of his tether imo having begun his campaign on April 1st yet he finished only 3.25 astern at Churchill Downs. I’m not sure the French 3yo 12f form was all that great in 2010 anyway. Of the rest Debussy doesn’t stay 12f downhill and the Americans were sub par to Euro turf Gr1 standards. They may go ok on US firm ground goat tracks with their "vitamin injections" but wouldn’t get warm in a fair dinkum Euro Gr1 contest. Yes, I’m thinking the runner up and fourth placegetters. Sixth and seventh would be hard pressed in Europe beyond Gr3 company.
As for the Newbury race your assessment was some way off for mine. 122 at very best I think. But that’s just my opinion. He received seven pounds from the third placegetter Camponologist and gave him a six length beating. I think the Godolphin animal is a really good Gr2 ( A Grade Euro races ) horse at best albeit inconsistent. He only beat horses that have proven to be well below top flight ( A Grade Euro races ) in Germany. You mention Monitor Closely but his form was way off after return from injury. He never rated 110 all year for me. The proximity of Bauer doesn’t give the form a significant enough boost IMO either. I think it’s wrong to boost another horses rating based on the second in the Melbourne Cup. Some very slow animals have been placed in that race over the years. IMO the Newbury race was a genuine Gr2 and winners of those simply do not rate 126. Many Gr1 winners don’t hit that mark ( in A or B Grade Gr1 ).
I’ve waited years to see a real Aussie champ compete over here. I hope the O’Brien camp can keep him sound and get him to his peak. This horse is significantly better than Starcraft, Haradasun and Elvstroem. I just wish he was with Stoute instead of O’Brien.
There’s my thoughts on the subject. Make of them what you will and best of luck with 2011.
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Please don’t try and use Cape Blanco’s non-performance in the Arc as evidence or are you suggesting he ran to form?
Are you suggesting that Cape Blanco ran to form in the King George? Despite Phil Smith, Timeform etc, seemingly accepting it as fact, there’s clear evidence that he ran below his Irish Derby form.
At the Curragh, off a none too searching pace, he was put into the race late on, and was gaining ground on the opposition at the finish. At Ascot, he was put into the race earlier, off a stiffer pace, and was losing ground in the final stages. Ridden in that manner, he clearly didn’t see the race out as well as he had in Ireland, and as a consequence, was below his previous form.
RPR,to their credit, rated his run 4lb lower for the KG, while most others made the bald assumption that he ran to the same mark. He didn’t, and for my money ran about 6lbs below it, which puts a slightly different perspective on Harbinger’s victory margin, and his consquent rating.reet hard – For the record, contrary to your post, Timeform rated Cape Blanco’s King George run 10lb below his Irish Champion rating and 3lb below his Irish Derby rating.
All this talk of slow pace and tactics in the Irish Derby but look at the winning time. 3 and a half seconds faster than standard!
To be honest I am getting bored of defending a blatantly brilliant horse. If people want to slate him they are perfectly entitled to but I am not in racing for that. Degrading him because of his three year old career is just too much for me. Nurse!!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Timeform’s leading stayers in 2010
Manifest had looked an excellent Cup prospect when chasing home Harbinger in the John Porter at Newbury and did nothing to alter that opinion when trouncing his field in the Yorkshire Cup. Although that race was weakened by a number of withdrawals on the day, Manifest couldn’t have made a better impression, galloping away powerfully to beat Purple Moon by 8 lengths. In our opinion, that is the best single piece of form over a staying trip in Europe last season, and there were valid excuses for Manifest not reproducing it in the Gold Cup.127 Manifest
126 Age of Aquarius, Americain
124 Rite of Passagehttp://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/timeform-reveal-leading-ratings-from-2010-flat-season-100111.html
I agree with Harbinger, don’t know about Manifest though. Yorkshire Cup Timeform "timefigure" was 46lbs less than the Timeform "rating". Not that that goes against Manifest on its own, just means it was a slowly run race. However….
Looking at Purple Moon’s, his best form is (I believe) in truly run races, Ebor etc. So comparing the Yorkshire and Ascot Gold Cup performances is difficult. Latter’s pace far faster (timefigure just 10lbs less than the rating) and over much further. May be at the age of 7, Purple Moon now needs a greater test too.
Rest of the Yorkshire Cup runners did not do anything for the form. Wajir, Oasis Knight and Nanton.Manifest undoubtedly deserves to be rated highly, have some doubts whether he should (yet) be rated above the Ascot Gold Cup one/two. If all is well, Manifest has potential to improve again this season.
Value Is Everything
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