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I didn’t think much of the Timeform blurb for Open Eagle today. It read as follows:-
"OPEN EAGLE landed a trio of competitive handicaps on the Flat last year and will be hard to beat if jumping proficiently on debut in this sphere. Indeed, the fact that he holds entries in all the top novice hurdles at next month’s Cheltenham Festival suggest that his new connections have high hopes for him. Oscar Knight and Total Recall are both promising types and can fill the places."
The problem I have is the fact that they have overlooked that, during the week, the stable had said he won’t be running at Cheltenham, win, lose or draw. The horse has had his debut continually pushed back and from early reports that "he looked a natural" the vibes had become less positive.
The race ultimately chosen for his debut was a very lowly grade, hardly inspiring confidence and you have to say that 2 and a half miles for a flat recruit’s first race over sticks looked a strange choice of distance.
The horse briefly looked like he might come with a run today but his effort petered out pretty quickly. It didn’t look to me that he got home over the trip and even if he had, the form was a million miles away from Cheltenham level.
I felt that the Timeform piece was a very rose-tinted look at what has hardly been a copybook preparation for a horse bought relatively expensively and who connections would have been looking for to compete at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. The fact that he was making his debut in February was surely a negative worth mentioning in a preview?
It’s the free stuff isn’t it?
Just a summary of the horse’s chance.
If you want more, subscribe.
The point of Cheltenham entered is not about whether he’ll run or not Steve, it’s the fact he was thought worth entering in the first place suggests he’s well thought of. Won at a good level on the flat too.
However, when a horse hasn’t run since November and this was (as they said) Open Eagle’s hurdling debut… It’s pretty obvious the horse has had an injury since his last start.The horse has good flat form and promise for the future/hurdles; but question is: Is it worth chancing at the price when the horse hasn’t run yet (we all know it’s February, they don’t need to tell us) so has had a probable injury? (Ran as though needing it). Timeform do not know the price of the horse when giving their (free) 1-2-3. Open Eagle was 8/13.
Was the write up really good enough to suggest Open Eagle had a better than 62% chance? Doubt anyone who bets the way Timeform encourage (value) would’ve backed the horse.Who were the alternatives: The first and second.
If only I’d studied the race, might well have backed the winner with Timeform’s help.
I don’t see the problem Steve. If punters want to back the horse just because it was the 1 of the 1-2-3 – whatever the price – it’s their choice.
Value Is EverythingI didn’t think much of the Timeform blurb for Open Eagle today. It read as follows:-
"OPEN EAGLE landed a trio of competitive handicaps on the Flat last year and will be hard to beat if jumping proficiently on debut in this sphere. Indeed, the fact that he holds entries in all the top novice hurdles at next month’s Cheltenham Festival suggest that his new connections have high hopes for him. Oscar Knight and Total Recall are both promising types and can fill the places."
The problem I have is the fact that they have overlooked that, during the week, the stable had said he won’t be running at Cheltenham, win, lose or draw. The horse has had his debut continually pushed back and from early reports that "he looked a natural" the vibes had become less positive.
The race ultimately chosen for his debut was a very lowly grade, hardly inspiring confidence and you have to say that 2 and a half miles for a flat recruit’s first race over sticks looked a strange choice of distance.
The horse briefly looked like he might come with a run today but his effort petered out pretty quickly. It didn’t look to me that he got home over the trip and even if he had, the form was a million miles away from Cheltenham level.
I felt that the Timeform piece was a very rose-tinted look at what has hardly been a copybook preparation for a horse bought relatively expensively and who connections would have been looking for to compete at this year’s Cheltenham Festival. The fact that he was making his debut in February was surely a negative worth mentioning in a preview?
It’s the free stuff isn’t it?
Just a summary of the horse’s chance.
If you want more, subscribe.
The point of Cheltenham entered is not about whether he’ll run or not Steve, it’s the fact he was thought worth entering in the first place suggests he’s well thought of. Won at a good level on the flat too.
However, when a horse hasn’t run since November and this was (as they said) Open Eagle’s hurdling debut… It’s pretty obvious the horse has had an injury since his last start.The horse has good flat form and promise for the future/hurdles; but question is: Is it worth chancing at the price when the horse hasn’t run yet (we all know it’s February, they don’t need to tell us) so has had a probable injury? Timeform do not know the price of the horse when giving their (free) 1-2-3. Open Eagle was 8/13.
Was the write up really good enough to suggest Open Eagle had a better than 62% chance? Doubt anyone who bets the way Timeform encourage (value) would’ve backed the horse.Who were the alternatives: The first and second.
If only I’d studied the race, might well have backed the winner with Timeform’s help. I don’t see the problem Steve. If punters want to back the horse just because it was the 1 of the 1-2-3 – whatever the price – it’s their choice.
When was the horse injured?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Give me a break, I have made a comment about
one
preview that I felt was poor, given the public information I had referenced earlier in the week, and yet you are on my back accusing me of after-timing.
Yes it’s all about making profit overall, but I don’t think anyone should be immune from criticism, particularly when it is aimed in the spirit of providing customers with an improved service. God forbid that, any organisation might be of a mind to get their job done better
Punters can choose what they say. I have seen you mention Steve, when something’s surprised you, ie you’ve voluntarily pointed out you got it wrong – which is good. But it is not the usual thing for a punter to do.
Very natural for any punter to say words to the effect "I got that one right, look what I said about it before". I do it too, it’s not a criticism. But punters don’t do the same about the ones they get wrong. ie Had Open Eagle won easily today, you would probably not have chosen come on here at all.
Timeform publish what they think of every horse before and after a race. Not just one, but every horse. There’s always going to be some punter somewhere in the country who’s been "proved" right and Timeform wrong about one horse running somewhere.
Of course Timeform should be criticised, but to its subscribers what matters is Timeform’s over all record, not individual races/horses. And the free 1-2-3 is meant to be just a guide, not a tip as such.
Value Is EverythingGive me a break, I have made a comment about
one
preview that I felt was poor, given the public information I had referenced earlier in the week, and yet you are on my back accusing me of after-timing.
Yes it’s all about making profit overall, but I don’t think anyone should be immune from criticism, particularly when it is aimed in the spirit of providing customers with an improved service. God forbid that, any organisation might be of a mind to get their job done better
Punters can choose what they say. I have seen you mention Steve, when something’s surprised you, ie you’ve voluntarily pointed out you got it wrong – which is good. But it is not the usual thing for a punter to do.
Very natural for any punter to say words to the effect "I got that one right, look what I said about it before". I do it too, it’s not a criticism. But punters don’t do the same about the ones they get wrong. ie Had Open Eagle won easily today, you would probably not have chosen come on here at all.
Timeform publish what they think of every horse before and after a race. Not just one, but every horse. There’s always going to be some punter somewhere in the country who’s been "proved" right and Timeform wrong about one horse running somewhere.
Of course Timeform should be criticised, but to its subscribers what matters is Timeform’s over all record, not individual races/horses. And the free 1-2-3 is meant to be just a guide, not a tip as such.
When was the horse injured?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
When was the horse injured?
Why has a horse been off the course for 13 weeks Steve? It’s the same with any horse but particularly with one thought good enough for a Cheltenham entry – I’d have thought if a horse with potential (Cheltenham entries and good flat form) they’d have wanted to get it on course (debut) before February.
I suppose a break might be because the
change of trainer
(owner?) could signify only just come to Mullins, but if so why the Cheltenham entries?
Had it been
good
ground break might have been for "better ground". But today’s surface was soft to heavy (what we’ve had all year). And Open Eagle’s best flat form is on soft or heavy anyway.
One reason is sometimes a horse is
"best fresh"
. Open Eagle won the November Handicap off just a 4 day break, so although has won after a break – does not
need
to be fresh to show his form.
Therefore, although I’ve heard nothing officially my conclusion is the horse has
probably
been injured/had an issue. Does not mean it was a major thing, just to keep him off the track. Whenever a horse has not run for a while there must be a question mark against its fitness unless there’s a good reason. In this case I see no good reason Steve.
Value Is EverythingI am assuming there was no injury to Open Eagle.
I suggested just after the November Handicap romp that his handicap mark on the level was likely to leave him in an awkward position, and asked if Hurdles might be his next move. A few days afterwards he was bought, at what was a record price for the buyers, to go to Willie Mullins. Connections said at the time that, given the money invested and the horse’s flat rating, it was hoped he would be in the top order of the novice ranks this season.
I suspected that the horse was entered up in all the appropriate races as a matter of course because of his profile and exposed flat ability. It would differ with a horse coming with a different profile, and less obvious level of talent, who would be far more likely to have to show connections something that made them feel the horse was worth entering in a big novice race at Cheltenham.
I fully appreciate that the Timeform Guide is free and I’m not knocking a freebie. It’s a decent service to have, if probably more useful in some race types than others.
The Timeform writer may not have the odds to hand when writing a piece but it was as certain as Christmas that Open Eagle would be odds-on, given Jockey, Trainer, Flat Rating and the fact that the horse was beginning at a modest level. I felt it was lazy writing to tip the horse, citing Cheltenham entries as an indicator of his talent.
I felt that the emphasis of the race should have been to focus on why they were starting Open Eagle off at this stage of the season, at an unambitious level, having already ruled him out of Cheltenham contention earlier in the week.
Not having a go at Timeform in general, just felt that particular race preview didn’t paint a good picture of the circumstances.
The owners are trying to remain positive about Open Eagle commenting that he was deliberate at his hurdles. although I’m not sure I agree he was losing two lengths at every flight. They have indicated that he will stay at 2 miles 4 furlongs and will probably compete in another maiden, 3 to 4 weeks from now.
To my eyes it’s a disappointing start given the money paid and the early ambitions for the horse. He’s that bit more exposed and older than some recruits to the game and you would be thinking they would be seeking success sooner, rather than later for those reasons.
Regarding the Cheltenham entries, the owner’s representative said today:-
"We gave him the entries at Cheltenham, it would have been daft not to, but it was always likely to be too much too soon for an inexperienced horse like him."
If the horse
was
injured and had been set back, I think it’s something the public should have been made aware of. For now, he’s on "Cuddy Alert" in my safety settings
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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