- This topic has 64 replies, 24 voices, and was last updated 14 years ago by
.
- Posts
Prof T
Your unarguable logic, I would suggest, is confounded on an incredibly regular basis in classes 3 and below. In higher grade racing it’s still possible to comprehend why your selection lost and that the horse that won was indeed superior.
Formbook Einsteins generally form the same opinion over a period of time.
Formbook Einsteins set the prices.
Therein lies the problem for formbook Einsteins.
In 1950 Paul Selby, writing under the pseudonymn of "Marvex", wrote that:
"The form book is a record of the past and properly read is the guide to the future …"
The most important word is "properly", and therein lies the scope for differential achievement.
An example has been given of two horses meeting who have met previously under seemingly identical circumstances. The answer to the question which should be backed is not the one that prevailed last time (solely on that ground), still less the one at the "value" price (the price being small comfort if it loses). It is the one which will win the prospective race, in the analysis of which the previous race is one matter for consideration among numerous others. It is the form book that enables one to examine a race from all the angles one judges relevant and reach a considered decision.
On a general point as to whether the formbook is worth anything, I would just make the comment that Timeform’s race readers over the years have made a pretty accurate assessment of our horses’ performances. As a result, I have confidence in relying on the accuracy of Timeform’s comments on other horses.
The trick to using a formbook is identifying the important pieces of form and ignoring the runs where the horse wasn’t able to show its true merit (for whatever reason).
Some good posts on here and I agree with a lot of points raised.In my opinion the Formbook is Gospel but only when it comes to Top class racing,I always form my opinion from what I see with my own eyes,then confirm it through form and times etc.
Power
yesterday confirmed his Dewhurst form was the Real MCcoy and his Guineas run was all wrong but I’ve said it before Aiden O’Brien doesn’t give a monkeys about form and figures so I take his comments with a pinch of salt as you have to with virtually every trainer,they dont get up at 5am day after day to let ‘the cat out the bag’ they do it for themselves and their owners.Lower grade racing is still the most corrupt but the whole system is exploitable to do just that,so they do,we just have to accept it as part and parcel. What I will say though is this,in the past 30 yrs of studying horseracing,I would always be ready for the ‘Changeover period’ from National hunt to flat and vice-versa but in the last couple of years I find I miss the jumps and almost dread the flat,So somethings changed,I cant really put my finger on what it is but its definately harder to find winners on the flat than it is the Jumps imo anyway.
An old friend from way back Ronnie Polstlewaite better know to some as Ronny Foster the northern on course bookmaker advised me by saying punt over the jumps and lay them on the flat.
I’ve never forgotten that and the reason is like you I dread the start of the flat.
The thing is you can look at a maiden who’s had a run and think he’s a right good horse… but when you back him lo and behold Nijisnky on his first ever run just kicked his ass. That is the part that can kill you stone dead every time because unlike the jumps the prices mostly mean very little.
Then of course you get 10 30 runner handicaps on the same Saturday and 70% of the runners have you thinking where the hell did you sprout from. That very rarely happens over the jumps to me and I am sure even less to you.
I reckon the only way to win on the flat is to combine form video and prices and back in only the best races.
I have noticed is the flat place market offers better opportunities than the jumps market does. That’s most likely due to the fact the layers are as much in the dark about what’s what as the punters are.
On a general point as to whether the formbook is worth anything, I would just make the comment that Timeform’s race readers over the years have made a pretty accurate assessment of our horses’ performances. As a result, I have confidence in relying on the accuracy of Timeform’s comments on other horses.
The trick to using a formbook is identifying the important pieces of form and ignoring the runs where the horse wasn’t able to show its true merit (for whatever reason).
Just curiosity Tuffers….if you selected horse A towin a race but then read Timeform’s analysis and they said horse B would win what would you do?
1. Back your own selection
2. Back their selection?
3. Not have a bet?
Over the flat season, don’t really bet properly, just do combinations of jockeys/horses/connections that I follow, and do generally seen ‘mug punter’ bets. Yankee/Ew L15/31/63 with say Robert Winston rides in the north, Hanagan, Moore, Murtagh, Hayley Turner etc.
Form as seen in Both this years English and Irish 2000 Guineas seems irrelevant.
The Flat is like looking for your keys in the back garden by the light of a thunderstorm at night.
Someone mentioned Veitch’s book. There is nothing in that vainglorious rubbish to teach anyone anything beyond one priceless aphorism: remember, you are betting on animals running across a field.
He refuses to reveal anything more than: look out for underappreciated performances. No ****, sherlock.Just curiosity Tuffers….if you selected horse A towin a race but then read Timeform’s analysis and they said horse B would win what would you do?
1. Back your own selection
2. Back their selection?
3. Not have a bet?
Timeform (other than the Freeform which I don’t rate) don’t actual say what they think will win. They give each horse a rating but that isn’t the same as saying the top rated will win under any conditions. The rating just gives an indication of which horse they feel is best given optimum conditions. It’s then the job of the form student to establish which horse(s) will be best suited by conditions (including the likely shape of the race) and make a subjective judgment about the most likely winner.
Formbook Einsteins generally form the same opinion over a period of time.
Formbook Einsteins set the prices.
Therein lies the problem for formbook Einsteins.
Form study is an "inexact science" Cav.
Most scientists will be of the same opinion as to which horse has the "best chance of winning". It doesn’t really matter.
However, us scientists will come up withdifferent
conclusions as to who the "value" is. We’ve just got to be right enough times to make a profit.
Value Is EverythingHow much of your betting involves taking early prices, Ginge?
Most of it Cav, I’d estimate "Early prices" (as in night before or morning) at least around 80%.
Then there’s what I’d describe as "board prices", later on in the day (if something goes out to a "value" price. Plus on course bets if I’ve seen something in the paddock or "top up" (adding to the early price stake), or late saver bets.
If we’re taking out smaller bets (only counting bets to win the most money) "early prices" would be in the 90%’s for my "main bets".
Value Is EverythingThats my point Ginge.
"Getting on" to meaningful amounts becomes the problem because fellow formbook experts will
generally
come to the same conclusions as yourself and the prices disappear.
The people laying the bets know who the formbook experts are.
It is a problem Cav, though not a massive one as yet. I have one bookmaker who always slashes my intended stakes. One that has to go to their "trader" for a "yes, no, or you can have…", and another two that can refuse the odd bet.
I am loathed to take my money out of a few accounts, think if I do they’ll close them. Don’t get me wrong, I am not a real heavy hitter. It may well be some bookmakers are keeping me on to tip them off who the "clever money"
will be on; as a lot of my bets are placed the evening or night before a race.One bookmaker in particular invariably reduces their odds immediately after I place a bet, even before I can get on my DLAP thread to tip it up.
It may also help that not many of my main bets are short prices, so when I win the bookmaker will usually also win (over all) on the race.
I’ve increased stakes recently, it may become a bigger problem in time or with bigger stakes. Might have to change to mostly betfair in mornings.
However, even other knowledgeable punters I know who get the same form book as me often come to a completely different "value" selection.
Value Is EverythingI’ve increased stakes recently, it may become a bigger problem in time or with bigger stakes. Might have to change to mostly betfair in mornings.
It will definitely become a bigger problem and Betfair in the morning is generally a waste of time. If the long price liquidity dosent get you, the robots will undercut you every step of the way. When the liquidity does arrive the Timeform rating, sutiable-going and trainer-form prices are long gone.
Tough game.
I’m intrigued to see how this new Betfair fixed odds platform will operate.
To answer the original question…
It is recognised that bookmakers odds compilers are very knowledgeable people. So why not use them?
What a punter could do (without the need of a form book) is to use bookmakers odds-compilers as your own private tipster/s.eg.
Bated Breath
was an early price of
5/2
with Ladbrokes on Saturday when business opened, yet
4/1
with William Hill.
5/2 represents a "fair" percentage price of 28.6%.
4/1 represents a "fair" percentage price of 20%.
A difference of8.6%
(28.6 – 20 = 8.6)
In a competitive market a bookie won’t add more than a 3% mark up (rarely even that much) on an individual, fairly exposed 5 year old racehorse. So if a punter takes 3% off the price of 5/2 (28.6 – 3 = 25.6%).
25.6% in "fair" odds terms is between 11/4 (26.7%) and 3/1 (25%).So if Ladbrokes odds compiler believes the fair odds for Bated Breath is
less than 3/1
, then
Ladbrokes
odds compiler believes
William Hill
s price of
4/1
is an
outstanding
bet.
Value Is Everything
will be on; as a lot of my bets are placed the evening or night before a race.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.