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Hi all, eight races today and perhaps the best betting card since the first day. Very competitive; the favourites are beatable on paper and there are some nice horses running.
3.45 This could be run at Royal Ascot; I watched Championship Point (NAP) last time and he ran really well – as if he needed the run. These are ideal conditions; both his big victories have come off a good gallop and with sweeping runs down the outside. He is drawn 10 today and there is pace in the race. Holland rides. This is his third run after a break and the opposition have flaws, some substantial.
5.45 Final Verse might not enjoy racing in Dubai – that’s the risk – but he’s 50/1 and beat Metropolitan Man last year at Newmarket- and that one is fancied in the next Listed race. Again, this is the third run after a break (the first was on dirt which didn’t suit) and the change of scenery might suit. The price is huge for a horse with such substantial backclass, including a Guineas sixth. Wise Dennis was mighty impressive last time, but this one wouldn’t be in the same class as the selection.
6.15 Fiesta Lady and Cocoa Beach should have this between them, but how good is this South American form – and how long does the form wave last? The former declined from his first run in the UAE Guineas and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the latter do the same here. In third was Love of Dubai (nb) who seems to have been brought on steadily and was noted running on when everything was over last time behind the hotpots. It can’t win on form, but it’s trained by Clive Brittain, ran sixth in a UK Group race on ground which didn’t suit, is highly regarded, and better still is currently 25/1. Looks an EW bet to nothing to me.
Anyroad, the best of luck. Is anyone having a dabble over there today?
Cheers, Invisible!
Wow. Even taking into account the lack of pace in the first two furlongs, that was a poor performance. Never put in the race at any stage. Are there any more frustrating trainers than Mick Channon? I don’t think so. Two to go.
Love Of Dubai was very good, Max.
But – never go under-rating South American formlines again!
These horses will never hit the big time on the lush, prestige turf events in Europe and Asia, but they are to be feared in the Middle East, the United States and Australia.
Last night, a former Chilean Derby winner won at the Moonee Valley meeting and is a strong chance to win the Group 2 Adelaide Cup.
They breed some very imposing types in South America.
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