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so nobody bets on the draw and no one has noticed the affect of the draw over the last few meetings at thirsk? racing people ? i don’t think so.
Perhaps if you’d be kind enough to offer your view of things, there would be some basis for others to join in. As it is you just come across as an idle punter wanting others to do your research for you so you can benefit from their work.
idle punter !!! i don’t think so. i spend hours and hours researching and reading form. and certainly do not expect anyone to do it for me. up until this season high draws held sway on the straight course at thirsk, but suddenly over the first 3 meetings the far side (low) has not only had the advantage but by a massive 20 lengths or so.
has no-one else noticed?Don’t bet on the flat especially not small courses so sadly can’t help but good luck.
One thing I have noticed is that the draw bias on a few tracks isn’t what it used to be. For example the famous Beverley sprint bias seems weaker than it was and at Ripon I don’t think there is a bias in sprints at present. My guess is that the staff nowadays try to reduce biases if they can in order to make races fairer. Presumably they do this by watering or some other technique. Maybe at Thirsk they over-corrected.
About time they did something about Lingfields straight turf course, it makes for extremely tedious viewing.
Kasparov – thanks for your input.
my study shows there is a draw bias at Ripon, but it depends on the number of runners. for example on the straight course in a 12 runner race those drawn low are in the centre of the course and those drawn high have the advantage of the stands rail. but when there are 16 or more runners then those drawn low can get over to the far rail and then have their draw bias. also at Ripon low drawn on the round course do well, especially front runners.
i agree about courses trying to eliminate the bias, i notice they tend to move the stalls about either centre or to the other side, if there is room. this is not usually mentioned on the racing page.
Terry,
I presume your original post is a reference to horses winning on the far side (low numbers in the draw) in big fields on the sprint course.
Not sure how long you’ve been using this draw based approach, but far side winners in big field sprints at Thirsk in the early part of the season is nothing new. I can certainly recall examples in the 90’s, when I’d have been taking more interest in this type of race than nowadays and can point you at two examples. Check out the races won by Ocker and Swino in April 1998/99. At the time I felt the stand side bias only operated for sure when the ground had dried out enough to require the course to start watering.
i looked back in my database for those races, one was run on good and one on good/soft, but the times suggest they were 5 seconds or so slower than expected. incidentally, in one of those races those drawn high were all massive prizes, suggesting the draw was expected or all the crap horses were drawn high.
i was really saying that the races this season have had an unexpected and massive low draw bias. however given this knowledge for last week’s meeting and having watched the early races i was able to back the two winners of the 8.05 and 8.35 at 12/1 and 22/1. however in future when there may only be one race on the card on the straight course do i bet high or low ?
Incidentally it looks like the York draw bias is the wrong way round today as well. The handicap favourites were drawn high but the winners and placers were drawn low.
The groundstaff have put in a great deal of work this year following a dreadfully wet winter which saw the whole Knavesmire under water for about two weeks from Boxing Day and intermittently again afterwards. Considering this the racing line is in remarkably good condition; however, it wouldn’t be in the least bit surprising if it rides differently from the usual for a while
The infield and the rest of the Knavesmire outwith the track is in as bad a condition this Spring as I and many others can recall
yes, i noticed the straight course ran centre to low instead of centre to high, but low on the shorter round course may pay off, as the two winners yesterday were both drawn low
so, thirsk again tomorrow. forecast going good/firm. anyone any views to bet high or low ?
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