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2m2f around Auteil in heavy ground doesn’t necessarily guarantee a stamina test; only if the race is run at a good pace, which French races rarely are.
Is that true? Sure we arent getting confused with grp one flat races reet?
Serious question though. Auteil racing that ive seen (not loads admittedly) didnt strike me as being a crawl. The size of teh feilds are usually pretty decent too
Why all the doubt about Master Minded’s stamina? The horse won over two miles-two in very testing conditions at Auteuil.
That’s why you have to doubt if stamina was the primary factor behind his capitulation at Aintree.
2m2f around Auteil in heavy ground doesn’t necessarily guarantee a stamina test; only if the race is run at a good pace, which French races rarely are.
Aintree however, for all it’s a sharp course, was run at a truly exceptional pace, and I’d rather take Ruby’s word that stamina was the problem, than FoF’s who says it wasn’t.
If it looks like a duck………?I think you are referring to my post about Aintree Reet? I actually never said stamina wasn’t a problem.What I said was Master Minded was in trouble wellbefore stamina came into play. Youwould expect any horsewho gets 2 miles well at Cheltenham would get what? 2m 1f to 2m3f without to much trouble would be a fair guess? Master Minded started to come under presssure fully 3 fences from home when beaten by VPU and that is whatmakes methink there was more to it than merely stamina……Young horse!! could have beeen over the top? Could be he just isn’t everything he is cracked up to be?
In his favour is the fact he impressed so much in his race before Cheltenham that I for one could not see him being beaten at Cheltenham. But his performance then was only part of it. It was what he was running against that swayed me to get stuck in. I honestly think the QMCC was a desperate event and as his previous event was against the same horse VPU.
Master Minded himslef is a very impressive individual to look at but Tidal Bay is not VPU and this taleneted young horse won’t go down without a fight.
The way I see this match is if Master Minded is as good as they think he will steadily increases the pace from about 5 out and between 3 and 2 out it will be all over
If the two are together coming off a normal pace and the race doesn’tstart in earnest until the third last or later Tidal Bay will leave him standing.
I doubt if Master Minded has the pace to get rid of Tidal Bay like he did VPU and the most likely outcome is he MM will fold like a pack of cards when he gets into a fight.
I take the converse view to the right honourable Fists.
I think Tidal Bay needs further these days and may struggle for toe once AP shouts GO !
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Fist
What I said was Master Minded was in trouble well before stamina came into play. Youwould expect any horsewho gets 2 miles well at Cheltenham would get what? 2m 1f to 2m3f without to much trouble would be a fair guess?
Not necessarily. Master Minded is all about speed, and had his previous 3 races sewn up well before the distance. That isn’t the same as finding extra over half-a-mile further.
Fwiw, I believe Tidal Bay needs further to be at his best, and suspect his jumping may let him down Saturday, when AP serves it up to him.MM was also second in a G1 2m 5f Chase at Auteuil in soft ground to the horse currently regarded as the best 2m 5f+ chaser in France (said Chaser was Champion at 3, 4 and won the Jousselin at 5).
First of all, everyone should remember 2 things…
1. Tidal Bay is an extremely impressive Arkle winner. You don’t do that when you need further. He may stay further, but he doesn’t need it.
2. I’m not sure where people are getting this idea that Tidal Bay will struggle with the Railway fences. The reason they are renowned is their proximity to each other and the fact they put jumping under a severe test, especially in a top 2 mile chase. You cannot win an Arkle, especially as he did, without being able to jump accurately and at speed.
I also strongly agree with pretty much everything TDK has posted on this thread.
Tidal Bay 7/2
The thought of Tidal bay attacking the 3 railway fences makes me realise
as much as i think he is potentially top class preferably over 21/2m+ i cant back him at Sandown, i fear there may be nothing left of the fences if he starts ploughing his way round!Reason is Salse that its the loss of rhytmn. They come so quickly and at such pace. Seen many a runner "lose it" at that end of the course
And even the trainer has mentioned the famous fences, (although he probably read my post first) so better ask him
Was Tidal Bay’s best round of jumping not when encountering a fast pace at Cheltenham? His jumping or ability to prove fully effective at 2m really aren’t issues for me.
I’m a bit confused by the statement that Tidal Bay has shown "jaw-dropping" ability.
As stated above defeats of Krugyrova and Takeroc don’t drop my jaw!
Colin
I guess the term ‘jaw-dropping ability’ is open to interpretation.
I’ve considered this horse a special talent for some time and, like I’ve already said, to race fifteen times against the level of competition he has and only lose five times, just once being beaten further then half a length and never finishing outside the first two, is very impressive. His Arkle victory was an amazing effort – embarrassingly easy.
If Master Minded is as good as what we witnessed in the Queen Mother, he’ll take some stopping, especially with everything in his favour and, conversely, against his main rival.
Of the five occasions he’s competed in this country, he’s looked more than beatable on four of them. His entire reputation is based on one effort. Taking nothing away from one of the great performances of modern times, especially that of a 5YO. Horses that age should be struggling to win a Champion Hurdle, not annihilating the reigning champion in a Champion Chase.
However, much was made about the state of the ground at The Festival. I can understand why Fist considered Voy Por Ustedes form to be ‘unreliable’ earlier in the thread. To go down 5L to MM in the Game Spirit, then be trounced by the same rival 19L when you’re 6lbs better off and a dual festival winner doesn’t make sense.
The same could be said about Tidal Bay’s festival effort, except that he became one of only two horses to complete the Cheltenham / Aintree double.
I just think this Tidal Bay is like nothing he’s ever faced before, and vice versa. Such a fascinating contest.
I think people can pick and choose which horses they like to judge form, depending on their opinion of the race. I’ve detailed which horses TB has defeated throughout his career in my original post.
Kruguyrova. Talented mare. Beaten just two lengths by Big Bucks last season before beating some good horses home in the Arkle, including Noland.
Takeroc. Had Katchit behind when a good second at Wincanton on his last start. There’s a big difference between an Aintree chase and a Wincanton hurdle, but there’s no escaping his talent and he was unbeaten over fences prior to Aintree.
I’m really looking forward to Saturday and I’ll be ecstatic if Master Minded puts in another virtuoso performance. I was present when he won the Queen Mother and, from my perspective, it was too unbelieveable to fully appreciate at the time.
I just think he’s worth opposing with Tidal Bay, a horse who I’ve been loyal to for quite some time.
May the best horse win.
I think you need to get your calculator out, Bos.
Master Minded was never in any danger whatsoever at Sandown, Newbury or Cheltenham, and fell when in contention on his first UK start.
"Of the five occasions he’s competed in this country, he’s looked more than beatable on four of them. His entire reputation is based on one effort…"
I take it you didn’t see his victory over Voy Por at Newbury. I was at the course that day and the horse’s appearance in the paddock was literally breat-taking, he looked magnificent. The distance he won by that day may only have been five lengths but I came away from the course thinking of him as an absolute banker for the Champion Chase.
He lived up to my expectations at Chelters but I can’t explain or understand his defeat at Aintree.
There was something there besides lack of stamina, I had the impression that there was something wrong physically. I just wonder if they have sorted it out.
I’ll accept that Tidal Bay won well at Cheltenham and Liverpool but I ask again, is that form anywhere near that displayed by Master Minded at Newbury and at The Festival?
Colin
The only form line I can find between the 2 is Mahogany Blaze. Beaten 21 lengths (ish) in the Arkle by TB (level weights) and beaten 26 when conceding 1lb to MM in the Game Spirit.
As we all know, there was a huge advancement in that form by the time Cheltenham came around (and it was that, not a regression by VPU). On Game Spirit form, MM probably still has a few lbs in hand of TB’s Arkle form (his best ever, I’m sure few would disagree). However, if he can produce anything near his Cheltenham form then TB simply has no chance. Fantastic horse, dont get me wrong, I’m hugely excited by him but I think that if MM is even 90% ready then this is a no-contest. I know these form lines never hold true 100% but they do hold some truths.
And there people need to forget the ‘novice’ tag that TB has just shaken off … compared to MM he’s a hardened vet, both in terms of age and experience
I think you need to get your calculator out, Bos.
Master Minded was never in any danger whatsoever at Sandown, Newbury or Cheltenham, and fell when in contention on his first UK start.
Don’t know what a calculator has to do with it, but my own two eyes will suffice.
Grass, Colin. You can’t compare the four occasions I’ve mentioned to his Festival romp. He won impressively on the other two (from five) occasions, yes, but he didn’t look unbeatable.
His entire repuatation, rating and odds for this race are still based on one effort. If he is that good, given the conditions, Tidal Bay will do very well to beat him. Judging by his other efforts, Tidal Bay has a decent chance of beating him.
Bos, if Master Minded hadn’t run at Aintree, he would be about a 3’s-on chance on Saturday.
His current odds are a reflection of that run – not his Cheltenham effort.
You seem determined to follow TB over a cliff, which is fair enough, but your arguments about Master Minded’s form definitely lack coherency. You’re not trying to convince yourself, I hope?
Bos, if Master Minded hadn’t run at Aintree, he would be about a 3’s-on chance on Saturday.
His current odds are a reflection of that run – not his Cheltenham effort.
Mmm, I doubt that. Many are still crowing about his QM effort like the Aintree defeat never happened. Most consider it excusable because of MM apparent ‘stamina issues’.
For example, look at the article on RP online today, where Jack The Giant (injured) and Jericho III were among those to have ‘ducked’ a potential clash with ‘the brilliant Queen Mother Champion Chase winner.’
Nothing about Tidal Bay. Nothing about ‘questions to answer after Aintree’.
Many still look at him and think of Cheltenham. How can a horse, beaten 18L on his last start, be an odds-on shot against a talented horse like Tidal Bay?
His price is a reflection of his Cheltenham romp.
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