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Seagull,
I normally do put the profit and loss figures up, but this time I was waiting for a week or so to give the figures some meaning.
They are:
Stakes 2pts Profit 11.5pts
Edit: Now Stakes 4pts Profit 9.5pts[/color:2y9f74jd]
Just out of interest, today’s racing has several decent handicaps which on any ordinary weekday would have probably been the day’s best handicap race. For those races, the system would have selected the following horses:Ascot 4.10 Lord Henry, Haydock 2.10 Temoin, 3.25 Mister Potter, Uttoxeter 3.50 Patman Du Charmil, Wincanton 2.05 Pretty Star.
Edit: Of these, Lord Henry won at 10/3, Pretty Star was a NR and the other three lost, so a slight plus.[/color:2y9f74jd]
I don’t count these as system bets, but their whereabouts in the results section should provide a reality check.Hi Artemis,
Yes Philson Run is the reason I asked. When I checked yesterday, Sporting Life had them both in at 8/1 and Racing Post were still to publish forecast sp.
Good luck for today
Sunday 17 February
I’ve trawled right through all the meetings(Navan, Towcester and Southwell) but there is no qualifying selection in any of the handicaps. Finding horses with a 20% strike rate down amongst the moderate(even decent) handicappers and no recent wins isn’t easy. So no selection today.
Monday 18 February.
If the Carlisle meeting gets the all clear, which seems unlikely, the system selection is Silver Knight in the 3.10 Meeting Abandoned[/color:3jxi2i14]
Tuesday 19 February
No qualifiers today. If Sedgefield does go ahead, you could argue that Film Festival(2.30) would qualify by default, there being no other qualifying horses in any of the more valuable handicaps around the country. However, this low grade amateur rider’s race isn’t the type of race the system can be applied to.
Artemis,
This is exactly why it gets so difficult writing system rules.
You could easily get 3 or 4 or more Handicaps on a Saturday that are more valuable than anything during the week. I think you’re right to stick to the principle of the thing though and not put up a selection, just because it happens to be (say) the only race left after abandonments.
I think my basement is a top rated RPR of 90+ on the flat and 120+ over the jumps. These are fairly average races and you may need to drop to that level during bad weather, but you will not find many qualifiers in these races, so they tend to rule themselves out.
Although reluctant to descend further down the ratings, the system rules are still applicable, strictly speaking.
I know what you mean by difficulty in drafting rules to cover all eventuallities. This system could be read to consider just the highest value handicap, no qualifier, no bet. But, as you say, it’s the principle and the spirit of the thing that matters.
- Total Posts 84
Hi Artemis,
Two questions, not too silly, I hope: –
1. Are you talking about all types of racing, ie flat turf, all weather and national hunt?
2. How do you define a horse that is "properly in the handicap" (or otherwise?
Kind Regards,
Brian
bcsim99,
Yes, all types of racing, but I think it will only be reliable at the upper levels of ability. Among the lower ratings bands there are literally hundreds of horses(maybe a few thousand) who wouldn’t qualify under the 20% wins/runs rule.
A horse is properly in the handicap if it carries its allotted weight and is not ‘out of the handicap’. A horse is out of the handicap when it carries the specified minimum weight for the race and that weight is above its allotted weight. Horses which are out of the handicap are shown at the foot of the racecard in the Racing Post.
Thursday 21 February
At Nad Al Sheba, the handicaps are of equal value, so out of a possible 3 qualifiers(2 runners and 1 reserve), I’ve gone for the longest price.
5.15 Mulaqat 6th/16 @16/1[/color:64zwvwjz]
The other two were Ekhtiaar(3.40) and Ripples Maid, reserve(4.45)
There was also a possibility at Clonmel, Wheresben(4.55).
Ekhtiaar unplaced, Ripples Maid 2nd/10 15/2, Wheresben NR
Total to date
Stakes 5pts Win 8.5 pts[/color:64zwvwjz]Friday February 22nd
Quite a few qualifiers at Nad Al Sheba today.Nothing anywhere else.
3.05 Loyalist 3rd/10 10/1[/color:2d96kzpv]
3.40 Pearly King 6th/6 16/1[/color:2d96kzpv]
Mutassallil won/7 7/1[/color:2d96kzpv]4.15 Law Lord 3rd/10 6/5fav[/color:2d96kzpv]
4.45 Davidoff
Championship Point 5th/10 14/1[/color:2d96kzpv]
Mezel(reserve) NR[/color:2d96kzpv]6.45 Imperial Star 2nd/4 15/8fav[/color:2d96kzpv]
All handicaps are of equal value. The best price available is about Davidoff and Championship Point (both forecast at 14/1 in the RP), so I’m going for the highest weighted,
System selection.
4.45 Davidoff 7th/10 14/1
Totals to date
Stakes 6pts Profit 7.5pts[/color:2d96kzpv]
Saturday 23 February
Selection
Kempton 3.15 Ungaro Fell/15 5/1[/color:2w5tcfxa]There are a few other decent handicaps with qualifiers.
Newcastle 3.35 Eric’s Charm, King Killone, Royal Rosa.
4.35 Marcel
Lingfield 4.45 EktimaalNone of the above got into the frame[/color:2w5tcfxa].
Sunday 24 February
Exeter 4.00 Jarro 5th/7 16/1
Totals
Stakes 8pts Profit 5.5pts[/color:1st6y1dp]
Wednesday 27 February
Folkestone 4.10 Pass Me By 7th/9 12/1[/color:em2ku9xy]
Other qualifiers:
Southwell 3.50 Red Scally, Kempton 9.20 Raza Cab.Red Scally was a NR and Raza Cab was unplaced.
Totals Stakes 9pts Profit 4.5pts[/color:em2ku9xy]
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