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Yes Aston, and the upshot is that, although spells like the current one are frustrating, in the long run we are definitely better off going straignt win, there aren’t nearly enough placed to make ew betting worthwile.
Rich<br>
Hi Rich
Losing runs are part of the furniture in the systems world, especially if your average odds are relatively high.<br>Tipsters who select fancied horses at prices below 5/1 often have losing runs of 20+, so keep the faith- you are DEFINITELY on to something with your system. I would be fascinated to know how it works as I’ve fiddled around for years without getting anywhere near your results.
25 May Stake Plan bets 4 points<br>4.50 Lingfield Light Brigade 10/13 @ 6/1<br>7.05 Sedgefield Northern Echo 8/11 @ 10/1<br>8.20 Bangor Dardanus F/7 @ 3/1<br>8.50 Bangor Impish Jude 4/8 @ 7/1<br>9.05 Sedgefield Mick Murphy 4/6 @ 7/1
May<br>21 winners from 173 selections – SR 12.14%<br>LSP: 17.33  LSO: 34.50  LBF: 117.90 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 50.83  SSO: 85.50  SBF: 236.38 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>36 winners from 278 selections – SR 12.95%<br>LSP: 35.33  LSO: 63.75  LBF: 193.86 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 110.83  SSO: 166.00  SBF: 423.53 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Yet more woe today, didn’t even get close once!
Rich<br>
Really don’t know what’s happening at the moment Rich.
RNF and BB go for outsiders and they’ve been losing recently, I run another system that goes after favourites and that’s been losing and a 3rd that’s ratings based and that’s down as well this month. All of which had been going great guns in the first 4 months of the year.
Makes you wonder what the bloody hell is winning at the moment!
KM
I’m going to pop my head round the door to say that this has been going great guns lately and is something I am following with great interest – it seems it would be particularly profitable using the exchanges for the better odds on offer.
In terms of recent results, I’ve had a crappy three days when I think everything with a chance has come either 2nd or 3rd, and that was pretty much summed up with the performance of the likes of Spectrometer last night!
Kevin
I’ve been having a look at the results that Rich has put up on the forum  and in line with some work I have done in the past with analysis of results may have an idea which puts things in perspective.
With most long shot systems the s/r and price are critical for success, but also from a system point of view the horses that are just beaten, are to.
For example if you look at May 2003 the s/r was 10.3%, 1.8% lower than currently for this month, but did have 3 very big priced winners compared to the one so far in May (however there are still 6 days to go for this month).
Looking at Oct shows an excellent s/r but lower points profit  than say Jan 04, which had a couple of high priced winners.
There have been some very very unlucky results for the selections as well over the last couple of weeks that would have changed the whole profit figures for the month. The laws of average do tend to work over the long term and therefore we will have months in the future (and there were probably months in the past) that will have the selections winning by a sh in a few races at excellent prices.
With regard to SP I have looked in the past at Massey and the 5/4 system and found there is very little threads such as these have on the price of horses due to the massive market compared to the number of people backing selections. If you consider the vast number of tipping services suggesting horses against these selections for example, plus the on course market and the relatively low stakes per person due to the s/r and potential long losing runs there is very little effect on the SP. There will be some that go in and some that go out.
Hope that is of some interest
(Edited by paul66 at 9:09 am on May 26, 2004)
Surely we’ll get something today!!!
Stake Plan bets 5 points<br>2.25 Lingfield Michabo 12/1<br>3.15 Fontwell Smart Guy 10/1<br>3.15 Fontwell Red Alert Man 20/1<br>4.35 Cartmel Marrel 9/1<br>4.35 Cartmel Major Shark 7/1<br>4.35 Cartmel Bamford Castle 12/1<br>4.45 Lingfield Bamboozled 8/1<br>5.20 Lingfield Didnt Tell My Wife 7/1<br>6.40 Goodwood Clinet 16/1<br>6.55 Ripon Shatin Special 6/1<br>7.25 Ripon Rouge Blanc 10/1
Be Lucky!
Rich
26 May Stake Plan bets 5 points<br>2.25 Lingfield Michabo 4/8 @ 14/1<br>3.15 Fontwell Smart Guy 3/7 @ 12/1<br>3.15 Fontwell Red Alert Man PU/7 @ 16/1<br>4.35 Cartmel Marrel 2/12 @ 6/1<br>4.35 Cartmel Major Shark 1/12 @ 9/1 – 14.00 on Betfair!<br>4.35 Cartmel Bamford Castle PU/12 @ 16/1<br>4.45 Lingfield Bamboozled 7/10 @ 8/1<br>5.20 Lingfield Didnt Tell My Wife 6/11 @ 4/1<br>6.40 Goodwood Clinet 2/11 @ 16/1<br>6.55 Ripon Shatin Special 8/13 @ 17/2<br>7.25 Ripon Rouge Blanc 7/9 @ 12/1
May<br>22 winners from 184 selections – SR 11.96%<br>LSP: 16.33  LSO: 34.50  LBF: 120.25 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 45.83  SSO: 85.50  SBF: 248.13 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>37 winners from 289 selections – SR 12.80%<br>LSP: 34.33  LSO: 63.75  LBF: 196.11 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 105.83  SSO: 166.00  SBF: 435.28 (after 5% commission)<br><br>"A good second", I believe that’s how Clinet’s run was described, and it was indeed unfortunate to come up against such an improver. Still, we had a 9/1 winner earlier which was available at better so whilst we lost one point LSP we should all have made a little today. Available at 30.00 on Betfair, though, a win for Clinet would have made all the difference!!!
Rich<br>
Just the six for today
Stake Plan bets 6 points<br>2.20 Bath Grand Apollo 10/1<br>3.10 Newton Abbot Helvetius 9/2<br>4.40 Newton Abbot Polish Legend 9/1<br>6.05 Huntingdon Roman Rampage 14/1<br>7.30 Wetherby Waterspray 13/2<br>8.35 Wetherby Mister Chisum 6/1
Be Lucky!
Rich
27 May Stake Plan bets 6 points<br>2.20 Bath Grand Apollo 2/11 @ 20/1<br>3.10 Newton Abbot Helvetius PU/8 @ 7/2<br>4.40 Newton Abbot Polish Legend 1/8 @ 12/1 – 18.50 on Betfair!<br>6.05 Huntingdon Roman Rampage 6/7 @ 10/1<br>7.30 Wetherby Waterspray 4/5 @ 4/1<br>8.35 Wetherby Mister Chisum 10/13 @ 10/1
May<br>23 winners from 190 selections – SR 12.11%<br>LSP: 23.33  LSO: 43.50  LBF: 131.88 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 87.83  SSO: 139.50  SBF: 317.88 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>38 winners from 295 selections – SR 12.88%<br>LSP: 41.33  LSO: 72.75  LBF: 207.74 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 147.83  SSO: 220.00  SBF: 505.03 (after 5% commission)<br><br>When the post rattled yet again with our fast finishing 20/1 shot in the opener and our fav was pulled up in the second, it was beginning to look like another one of those days (and we’ve had a few lately!). In the end we had to settle for just the one winner – but it was a nice one as Polish Legend won comfortably at 12/1. SSO is now within just 1.75 of its highest point, and given the good price I got on Betfair my bank is actually at its highest level now, which is pretty amazing considering the run we’ve been enduring! Just think where LSP & SSO would have been if Grand Appolo had got up!!!
And thank you all for your messages of support during the bad run, here’s to an end of month flourish!
Rich<br>
(Edited by RichNFord at 9:50 pm on May 27, 2004)
Great Stuff Rich-thanks for posting. I needed that winner yesterday.
Cheers,
<br>Paul
I knew in my water that yesterday was going to be a good day! Great stuff, well done Rich.
Only two qualifiers today, a bit of a comedown!
Stake Plan bets 1 point<br>4.50 York Astromancer 9/1<br>8.50 Towcester Tianyi 10/1
Be Lucky!
Rich
28 May Stake Plan bets 1 point<br>4.50 York Astromancer 3/14 @ 7/1<br>8.50 Towcester Tianyi 5/8 @ 4/1
May<br>23 winners from 192 selections – SR 12.11%<br>LSP: 21.33  LSO: 41.50  LBF: 129.88 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 85.83  SSO: 137.50  SBF: 315.88 (after 5% commission)
Overall<br>38 winners from 297 selections – SR 12.88%<br>LSP: 39.33  LSO: 70.75  LBF: 205.74 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 145.83  SSO: 218.00  SBF: 503.03 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Two losers, although I thought the first was going to win, but both heavily backed so no great loss, just means two points a selection for tomorrow now!
Rich<br>
Several big prices among the ten for today, could be a very good day if all goes to plan!
Stake Plan bets 2 points<br>1.35 Kempton Prairie Wolf 20/1<br>1.35 Kempton Tony Tie 12/1<br>2.55 Doncaster King Harson 7/1<br>5.45 Cartmel My Ace 5/1<br>6.20 Cartmel Littleton Valar 33/1<br>6.20 Cartmel Dante´s Honour 14/1<br>7.10 Lingfield Fearby Cross 12/1<br>7.45 Lingfield Sharplaw Destiny 6/1<br>7.45 Lingfield Clare Galway 33/1<br>8.50 Lingfield Innocent Rebel 14/1
Be Lucky!
Rich
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