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Hi All
Something I’ve been toying with for a while now, should produce good profits at around 15% SR, so big priced winners but therefore beware longish losing runs to be expected.
I’ll post to show all selections and results to LSP, LSO (SuperOdds) & LBF (Betfair) which will be LSO but incorporating Betfair if better odds were obtainable there. I have now also adjusted all posts to show SSP, SSO & SBF, which are using the following Staking Plan.
Basically I have been staking 1 point on day 1, if that is a losing day then 2 points the next day, then 3, 4, 5, etc. When we have a winning day we refer back to the last day that finished with a higher SSP, and the stake from that day is adopted as the new stake for tomorrow, and the pattern continues as before.
Of course, I must stress that staking plans on big SP / low SR systems such as this can be a touch high risk and you should assign an affordable bank of about 1000 points if you wish to adopt that strategy – the system is designed to produce an SP profit so many of you will prefer LSO or LBF, but I’ll post both anyway.
Apologies!!! There were two bugs in the VB program I wrote to sort out the selections which I have detailed with asterisks in the results posts. The effect was fairly minimal, but sorry for any inconvenience!
Be Lucky!
Rich
Monthly statistics (showing all double figure winners) ……
April 2004 (from the 13th)<br>15 winners from 105 selections – SR 14.29%<br>LSP: 18.00  LSO: 29.25  LBF: 75.96 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 60.00  SSO: 80.75  SBF: 177.15 (after 5% commission)<br>Penthouse Minstrel 10/1, Hasty Prince 10/1, Melaina 12/1
May 2004 *<br>26 winners from 216 selections – SR 12.04%<br>LSP: 33.83  LSO: 58.00  LBF: 163.98 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 112.33  SSO: 171.00  SBF: 373.33 (after 5% commission)<br>Moayed 25/1, Benbaun 10/1, First Centurion 11/1, Monksford 10/1, Quito 12/1, Vintage Premium 16/1, Celtic Mill 10/1, Polish Legend 12/1, Littleton Valar 22/1<br>* Also in May Wicked Nice Fella was a winning qualifier @ 17/2 which I somehow managed to miss out, so it is not included in the above results. It was the result of an error that won’t happen again!<br>
(Edited by RichNFord at 6:46 pm on May 31, 2004)
3.15 Exeter Sterling Dot Com 7/1<br>3.15 Exeter Walter´s Destiny 25/1<br>3.25 Newmarket Tedstale 20/1<br>4.25 Exeter Anzal 7/1<br>5.00 Exeter Always On The Line 7/1
Be Lucky!
Rich<br>
Looks like you are putting yourself in for plenty of work Rich, results for 3 different staking plans for a start, I think your tag line of ‘be lucky’ should be directed at yourself! :biggrin:
Seriously good luck with this it’s always nice to see a system with big prices, sadly too many bite the dust whilst enduring the ( inevitable ) long losing run.
13 April Stake Plan bets 1 point<br>3.15 Exeter Sterling Dot Com 5/10 @ 9/2<br>3.15 Exeter Walter´s Destiny 6/10 @ 14/1<br>3.25 Newmarket Tedstale 16/20 @ 33/1<br>3.40 Chepstow Dalcassian King 7/16 @ 22/1 *<br>3.40 Chepstow Tuxedo Junction PU/16 @ 5/1 *<br>4.15 Chepstow Minster Belle PU/10 @ 16/1 *<br>4.25 Exeter Anzal PU/7 @ 5/1<br>5.00 Exeter Always On The Line 3/9 @ 6/1<br>5.25 Chepstow Felix Darby 1/11 @ 13/2 *
* Due to an error in my program I missed out the four Chepstow qualifiers.
1 winner from 9 selections – SR 11.11%<br>LSP: -1.50  LSO: -1.00  LBF: -1.00 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: -1.50  SSO: -1.00  SBF: -1.00 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Well a fairly inauspicious start with 4 donkeys and one only slightly better, but as I said I would only ever expect about 1 in 7 to win so 0 from 5 isn’t the end of the world and there’s always another day tomorrow!
Cheers for your comments Snowman, I will endeavour to keep the thread going even in those inevitable losing runs. Speaking of which, since May 1st last year (up to last Friday) there have been 1584 selections, including four losing runs of 30 or more, the longest being 41. But if that’s the rough then the smooth would be 17 winners at 20/1 plus, including Quito (20/1) in the Ayr Gold Cup, Shooting Light (33/1) in the Aon Chase, and Maximize (40/1) & Made In Japan (20/1) from only three selections at this year’s Cheltenham, so they are worth waiting for!
As for the selection method, Artemis, well it’s something I’ve spent a fair amount of time on so if it’s all the same to forum members I’d rather keep that information to myself – at least for the time being.
Be Lucky!
Rich
(Edited by RichNFord at 8:29 pm on May 7, 2004)
Sorry for the delay today – there’s a fault on the phone line and I’ve had to go next door to post!
7 selections for Wednesday
2.00 Cheltenham Samuel Wilderspin 16/1<br>3.55 Beverley Auroville 16/1<br>3.55 Beverley Orion Express 10/1<br>4.05 Newmarket Relaxed 5/1<br>4.20 Cheltenham My Line 9/1<br>4.30 Beverley Melodian 10/1<br>4.55 Cheltenham Andreas 10/1
Be Lucky!
Rich<br>
14 April Stake Plan bets 2 points<br>2.00 Cheltenham Samuel Wilderspin PU/14 @ 12/1<br>3.55 Beverley Auroville 8/16 @ 22/1<br>3.55 Beverley Orion Express 6/16 @ 14/1<br>4.05 Newmarket Relaxed 1/17 @ 7/1 – 17.00 on Betfair!<br>4.20 Cheltenham My Line 1/10 @ 9/1 – 19.00 on Betfair!<br>4.30 Beverley Melodian 5/19 @ 7/1<br>4.55 Cheltenham Andreas NR
3 winners from 15 selections – SR 20.00%<br>LSP: 10.50  LSO: 12.50  LBF: 27.30 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 22.50  SSO: 26.00  SBF: 55.60 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Today started off where yesterday left off but a quick fire brace at 7s & 9s (much better available at BF in both cases) means we are nicely in profit now. And I thought just for a moment that Melodian was going to do the biz too, which really would have been the iceing on the cake!
Be Lucky!
Rich
(Edited by RichNFord at 8:31 pm on May 7, 2004)
Poxy phoneline still down at the office – sorry!
Nine for today…..
1.10 Newmarket Secret Place 12/1<br>1.25 Cheltenham Colourful Life 8/1<br>2.00 Cheltenham Penthouse Minstrel 20/1<br>2.35 Cheltenham Cool Spice 9/1<br>2.35 Cheltenham Nas Na Riogh 12/1<br>2.35 Cheltenham Kombinacja 14/1<br>4.40 Newmarket Tabadul 14/1<br>5.30 Ripon Yomalo 14/1<br>5.50 Southwell Scary Night 8/1
Be Lucky!
Rich<br>
15 April Stake Plan bets 1 point<br>1.10 Newmarket Secret Place 9/20 @ 25/1<br>1.25 Cheltenham Colourful Life 2/12 @ 8/1<br>2.00 Cheltenham Penthouse Minstrel 1/8 @ 10/1<br>2.35 Cheltenham Cool Spice 6/17 @ 11/2<br>2.35 Cheltenham Nas Na Riogh NR<br>2.35 Cheltenham Kombinacja 2/17 @ 12/1<br>4.40 Newmarket Tabadul NR<br>5.30 Ripon Yomalo 11/20 @ 25/1<br>5.50 Southwell Scary Night 7/9 @ 7/1
4 winners from 22 selections – SR 18.18%<br>LSP: 14.50  LSO: 17.50  LBF: 32.30 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 26.50  SSO: 31.00  SBF: 60.60 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Well just the one winner today but from seven runners that’s all I’d expect – and I’ll take ’em all day long at 10/1 !!! And if it hadn’t have been for a superb ride by Timmy Murphy on Silver Charmer, gunning everything down late from way back, we’d have been toasting a 12/1 winner with Kombinacja as well !!! Colourful Life also a runner up @ 8/1, but that one never really looked like it’d actually win.
On to tomorrow
Rich
(Edited by RichNFord at 8:33 pm on May 7, 2004)
Five for today, all this evening…..
5.35 Ayr Jaboune 7/1<br>5.55 Taunton Dalcassian Buck 20/1<br>6.10 Southwell Beauteous 7/1<br>6.55 Taunton Dual Star 20/1<br>7.55 Taunton French Direction 13/2
Be Lucky!
Rich<br>
16 April Stake Plan bets 1 point<br>5.35 Ayr Jaboune 7/10 @ 14/1<br>5.55 Taunton Dalcassian Buck PU/10 @ 11/1<br>6.10 Southwell Beauteous 1/8 @ 11/2<br>6.55 Taunton Dual Star 5/7 @ 20/1<br>7.55 Taunton French Direction UR/13 @ 7/1
5 winners from 27 selections – SR 18.52%<br>LSP: 16.00  LSO: 19.50  LBF: 34.30 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 28.00  SSO: 33.00  SBF: 62.60 (after 5% commission)<br><br>Well, four that were straight off Blackpool Sands but Beauteous won in some style and although at 11/2 the price was quite short (for this thread anyway!) it was enough to return another little bit of profit on the day.
On to the weekend!
Rich
(Edited by RichNFord at 8:34 pm on May 7, 2004)
Any one of the six will do me today…..
2.15 Newbury Mystic Man 25/1<br>2.40 Ayr Hersov 16/1<br>3.10 Ayr Copeland 10/1<br>5.10 Thirsk Mrs Spence 7/1<br>7.30 Wolverhampton Sabana 14/1<br>7.45 Nottingham Ask The Driver 14/1
Be Lucky!
Rich
17 April Stake Plan bets 1 point<br>2.15 Newbury Mystic Man 15/27 @ 33/1<br>2.40 Ayr Hersov PU/28 @ 16/1<br>3.10 Ayr Copeland 1/10 @ 8/1<br>5.10 Thirsk Mrs Spence 13/13 @ 12/1<br>7.30 Wolverhampton Sabana 6/13 @ 16/1<br>7.45 Nottingham Ask The Driver 2/13 @ 7/2 *
* The second and final bug in my program! Ask The Driver didn’t actually qualify.
6 winners from 32 selections – SR 18.75%<br>LSP: 20.00  LSO: 24.00  LBF: 38.80 (after 5% commission)<br>SSP: 32.00  SSO: 37.50  SBF: 67.10 (after 5% commission)<br><br>I’m actually a little bit annoyed with myself because Ask The Driver WASN’T actually a qualifier – my mistake, I put it up so it’ll go in the results.
However, I did say I’d be happy with one from the six and I hope you all enjoyed Copeland’s return to winning ways, it would have been bigger than 8/1 but for Westender’s withdrawal, but that’s still a bit more profit for us!
Until tomorrow then
Rich
(Edited by RichNFord at 8:36 pm on May 7, 2004)
In addition to Ask The Driver, I’ve just found another bug which missed out four qualifiers on the first day – one of which won at 13/2!!! I’ve updated the results.
I’m sure I’ve sorted it all out now!!!
Sorry!
Rich
(Edited by RichNFord at 8:38 pm on May 7, 2004)
Well we’ve got a hatfull today!!! Just as well I picked up on that last bug – would have missed two of them otherwise!
2.05 Carlisle Michaels Dream 14/1<br>2.40 Carlisle Red Brae 10/1<br>3.25 Wincanton Widemouth Bay 5/1<br>3.35 Stratford Skycab 7/1<br>3.35 Stratford Day Du Roy 11/2<br>3.35 Stratford Monte Cristo 16/1<br>4.10 Stratford Ballykettrail 11/2<br>4.25 Carlisle Copplestone 10/1<br>5.00 Carlisle Lethem Air 4/1<br>5.10 Wincanton Isam Top 14/1<br>5.20 Stratford Maniatis 13/2<br>5.45 Wincanton Murdinga 13/2
Be Lucky!
Rich
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