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I think Nayef is the most likely winner but I suspect that Balestrini might prove best of the younger generation. He was only just behind Norse Dancer at Epsom and to me he seems a true 10f horse whereas Norse Dancer may just be a horse without a distance. Best prices at present are 7/1 for ND and 16/1 Balestrini and at those odds I’d much rather be on O’Brien’s colt.
Double figure odds are available about Grandera at this moment on Betfair and Sporting Options, Flagship.
On his best form Grandera could beat the lot but I can’t trust him as far as I can throw him. I would have fancied Dutch Gold to run a big race but it looks like the rain hasn’t come for him. Islington is the one for me otherwise, and with Nayef there could be one hell of a race.
Best Eclipse I’ve seen since….2000….well, it still seems like ages ago!
The ‘value’ punter in me wants to go searching for a lively outsider in a competitive Group 1.
But I have to say 9/4 Nayef looks reasonable.
And if a lively outsider does become enticing I’d imagine we can snaffle up some fancy betfair prices on the day.
As my syndicate often remind me – ‘we can look too hard for value, when it’s staring us in the face.’
Looks a great race on paper. Also fantastic to see the Eclipse attract a field worthy of its status (there have been some pretty moderate renewals recently).
On the ‘downside’, I made a mental note to back Nayef, Islington, Norse Dancer and Falbrav the next time they ran – not sure betting 4 against the field is a very profitable idea so it may have to be a small investment on Norse Dancer (got a feeling he may turn out to be the best 3yo in Europe).
Flagship…by all means tell me it’s none of my business but is there any particular reason why you don’t have an internet account either with the conventional bookies or the exchanges? To me it would be like operating with one hand tied behind my back.
My favourite Norse Dancer story so far is the one where someone wrote to David Elsworth telling him the horse needed blinkers! Is that all he needs???!!
Still, at least his form was franked with Phoenix Reach winning at Newbury on Thursday night.
Thanks for that, Flagship. After the day I’ve had today – opposed two favourites both of which trotted up, backed two favourites both of which ran like drains – I’m beginning to see the merit in your approach.
When you’re hot, you’re hot…etc.
Coming back to tomorrow’s race and my view that Balestrini might prove best of the three-year-olds, I see that he’s now trading at 31/1 on Betfair with Norse Dancer at 6/1. This seems ludicrous to me as there wasn’t much between them in the Derby and I think Balestrini might just be better suited by this trip than ND.
Corals are betting on which of the three-year-olds will fare best in the race and go 11/8 Norse Dancer, 11/4 Hold That Tiger, 7/2 Balestrini, 6/1 Delsarte and 9/1 Dutch Gold. I’m tempted to back Balestrini. I just wish he was five times Norse Dancer’s price…
IMO this is a on horse race<br>1. NAYEF
Nayef has shown true consistent Group One form and in that respect he is the selection. Forget the argument about value because at 9/4 he is exceptional value.<br>Grandera has a lot to prove in terms of this year’s form and the stable’s form so he cannot be recommended.<br>Islington is a good mare but I cant see her or Falbrav turning around the form with Nayef. Although it may seem like Nayef has not improved much, the others have to improve to catch him. I truly believe that Nayef is the top older horse over 10f.
Of the rest 2 interest me Delsarte and Dutch Gold but its asking a lot for them to win but I expect them to put up a good show. LTO Delsarte 2nd in the King Edward VII in a very fast race while racing with the leaders, so must come into EW calcs. As does Dutch Gold who may have finished 4l behind the likes of Balestrani and Norse Dancer in the Derby but only lost 2nd place in the final furlong. Both will be suited by the easier ground and at 16/1 and 25/1 respectively do represent ew value.<br>A comment on <br>Norse Dancer has been flattered in running and should be priced up at 16/1 having run his best over 12f and now dropping back two furlongs. If he wins hats off to him but I can’t see this happening, he’ll be lucky to finish in the first 6. He is currently poor value. I can understand him finishing with purpose over a mile in the guineas but to do the same thing in Derby has me thinking he likes to run past beaten horses.
So I gunning for Nayef and hoping Mr Hills doesn’t fluff his lines again or starts to think Nayef has a ptoent turn a foot and he can settle him in midfield and quick up from here, if he does he will lose.
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Nayef looks a worthy fav with Balestrini looking too big also. Grandera has plenty of questions to answer.
(Edited by cormack15 at 2:06 am on July 5, 2003)
A word of warning about today’s ground. Based on yesterday’s times, there’s more give in it than the official going description would suggest. It was just on the soft side of good yesterday.
Some similar opinions bubbling away here –
Personally, I’m on Nayef, plus taken the silly odds on Balestrini and Victory Moon (so encouraged by your write up tdk!).
Should be one to enjoy anyway.
Alternatively how about Fallon riding though the card…!
The three-year-olds might not have been the cream of their crop, Ian, but they were a pretty representative bunch and not that far behind the best of their generation. I don’t think anybody would have predicted before the race that they would finish 9th-13th inclusive, beating only the two pacemakers. And the reaction of the bookies is to shorten Alamshar for the King George? Hmm…
After the sparkling effort of the mighty Norse Dancer yesterday will Richard Quinn’s Epsom ride be viewed any differently – after all, on both occasions he made up a lot of ground quickly only to empty. Get the blinkers on him and do it quick. 6/1. Pah.
Did Nayef have a harder race in the Eclipse than Alamshar in the Irish Derby? Not that I could see. They have respectively 21 and 27 days to "get over" their races if indeed they need getting over. If Nayef was mine nothing would stop me aiming him at Ascot. It would be stupid to say that Alamshar and Kris Kin couldn’t beat him but the evidence at the moment suggests that his form is better than theirs.
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