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Grade 1 for Arkle horses in Leopardstown on 26th December.
Mengli Khan the favourite after impressing in his Beginners Chase. I like Voix Du Reve who beat Hardline 7L and Cadmium by 9L in his Beginners Chase. Hardline has since hacked up, beating Us and Them by 10L. The form from Mengli Khan’s visually impressive debut over fences isn’t quite as hot; he beat Forge Meadow by 10L and she has since been smashed in a Mares Chase by Camelia De Cotte by 23L.
Mengli Khan 4/5 favourite with Voix Du Reve availabe at 4/1
Hardline and Le Richbourg are also entered. Real Steel and Cilaous Emery also in for Mullins but they havn’t been out yet so I’d say it’s unlikely they’ll run although you never know
I think this will cut up rightly, with as you say a few not even made it to the track as yet.
Voix Du Reve seems to have taken to fences well, and the prices i can see your argument. I would be inclined to say class-wise MK should be a fair bit better than him (obvious) but if they go a good pace MK might be found wanting due to a lack of experience.
He also had a strange experience at Leopardstown last year+ who knows that could come back and haunt him.
Le Richbourg sort of surprised me LTO in that he ran so well- yes he was priced to run that sort of race, but i didn’t expect it.
I would say that’s the best form on offer, albeit not at 2miles + i think he’ll do just fine back at 2miles, and i’d happily chance him at the current price of 7s..Footpad, Min + Douvan have won the last 3 renewals….doubt anything of that level is in here.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!The novice chase divisions haven’t really caught fire yet this season but Winter Escape has impressed me more than most in winning a beginner’s chase in Galway (2m 2f) and then a Grade 3 in Cork (2m 4f), and I have had him in mind for this race since that win. The only thing holding me back from getting financially involved was his entry in the Grade 1 novice chase at Limerick but he has been scratched from that and I’ve taken the 16/1 about him here (each way, 3 places).
Most years I would be looking for something with Grade 1 novice hurdle form in a race like this (Mengli Khan is the only horse here who has that) but this doesn’t look the strongest renewal and I would rather be a Winter Escape backer at 16/1 than a Mengli Khan backer at 4/5.
Some horses improve for fences and others never quite reach the same level of form achieved over hurdles, but I had a look at the hurdles ratings of those above Winter Escape in the market here, as an indicator of general ability:
Mengli Khan 150 (4/5)
Voix Du Reve 146 (7/2)
Winter Escape 141 (16/1)
Le Richebourg 140 (6/1)All the above have made bright starts to their fencing careers so I see no reason for the price disparity between Winter Escape and the others.
For a horse that seems to have been around for a long time, he has only had 10 runs and since the move to Aidan Howard he now seems to be fulfilling the promise he showed when racking up three wins in his first three starts.
Le Richebourg could be the value here at a general 5/1. Last seasons novice form (hurdle & chase) doesn’t appear to be stacking up that well so far and I’d be quite happy to take MK on. VDR could be the spoiler, hopefully LR’s stamina will come in to play
A good jockey doesn't need orders and a bad jockey couldn't carry them out; so it's best not to give them any.
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