Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Paddy Power Gold Cup 2008
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November 12, 2008 at 14:56 #189345
It’s hard to see how a breathing operation is going to improve him given that his trainer has never stated (to my knowledge) that the horse has had breathing problems.
Copied and pasted from Why They Ran Badly on BHA website regarding the SunAlliance Chase run
P.F. Nicholls, the trainer of SILVERBURN (IRE), which finished fourth, reported that the gelding had a breathing problem.
November 12, 2008 at 15:01 #189346maljimar? with his jumping straightened out.
November 12, 2008 at 16:32 #189364Copied and pasted from Why They Ran Badly on BHA website regarding the SunAlliance Chase run
P.F. Nicholls, the trainer of SILVERBURN (IRE), which finished fourth, reported that the gelding had a breathing problem.
Puffing and panting cos he doesn’t stay 3m doesn’t constitute a breathing problem IMO
November 12, 2008 at 16:48 #189369Ouzbeck was one we are hoping goes very well, however, has been done no favours by the handicapper.
Mahogany Blaze was a horse that i followed last time out when beating by Ashley Brook in the Haldon Gold Cup, however, doesnt seem to be too badly handicapped, but im not sure he will get the trip in my view.
Venetia Williams is of the opinion that Stan, is an improving sort, and could go well in this race, doesnt look badly handicapped, has course and distance form, and the ground shouldnt hamper his chances.
Piraya is a bit of an unknown quantity, however, David Pipe seems quite upbeat about the horses’ chances in the race.
It does look very competitive, and will have to have a closer look at the form and who seems ‘well in’ so to speak.
November 12, 2008 at 17:34 #189377Just had a quick look at the odds on Oddschecker and the first thing that struck me is that Betfred are not even joint best-price on ANY horse, not even one! No horse is more than 50/1 and they have a book % of 223%.
Shameful stuff really.
Back to the race and I keep coming back to Moon Over Miami – dual course winner who disappointed in the RSA Ch in March but that was his first run back after breaking a blood vessel in the Kingmaker Nov Chase 5 weeks previously.
The worry is that he might be a bit "soft" but I think he’s worth an each-way shout at the 33s available (or 25s with Betfred!)
November 12, 2008 at 17:40 #189379Speaking of odds, 7/2 for Silverburn.
Jeez.
It does seem very, very short for what he has actually achieved.
November 12, 2008 at 18:02 #189385I can’t see where they get a mark of 147 for him on some very ordinary looking form in France, or am I missing something?
I’ve watched a few of his races at Auteil- a nice all the way win last September then a purler of a fall in June where he may have been distracted by a horse falling in front of him. To me his form doesn’t look all that superior to Granit Jack’s who got 137 over here and possibly the UK assessor isn’t taking any chances with these imports now.
You need to back a few runs but he’s beaten Remember Rose (IMO a 165+ horse) – it was a year ago in the Prix Orcada and there wasn’t much in it at the time (RR has since stuffed Master Minded at 2 1/2m and hosed up over 3m 3f in the Prix Haye Jousselin on Sunday), as somebody who’s on RR at 150/1 for the Gold Cup and I personally think he’s the business but if Piraya really is as good as that form then he’s a good stone well in.
FWIW I’ve backed Bible Lord at 12’s having been on Acambo at 25’s before they pulled him out.
November 12, 2008 at 18:55 #189398I wouldn’t be reading too much into that Remember Rose form, Martin.
The Jousellin was a truly dreadful event this year, and all Remember Rose had to do was stay the trip to win it. I wouldn’t even have him knocking the door of 155, let alone 10+lbs higher.
Piraya has a wafer-thin piece of collateral form through Polar Rochelais and Tartak that is moderately interesting, though given he actually fell in the race, wafer-thin is possibly too generous an interpretation! Off 147, he surely has it all to do to win on Saturday.
November 12, 2008 at 19:35 #189413For the sake of my 150/1 ante-post bet can we have him on 165 please?
I know there was no Mid Dancer, Princesse D’Anjou, Or Noir De Somoza etc. but he beat was put in front of him and the result wasn’t really in much doubt.
Still no idea what Dean Gallagher was doing on Louping D’Ainay holding it up early on.
November 12, 2008 at 19:54 #189418Just had a quick look at the odds on Oddschecker Back to the race and I keep coming back to Moon Over Miami – dual course winner who disappointed in the RSA Ch in March but that was his first run back after breaking a blood vessel in the Kingmaker Nov Chase 5 weeks previously.
The worry is that he might be a bit "soft" but I think he’s worth an each-way shout at the 33s available (or 25s with Betfred!)
David, I’d just be a little wary as I suspect he’ll run in the 2m h/c on the Sunday.
November 12, 2008 at 20:23 #189427Sky’s The Limit has good form on soft/heavy ground and likes Cheltenham,
November 12, 2008 at 22:21 #189440He ran like a drain at Down Royal under perfect conditions (I know, I backed him!)
Couldn’t have him at any price, even if he lines up, which I’d make a 2/1 shot as he’s always seemed best fresh.November 12, 2008 at 23:56 #189449Can’t agree that Sky’s The Limit is best on soft ground. He’s a good ground horse, though he does act on softer ground (who just happened to win the non-event known as last year’s Drinmore).
November 13, 2008 at 00:17 #189450have decided this is a race to just watch as ground now seems to be drying out….I’m looking for a big priced outsider and I think it’s usually won by something quite well fancied!
November 13, 2008 at 01:24 #189457Judging by Betfair, Jack the Giant looks to be a NR. Anybody have any news, i’ll not bin my ticket just yet!?!
November 13, 2008 at 01:41 #189468Think Henderson is of the opinion Jack The Giant wants good ground. Though he did win on a soft surface at Ascot. I’d say if it is soft / heavy he’ll be a non-runner. On good he’ll run, on good-soft ???????
I myself would run him on good-soft and think he has a reasonable chance.
Mark
Value Is EverythingNovember 13, 2008 at 01:45 #189471The ground has apparently dried-out to Good-to-Soft, Soft in places on all three tracks. Another couple of days with no rain, and I think it will be quick enough for Jack The Giant to be given the benefit of the doubt.
If it doesn’t dry out any further, then I wouldn’t be too optimistic that he’ll run – especially given Henderson already has two confirmed for the race.
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