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Yep, I would agree with the above. Crystal Zvezda, Legatissimo and Jack Naylor as well, with a slight preference for the Stoute-trained filly as I liked her preparation the most. But, very open race which I’m happy to just watch without delving in my pockets. Annoying thing though is I backed Pleascach to win the race since last year. Instead, she bags the Irish Guineas and heads to the Irish Derby instead.
I really like the way Lady Of Dubai won her listed race, okay it wasn’t a strong race, but the cruising speed she showed looked like it would hold up at the highest level for me.
Adam Kirby said that she only needed a flick of the switch and the race was done, no fuss.
Very relaxed style of running which will suit Epsom and no stamina concerns, she just needs to prove that she has class.Adam Kirby for a group 1 classic would be great stuff.
I think her win at Goodwood might have been visually impressive but lacked substance.
I’m not speed ratings expert by any stretch of the imagination but I roughly hand-timed the last stage of Lady of Dubai’s win at Goodwood, she actually ran the finish slower than a maiden winner did later in the same card. Both coming off a slow pace, the maiden winner had to run all the way to the line while Lady of Dubai could coast the final furlong, but still it points to her being a listed/group three filly at best.
My feeling is it’s a big step up for her today and she won’t be quite good enough. In fact increasingly I’m thinking of lumping big on this Legatissimo, already won a classic while the others have to improve a great deal to get close to her.
The only thing against her really is this bad draw in stall one.
You are a hard man to please Stevie! Not sure how you can have been disappointed by Jack Naylor in the Irish Guineas . It was her first run of the year, she was given far too much to do and she finished like a train to be beaten just 2 lengths. Another half a furlong and she might have won. And most bookies paid 4 places anyway!!! She looked for the world to me like a filly in need of further and I expect her to run an almighty race today. As you say she has proven top form in the book unlike many of the others and she has plenty of stamina in her pedigree. For me it will come down to her or the favourite….and I’ll be there to witness it!!!!
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A no bet race for me. I think Legatissimo will win though. 1000 Guineas winner with Montjeu and Shirley Heights on the damn side of her pedigree. It’s going to take some filly to beat her at a mile and a half.
I have backed Jack Naylor at 14/1, would love Jessie Harrington to have an Oaks winner, Lady of Dubai at 16/1, another who stays all day and would like to see Adam Kirby have an Oaks winner and Bellajue 40/1 e.w. as I feel this race is wide open this year and she could pull a surprise. Good luck to all.
If I were a bookie (and i’m not which is probably just as well), i’d be laying this Crystal Zvezda. 4/1 this filly, I’m not even convinced the trip will ideally suit her and she’s up against a Guineas winner bred to stay and some promising fillies bred to be best at a mile and a half. Crystal showed a good turn of foot at Newbury but that screamed “speed” to me.
4/1 is way too short.
There’s plenty of in depth ability on show, Pre-race I’d say the best we’ve had for many years. Jack Naylor, Lady Of Dubai and even Diamondsandrubies look very good fillies. But Legatissimo and Crystal Zvezda are cracking fillies. If my life depended on getting the winner and could choose either those two combined or the field – I’d choose the two. ie I believe Leg and Crystal combined stand a better than 50% chance (Leg 28% and Crystal 23%). At current prices of 3/1 and 9/2 – around 11/8 is on offer about a marginal odds-on shot (imo). By backing the two am getting a price 7.8% better than what I believe to be their combined true chance.
Value Is EverythingThere’s plenty of in depth ability on show, Pre-race I’d say the best we’ve had for many years.
I agree. I think this is a much stronger in depth field than the Derby – pre race.
Would you be sure of Legatissimo staying? I’m not an expert on breeding in the slightest but looking at the RP database there doesn’t look to be a great deal of stamina in Montjeu broodmares albeit I believe this only covers the UK. Danehill Dancer has provided an oaks winner but generally his influence is at lesser distances. Of the two favourites I would prefer the Stoute filly who’s Broodmare sire has a few 12F+ group winners and whose sire has produced some useful middle distance performers.
Just a watching race for me though
Would you be sure of Legatissimo staying? I’m not an expert on breeding in the slightest but looking at the RP database there doesn’t look to be a great deal of stamina in Montjeu broodmares albeit I believe this only covers the UK. Danehill Dancer has provided an oaks winner but generally his influence is at lesser distances. Of the two favourites I would prefer the Stoute filly who’s Broodmare sire has a few 12F+ group winners and whose sire has produced some useful middle distance performers.
Just a watching race for me though
With Montjeu AND Shirley Heights in her pedigree I’d be amazed if she didn’t stay.
You are a hard man to please Stevie! Not sure how you can have been disappointed by Jack Naylor in the Irish Guineas . It was her first run of the year, she was given far too much to do and she finished like a train to be beaten just 2 lengths. Another half a furlong and she might have won. And most bookies paid 4 places anyway!!! She looked for the world to me like a filly in need of further and I expect her to run an almighty race today. As you say she has proven top form in the book unlike many of the others and she has plenty of stamina in her pedigree. For me it will come down to her or the favourite….and I’ll be there to witness it!!!!
It’s not so much Jack Naylor, it’s just the race itself. Everyone seems to be assuming that Found came back to her best in finishing second but I am not sure that was the case. There were a few disappointing efforts in behind and a 33/1 shot was third, not beaten that far.
It’s another half mile today and I’ve seen a lot of horses who finish well over a mile, looking like they are crying out for further, then find a lot less in the finish when upped to a mile and half. A strong finishing burst at a mile may not be assured over the longer trip. Legatissimo’s Guineas win also leaves Jack Naylor with a little ground to make up, although she is not 100% sure to be suited by the extra half mile either, she has won over slightly further already and I think those two factors make her the call over Jessie’s filly.
I think Crystal Zvezda has the most scope, will like the trip and may just be a shade better than the others with form. Time may tell that she beat trees last time but she dismantled her field that day and I thought people who mused that Pamona could reverse the form were making an awful lot of the fact that she was a bit unlucky. Stoute’s filly looked different class to me that day and with more likely to come I can envisage her finishing best of all today to take it up on the run for home.
Enjoy the day Joni.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If I were a bookie (and i’m not which is probably just as well), i’d be laying this Crystal Zvezda. 4/1 this filly, I’m not even convinced the trip will ideally suit her and she’s up against a Guineas winner bred to stay and some promising fillies bred to be best at a mile and a half. Crystal showed a good turn of foot at Newbury but that screamed “speed” to me.
4/1 is way too short.
Crystal Zvezda raced at the back for most of the race last time, I wouldn’t have been that confident 3 furlongs from home that she was going to get involved. It’s only the last couple of furlongs that she starts to get going and she seems to take the commentator by surprise, as Brandybend weakens and he starts to make a case for Montalcino staying on to take it up. It quickly becomes clear that Stoute’s horse is the one that is really quickening up and staying on to take it up.
None of the fillies is the race have won at today’s distance. Diamondsandrubies is probably as near to a certain stayer as you will get here but the form doesn’t excite me. Lady Of Dubai will probably get the trip as well but I think it was a poor race she won, with Jellicle Ball not staying and dropping back to a mile and handicap company next time she runs.
Pedigree’s are one thing, but if we are worrying about speed, surely a Guineas winning run has to cast doubt about whether there is enough stamina as well. OK Legatissimo won by staying on late but it’s still a piece shorter race the won Crystal Zvezda landed.
I reckon Stoute’s horse needs to improve ten pounds but I think she can do so. She was no more than modest last season and is clearly a lot better than that now. I can’t see anything that suggests she won’t stay today and if she can conjure a similar finishing burst today I think she’ll take some beating. Lady Of Dubai at 8/1 looks the poorest value to my eyes. I would lay her for a place in this company.
Frankie’s mount Jazzi Top is friendless, out to 20/1 and his reject Star Of Seville is trading shorter, although still weak. Will the Duffman curse hit Frankie again?
Duffman has a bad feeling about this Lanfranco!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Legatissimo for me – bred to stay and has the best form of all the runners –
and has the assistance of Ryan Moore .Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Well, that was interesting. O’ Brien bred, kept her up his sleeve and I would not be surprised if he told the jockey in previous races to make her look substandard so there wasn’t much attention on her.
Tactical superstar this man.……and I am not being sarcastic, the man is a bona fide genius of the sport. A legend.
Was she the one that went down to the start with Legassitimo looking cool as a cucumber whereas the favourite was on her toes?
Well, that was interesting. O’ Brien bred, kept her up his sleeve and I would not be surprised if he told the jockey in previous races to make her look substandard so there wasn’t much attention on her.
Tactical superstar this man.If you think AOB deliberately lost two classics so he could get a better price in another – you’re crazy Chivers.
In hindsight:
Qualify used to be a front/prominent runner early in her 2 year old career, but improved to win the Weld Park Stakes (7f) suited by coming from the back in a strongly run race. Finished her two year old campaighn in the breeders cup trying the same tactics. Got no sort of run in 8th (would’ve done considerably better with a clear run)…
Ran as if amiss in the English 1000.
Ran ok in Irish 1000, trying to come from the back in a less than truly run Group 1 mile.
Sire a sprinter but dam was a 13f winner and 2nd in the Park Stakes at over 14f, could well have got 2 miles if she’d been tried; by one Derby winner Galileo out of another The Minstrel. So there are reasons why Qualify improved at 1m4f.Well done Eddie Freemantle for tipping her.
Value Is Everything
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