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14 fillies left in the race now. Obviously one or two may drop out yet depending on whether O’Brien sends all of his team or sends Found to the Derby. My old pal Al Naamah is still in there, if Andre Fabre decides to send her over. That would be the ultimate in irony for me if she managed to win this after I backed her so long ago then saw her flop desperately on her second start.
The ones left in are:-
Legatissimo
Crystal Zvezda
Found
Diamondsandrubies
Together Forever
Wedding Vow
Qualify
Star Of Seville
Jazzi Top
Jack Naylor
Bellajeu
Lady Of Dubai
Local Time
Al NaamahRichard Hughes may be riding Crystal Zvezda, so that’s a likely sort to give him a Classic in his final season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dettori has opted for Jazzi Top which I find surprising.
Personally of the pair I have been far more impressed visually by Star of Seville. Going back to that Musidora run, she was slightly fretful in the paddock which would be slightly worrying for Oaks day I must admit, she did ease clear of her rivals in the manner of a class horse. She’ll also travel well at Epsom. William Buick on board instead of the Italian will be a plus rather than a minus.And Jazzi Top has already been beaten at odds on at Kempton.Nothing about Jazzi Top strikes me as a classic winner although I must confess purely on paper she’s the more likely of the pair to get the distance.
I must also admit that looking in the paddock at Together Forever at York, although I was eventually impressed with the way she finished given the condition of her coat, and I did think there was a good chance she’d come on about two stones for the run, I also was shocked by how small she was.
She looked really pony size and Star of Seville looked far more scopey of the two. And was the tiring at the end because she was idling at the end or was she coming to the end of the tether? Detorri clearly thinks it’s the latter, but it wouldn’t be the first time that he’s been wrong.
The small size of the Coolmore filly may have been the reason why O’brien ran Together Forever a lot as a two year old, because he realised she didn’t have the size to train on as a three year old. Found is another rather small filly was campaigned at a high level last year and may not have trained on much from two to three. Then again Together Forever has a lot going in her favour, like she will like the quick ground and she’s almost certain to get the trip.
The other question in my mind is where is the pace coming from? The Oaks far more than the derby for me in recent years has been won by horses that shouldn’t have got the trip on paper, probably because they are far less likely to go a decent gallop in the fillies race. Obrien and Coolmore are always desperate to win the Derby, but if they don’t win the Oaks they will probably just shrug it off and move on. So there’s not the strategy you get in the Derby.
As there’s no obvious front runner in the race I can see Buick making it on Star of Seville and gradually winding it up from the front. If they go no pace I reckon it’ll suit the runners like Star of Seville and the Stoute horse much more than horses like Legatissimo and some of the others who like a decent pace to aim at.
Having said all this (and probably contradicted myself a billion times) I might just double dutch Star of Seville and Together Forever anyway, and hope the musidora form holds up. My gut feeling now is that Gosden, the dominant trainer of these shores might well just do the Derby-Oaks double this year.
Star Of Seville seems weak in the market today, no doubt because she got the bum’s rush from Frankie.
Frankie got off her after the Musidora and said that she was simply idling in front. I said then that I didn’t believe him and it looks like he didn’t believe it either. Star Of Seville had gone a few lengths clear in her previous race and did not idle one iota, so why would she do so next time?
Frankie has said he has watched the Musidora again and decided that Star Of Seville’s stamina “gave in a bit” at the end of the race. I find it surprising that he needed to watch the race to work that out. You would think that he was in the best position in the world to judge how much she had left in the tank as the jockey
So basically, he’s told John Gosden bollocks that she was idling and Gosden said on the day that he took comfort from the fact that Frankie said she was simply idling at the end. Now Frankie’s off her, saying she’s more quirky than Jazzi Top.
Neither of the Gosden fillies looks up to it to me and I knew my fate with Star Of Seville after the Musidora.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Found is out of The Oaks and The Derby.
I did wonder when I saw money coming for her for the Coronation Stakes at Ascot.
I think she is a ridiculous price at 3/1 for the Royal meeting but she won’t be winning the Oaks anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Crystal Zvezda for me. She was hugely impressive last time out and I don’t think the opposition that day is a average as being made out. The second and third are both improving horses, the Meehan horse has ran one poor race but come out and proved that she is better than that with her third behind Crystal Zvezda.
The other horse I really like for the rest of the season is Jazzi Top. I was hoping they would not go down the Oaks route with her, I think she has bags of potential, but she looks a 10f horse to me. I think she may run well but not get home.
Found is out of The Oaks and The Derby.
I did wonder when I saw money coming for her for the Coronation Stakes at Ascot.
I think she is a ridiculous price at 3/1 for the Royal meeting but she won’t be winning the Oaks anyway.
Found is 13/8 for the Coronation Stakes. That’s abysmal for a horse beaten twice this season and farting around at where to go next. Jesus wept indeed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I haven’t so far done any figures for the Oaks but I’m not sure I’ll need to.
The best trial for the race is always the 1000 Guineas, won this year by a filly who, on breeding, should really only be starting to run at 10f.
Her dosage profile ( DP = 4-3-18-7-2 (34) DI = 0.89 CD = 0.00) screams 12f+ and anything achieved until now is just a preamble to better things.
I think she is a good thing. She’d be odds-on in my book.
I must admit that when I saw the guineas I thought this will definitely win the oaks.
My only concern would be that both times she’s been this way around she’s been beaten… and she seemed to struggle in the soft ground behind Stormfly on her first run of the year
it’s clutching at straws I know
If found runs up to her boussac form then she will take all the beating.
That’s the problem though. She hasn’t looked the same horse twice now and I wouldn’t want to be backing at short odds waiting for a bounce back. Her rating has dropped from 117 to 113 this year and I don’t like to see that trend developing at 3yo.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Found is out of The Oaks and The Derby.I did wonder when I saw money coming for her for the Coronation Stakes at Ascot.
I think she is a ridiculous price at 3/1 for the Royal meeting but she won’t be winning the Oaks anyway.
Found is 13/8 for the Coronation Stakes. That’s abysmal for a horse beaten twice this season and farting around at where to go next. Jesus wept indeed.
Found is 2/1 for the Coronation. Looks a three horse race with the French 1000 winner taking on the English and Irish 1000 runner-ups. Don’t blame bookies making Found the favourite, ran right up to her best 2 year old form at The Curragh and possibly more improvement to come. But at the prices prefer Lucida @ 7/2.
Value Is EverythingLegatissimo has been poorly drawn in stall one. Stall one and two are bad for the Oaks apparently, no filly has won from that draw for years.
Anyway it’s seen her price drift out a little and now the Stoute filly is starting to challenge her for favouritism
Together Forever my me at 10/1, liked her comeback run and would expect her to come on for it.
I think Jim Bolger potentially trains the best 1m and 1m 4f 3yo filled around in Lucida and Pleascach though, and would fancy Pleascach to win this if she was in it.
Together Forever my me at 10/1, liked her comeback run and would expect her to come on for it.
I think Jim Bolger potentially trains the best 1m and 1m 4f 3yo filled around in Lucida and Pleascach though, and would fancy Pleascach to win this if she was in it.
I’ve lost £200 in Ante-Post bets on this Tommy and very nearly did ‘Found’,that would have p*ssed me off even more.I’ve watched every race today of the first 4 in the betting and have like yourself taken the 10/1 e/w about Together Forever too.Her Musidora run conceding 4lb proved the 11/2m is right up her street as she stayed on strongly.She improved markedly from her ‘Flame of Tara’ run against the 1000gns winner and Jessies filly so at the prices ours is an e/w good thing imo.
I really like the way Lady Of Dubai won her listed race, okay it wasn’t a strong race, but the cruising speed she showed looked like it would hold up at the highest level for me.
Adam Kirby said that she only needed a flick of the switch and the race was done, no fuss.
Very relaxed style of running which will suit Epsom and no stamina concerns, she just needs to prove that she has class.Adam Kirby for a group 1 classic would be great stuff.
A key race would seem to be last season’s Flame Of Tara, over one mile at The Curragh. Jack Naylor won that race from Legatissimo and Together Forever finished third that day. All three fillies line up again in the Oaks and they have all shown degrees of success since their clash at the end of last August.
Legatissimo needs no introduction, as she lifted the 1000 Guineas. Together Forever went on to win her maiden and then complete a quick hat-trick in the Fillies Mile, where Lucida was beaten favourite. Jack Naylor was not disgraced moving on to be third in the Group 1 Boussac and 4th in the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas, where she had a lot to do under Richard Hughes.
The question now is what order these three fillies will finish in this time around. Legatissimo made her claim with a hugely improved effort in winning the 1000 Guineas. Pricewise put her up and she started shorter than I expected her form would actually warrant. She came late that day and suggested her future lay over further but jockey and trainer seemed at odds as to whether the Oaks was the logical next step.
Together Forever rallied and gave Star Of Seville a fright in the Musidora, she’s entitled to come on a lot for her first run but the vibes have been bad for Star Of Seville, the punters have never really warmed to her as an Oaks winner and the bluster from Frankie at the time that she was merely idling in front looks a classic slice of BS, as he has deserted her for another non certain stayer. I am questioning how good that Musidora was this year and always held concerns that Together Forever showed by far her best piece of form on the soft when successful in the Fillies Mile.
Jack Naylor hasn’t won the last twice since toppling her two old rivals. She again finished behind Found in the Irish 1000 Guineas and didn’t seem to get the most inspired of rides that day. Her stable mate Bocca Baciata was actually half her odds that day, and I was disappointed with her, having thought her a good each-way bet, particularly when considering she had beaten the winner the last time they met. My feeling was it wasn’t the greatest race in the world but others seem to think it will work out well enough. What puts me off is that she has another half mile to travel now, and that’s a fair bit to be taking on trust, even when pedigree may say it’s a given.
Coming back to Legatissimo, it would have been nice to have seen Lucida run again to gauge the form. We know Toggy Wiggy didn’t stay the trip and the 4th horse Malabar was woeful in Ireland. Different options were mooted for Legatissimo before it was announced that the Oaks was the most likely target. Found sidesteps this, so you have to assume the Coolmore team were happy to let Wachman’s filly do the business instead. Again though, she is facing a full extra half mile and at shortish odds it’s always a slight concern, for all that she’s way ahead on the ratings. A previous poster has said the Guineas is the key trial but I’m not seeing that myself in recent years.
I can see why people will make cases for all three of these fillies to be able to win this race and it will probably be easy to track back to the race I mentioned at the start and follow a logical path to why the one of the three won the Oaks. For me though, there is another filly lurking, who I think has a lot more to come and has the look of the winner to her.
Crystal Zvezda came into Newbury at 33/1 for the Oaks and it was not hard to see why. She had a win to her name but it was a pretty grim looking maiden that earned her a rating of 78. She put up a superb performance that day though and emerged rated 107 and that’s a serious sign of being a totally different horse at the age of three to what she was at two. Initially I felt there was an overreaction in cutting her to 8/1 but watching the race again and again I became more convinced that, not only would she hold Pamona if they met again, but she might just improve and win this Oaks. Weighing it all up I felt 5/1 was worthy of a bet. I think Crystal Zvezda is probably the most assured stayer of the leading contenders and will also be the one most likely to cope if it is fast ground. She had plenty on last time out if you look at where she was with 2f to go. Pulled out, she fairly picks up and scoots away in the end. The trainer will have left a bit to work with, I can’t find a negative with her and I think she will swoop past them and win by two or three lengths tomorrow. I’ll take Legatissimo for second and Jack Naylor for third.
Good luck.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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