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Yeah I’m also not sure? Pretty sure trainer said she’d be prepping in Irish 1000 – then checked entries and saw she wasn’t in it! Huge price on the machine.
The pennies finally dropped for those who saw Pamona run a lovely Oaks trial last saturday but lumped on the winner Crystal Zvezda instead.Incredibly the impressive winner gats hammered into 8’s straight after the race but the unlucky runner-up still gets quotes of 40/1.To my eyes Luca Cumanis filly will give the Stoute filly a run for her money at Epsom and at those prices the 40/1 was the obvious choice.Today however sees a drastic cut in price to 16/1 with Bet365 and only 20’s with others..The 40/1 has gone and she’ll shorten again come Oaks day.
The pennies finally dropped for those who saw Pamona run a lovely Oaks trial last saturday but lumped on the winner Crystal Zvezda instead.Incredibly the impressive winner gats hammered into 8’s straight after the race but the unlucky runner-up still gets quotes of 40/1.To my eyes Luca Cumanis filly will give the Stoute filly a run for her money at Epsom and at those prices the 40/1 was the obvious choice.Today however sees a drastic cut in price to 16/1 with Bet365 and only 20’s with others..The 40/1 has gone and she’ll shorten again come Oaks day.
I was probably a bit harsh on Pamona after her run behind Crystal Zvezda. I thought Cumani’s filly would win that race because the Stoute filly had won a truly awful race at Lingfield and despite positive reports from the gallops I felt her lowly rating of 78 left her a bit to make up with Pamona on form.
As these things tend to do, it blew up in my face as the Stoute filly won in style and improved her rating by a whopping 29 lbs up to a new mark of 107. Pamona went up from 90 to 98 but she’s clearly better than that mark and just didn’t get the chance to show it with the way the race went for her.
My concerns are that Pamona has a bit to make up with the Stoute filly, who could also be improving still, and that ties to my second, general, concern as to both fillies having a bit to go still to catch the Guineas level of form and the top juvenile form from last year.
This Sunday’s Irish Guineas will give us more clues, with several nice potentially nice fillies taking on Found from the O’Brien team. Found has been pretty weak in the Oaks betting but she is favourite for the Irish Guineas and a win there would put the cat amongst the pigeons for the Oaks.
Newmarket Guineas winner Legatissimo is well documented on the stamina concern front. Her trainer said yesterday that nothing is set in stone at the moment but that Epsom and The Oaks is her most likely port of call. She is a 116 rated filly, so, for now, she is a little bit ahead of Crystal Zvezda and more so over Pamona. Of course a change of trip can be a great leveller but Wachman’s filly seemed very much a staying winner of the Guineas than a fast one and I have doubts she’ll stay at the top over a mile this season.
I think much will depend on how Found performs this weekend as to where Legatissimo, in the same ownership, will head and looking at others who may yet emerge I am interested to see how Jellicle Ball will perform at Goodwood today in the Height Of Fashion stakes after her Guineas flop last time.
I had been waiting to see if there was a reason for the Invincible Spirit filly running so badly last time after having backed her at 40/1 for that and seen her odds tumble. None had been forthcoming but Gosden has said that she was heavily in season that day and that she is now out of season. I was in season myself for a few days after that abysmal Guineas run and I hope she can at least put that run behind her and show that my faith at 40/1 was more than a pipe dream.
I can’t see Pamona winning the Oaks but she could well place, particularly if the field thins out by then. 40/1 may indeed have been a big price and I wish those who took the plunge all the best. The next few days should be very informative.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very nice performance and plenty of cruising speed before hitting the button. That was after more than 200 days off the track, so will come on again for that. I’m interested.
Lady Of Dubai impressive at Goodwood !! Lively Oaks outsider maybe ???
Her odds have come right in and she is a best priced 16/1 now. I briefly saw odds shorter still but I think Cumani said he wasn’t sure if she would go to the Oaks and needs to speak to the owner.
John Gosden’s Jellicle Ball was ominously weak in the betting today and ran very poorly, beaten a long way from home and she looks a horse who has gone backwards, rather than forwards since her good second in the Fred Darling. She had the excuse of being in season put forward for her effort at Newmarket but was very disappointing today. Her 102 rating looks a bit generous to me now.
Lady Of Dubai is an interesting prospect and it did no harm to see the horse who beat her in the Montrose Stakes last back-end, Irish Rookie, go close when second in the French 1000 Guineas recently, after a decent run in the Newmarket version.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jack Naylor, trained by Jessica Harrington being aimed at the Oaks after finishing strongly for 4th in the Irish 1000 guineas. I had her each way for the guineas and me being the smart alec I am, put her on my account paying 3 places when plenty were paying 4.
Currently around 14/1 for the Oaks, she is of particular interest after I remember a short interview after Jack Naylor ran a good third behind Found over in Longchamp.
Mrs Harrington stated that JN would be put into the guineas (she said in England, plans changed) for a big test and would be racing over further for definite throughout the season as she will no doubt get the distance.
The Oaks this year is really exciting and so open to debate.I have watched the Crystal Zvezda and Pamona race a few times and am struck by the huge contrast of the way the two fillies move. Pamona has a markedly slower action and covers more ground per stride but I think she will be a filly who takes time to wind up to full pace. She looks the type who would struggle to pick up quickly if she was to meet interference in a race. Crystal Zvezda on the other hand has a fast action, almost seeming to put twice as many strides in compared to Cumani’s filly. She relies on cadence rather than stride length and I think she will always be a handier type for a track like Epsom. She was very impressive and although her odds are cramped now, there is little sense that there is a Superstar lurking in wait.
Found could head to the Derby but Legatissimo is said to be likely to run in the Oaks and the trainer is now saying he thinks she will relish the extra test of stamina, somewhat at odds with the jockey’s feeling after the Guineas. Gosden saddles tow but Jazzi Top’s form took a bit of a knock when the runner up behind her was thrashed next time. John Gosden has said there is nothing in Star Of Seville’s pedigree to suggest she will get a mile and a half but he feels she may well get the trip. I was a bit disappointed that she was nearly caught after looking to have put the race to bed last time but the trainer reckons she simply idled in front. I’m not so sure and she certainly didn’t idle in front on her previous start, so why would she choose to do so now? I initially thought she would stay but her last start worries me. Fans of Together Forever will be adamant that she can catch Star Of Seville at Epsom and turn it around.
I can’t say exactly why but I just don’t seem enthused about Jack Naylor here. If Found does line up I think she may well be capable of holding Jessica Harrington’s horse. I didn’t think either Jack Naylor or Bocca Baciata was ideally served by being in the Irish Guineas and I am not sure how hot the form will pan out. Kissed By Angels, Malabar and Raydara all ran stinkers and 33/1 shot Devonshire was third. I could be completely wrong but I’m looking elsewhere for the winner.
It is wide open, that is for sure and it should be intriguing to find out if any of the classier ones will stay. I’d be leaning towards Stoute’s filly now, she really took a massive step forward from a lousy looking Lingfield race to lay down her marker.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I have watched the Crystal Zvezda and Pamona race a few times and am struck by the huge contrast of the way the two fillies move. Pamona has a markedly slower action and covers more ground per stride but I think she will be a filly who takes time to wind up to full pace. She looks the type who would struggle to pick up quickly if she was to meet interference in a race. Crystal Zvezda on the other hand has a fast action, almost seeming to put twice as many strides in compared to Cumani’s filly. She relies on cadence rather than stride length and I think she will always be a handier type for a track like Epsom. She was very impressive and although her odds are cramped now, there is little sense that there is a Superstar lurking in wait.
Pandora and Pamona my 2 Ante-Post wagers for the Oaks are out of the race and TAPK is left clutching at straws..I do like your appraisal of Crystal Zvezda though Steve,sadly the price is so short I’d just about get my money back!
What happened with Pamona Gord? I’ve seen nothing about her and she was still quoted across the boards when I looked on Oddschecker. I have noted that Lady Of Dubai is the shorter of the two now though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I see Cumani has said that Pamona will bypass the Oaks and go to Royal Ascot. Still plenty of firms quoting her for the Oaks this morning though.
Found varies between 3/1 and 7/1 for this with the possibility that she might go for the Derby. I think she has no chance in the Derby and I’d be laying her at 3/1 for the Oaks if I were a gambling man.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Jazzi Top has a form line that is looking okay now through Zannda with the Irish Guineas winner which puts about five pounds or so behind Found which is certainly not insurmountable and is available at 14/1 which is big comparing it to Found.
But you can confuse yourself with form lines because Star of Seville has the beating of Jazzi Top on a form line through Amaze Me !!I know I have said it before but this race is very tricky compared to the Derby and IMO is worth having a punt on something at a decent price because the market leaders have serious doubts over them regarding trip . It is a long stretch to go from a mile up to a mile and a half and the pace is generally slower than mile races which may make it harder to settle milers moving up in trip.
Wehave seen many many times top class milers not getting home at Epsom over a mile and a half and IMO this will happen next Friday with the favourite but hey what do I know ??I initially though Legatissimo had a great chance of winning what looks an uninspiring Oaks. She won the Guineas through staying, rather than speed and I wouldn’t quite put the same stamina concerns to the fore that I would for a faster looking Guineas winner.
A slight concern is that nothing that ran in any of Legatissimo’s last three races has actually won since. Irish Rookie ran well in the French version but I think she made her challenge too early at Newmarket and actually did the same again in France. I wouldn’t take Legatissimo’s margin of superiority over Martyn Meade’s filly too literally.
The jockey and trainer seem at odds about Legatissimo getting the trip, I have slight concerns if she will last it out but worry more whether she was a good Guineas winner in the first place. We know Tiggy Wiggy didn’t stay, yet she was able to hold all but two of them off. Redstart and Jellicle Ball, who were 1-2 at Newbury in the Fred Darling both ran like drains in the Guineas. Fadhayyil was a shade disappointing for me but her bandage unravelled and was flapping about her leg in the closing stages, a possible distraction, and I feel Barry Hills missed a trick in not giving her a prep race. Guineas 4th Malabar stank the place out in the Irish version and I am not getting excited by the standard of this years Guineas, feeling at the time that Lucida was probably the horse to take going forward.
It’s a messy affair and would take Crystal Zvezda as a straight forward looking option on the upgrade at the right time. John Gosden was quite taken by her and felt she is the one to beat. I have concerns on both Gosden Fillies. I backed Star Of Seville at 14/1 but was disappointed the way she nearly got caught last time after looking like winning well. I don’t believe it was just idling in front that caused that and I feel she won’t last home.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I thought after Diamondsandrubies won at Chester she had a great chance in an average Oaks and backed her @ 14/1. Since then though, I’ve come to the conclusion this is an above average renewal. Laid Diamondsandrubies back at a shorer price for a bet to nothing.
Value Is EverythingUninspiring Oaks? Why is it uninspiring?
You have the 1000 guineas winner, who the way she ran on there looked ideal for stepping up to a mile and a half. Crystal Zvezda, who looked visually stunning at Newbury. Lady of Dubai who looked the same at Goodwood. Travelled and quickened like a dream and the jockey was raving about her afterwards. Found, who was the top juvenile filly last year and ran on very well in the Irish 1000 guineas. Rather than uninspiring, I’d say it was one of the better renewals of this race and currently looks a stronger race than the Derby.
Then you have the two Gosden fillies. I was at York for the Musidora and watching together forever in the paddock she looked in much worse condition than the winner of that race, Star of Seville.
In fact her coat looked in truly woeful condition and her ribs were showing. I’m no great paddock judge but I would assume that would mean she might come on for her race.
In fact I texted my mate beforehand to say to lay her for all he’s worth as she couldn’t possibly win in that state. But she nearly did, running on very well and O’brien often runs his best Oaks filly at York, so at 10-1 I’d say she was the value.
Certainly she should get the trip no problem so looks a good each-way bet for the race. I remember Alexandrova getting stuffed in the Musidora by Short Skirt and then scooting up in the Oaks, Together Forever probably wouldn’t be in that league but I can’t have her out of the frame.
Uninspiring Oaks? Why is it uninspiring?
You have the 1000 guineas winner, who the way she ran on there looked ideal for stepping up to a mile and a half. Crystal Zvezda, who looked visually stunning at Newbury. Lady of Dubai who looked the same at Goodwood. Travelled and quickened like a dream and the jockey was raving about her afterwards. Found, who was the top juvenile filly last year and ran on very well in the Irish 1000 guineas. Rather than uninspiring, I’d say it was one of the better renewals of this race and currently looks a stronger race than the Derby.
Then you have the two Gosden fillies. I was at York for the Musidora and watching together forever in the paddock she looked in much worse condition than the winner of that race, Star of Seville.
In fact her coat looked in truly woeful condition and her ribs were showing. I’m no great paddock judge but I would assume that would mean she might come on for her race.
In fact I texted my mate beforehand to say to lay her for all he’s worth as she couldn’t possibly win in that state. But she nearly did, running on very well and O’brien often runs his best Oaks filly at York, so at 10-1 I’d say she was the value.
Certainly she should get the trip no problem so looks a good each-way bet for the race. I remember Alexandrova getting stuffed in the Musidora by Short Skirt and then scooting up in the Oaks, Together Forever probably wouldn’t be in that league but I can’t have her out of the frame.
I don’t think the race has anywhere near the strength in depth that others do.
I have seen a million tips for the race and that’s always a sign to me that they are either all very good, or all very average. Over the years, I know which way it normally pans out.
I don’t think much of the Guineas. So many fillies missed the race and it said it all that a 9f Gowran winner was second favourite and managed to mow down Lucida and a non-stayer. Just being a Guineas winner doesn’t make it a good Guineas winner. There seemed plenty of doubt if she would even go for the Oaks.
The Irish Guineas saw Found nearly up to winning it after being beaten by a 25/1 shot in her previous race, Found hasn’t convinced me this season so far, they are toying with putting her in the Derby as well.
Crystal Zvezda is the most exciting prospect but the third horse that day, Pamona, doesn’t even run in the Oaks now. Lady Of Dubai won well but Jellicle Ball was weak as a kitten in the betting and was pretty ifeless again, I don’t think she stays 10f and only time will tell if Lady Of Dubai was as exciting as she looked.
I don’t think either of the Gosden fillies will win this, I don’t think either of them is good enough and I get the feeling the trainer feels pretty much the same.
We will see as the season progresses but I think the French filly Queens Jewel will sort these out if they clash later in the year. For me you could throw three darts at the Oaks and score 180 or just as likely hit bed and breakfast (26)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree on together forever as she looks the typical late developing Obrien filly like peeping fawn and ran a great race at York and looks a cracking bet at 10-1. Found has disappointed so far but ryan Moore gave her a lot to do at the curragh and was running on strongly and got beat by a rapidly improving filly. Legatissamo looked a cracking winner of the guineas and looks the worthy favourite. This race does look stronger to me than the Derby and will put my wee wager on together forever.
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